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Farmer Gao Yongfei pays much more attention to his more than 5,000 pigs than ever before.
This is because hundreds of pigs on neighboring farms are dying of a mysterious virus, and Gao and his staff are now vigilantly checking his herd for the symptoms of African swine fever.
"You know that the pig is sick if his mouth has become dark and that he is going crazy," says the owner of Yongfei's 64-year-old breeding farm. "When you find a pig that has a fever, you have to shoot it immediately."
Yongfei Livestock Farm is located in Yueqing, a town in southeastern China's Zhejiang province, the third in China where authorities reported an outbreak of African swine fever in mid-August. Since then, there have been seven additional outbreaks, one every few days, each hundreds of kilometers away. In a little over a month, 897 pigs died and nearly 20,000 were slaughtered in an attempt to prevent the spread of the virus.
"It spreads very quickly and this disease is very dangerous," says Gao. "We are all scared."
Scientists are also worried. Jurgen Richt, professor of veterinary medicine at Kansas State University, is an expert on African swine fever. He says that although the virus does not affect humans, it has shown an ability to kill swine herds quickly. It's very contagious and the infected pigs die within five to ten days.
"And it's not just the problem that this virus is deadly for pigs," says Richt. "The problem is that we do not have a vaccine, the only strategy we have is to keep it under control and keep it out of uninfected areas."
This could prove difficult in a country like China, says Richt, which is home to more than 700 million hogs, about half of the world's population. "It's really big because it hits the world's largest pork population."
Richt says that another challenge is that the virus can also be carried by wild boars and ticks, both of which live in China. Richt also worries that many pigs in China live on backyard farms, which are difficult to regulate and control by the authorities.
In early August, China recorded its first outbreak of African swine fever in the northeastern city of Shenyang. Scientists believe that the pigs may have eaten food left over from a train coming directly from Russia, and that among the infected pigs, there was some of the waste.
Less than two weeks later, pigs nearly 1,000 kilometers from Zhengzhou City in central China were infected. Three days later, nearly 800 miles south of Yueqing City, a Gao farmer, another outbreak. Scientists believe that the virus has spread so quickly because of the hog shipping in China by farmers and buyers.
Pan Chenjun, an agricultural analyst with Rabobank, a Hong Kong-based Dutch banking company, says the spread of the virus will have a big impact on how pork is bought and sold in China. "The direct impact on pork is that China may be paying more for supplying pork from other countries," Pan says.
And it will be tricky now that China is in a trade war with the United States and has imposed tariffs on imported American pork. Pan says China will probably turn to European pork suppliers.
Back in the pig farm in Zhejiang Province, Gao fears that China will turn to the pigs of other countries. "Pork is an important part of the Chinese diet," he says. "That's two-thirds of our meat consumption, so if we start importing pork, I will not earn as much money."
But Gao should do well for the moment: pork prices in his part of China have increased by 23% since the outbreak of African swine fever. The key, he says, is to keep his pigs healthy – something that will become harder to do because this virus is spreading all over China.
The assistant of NPR Shanghai office, Xu Yuhan, helped research on this story.
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DAVID GREENE, HOST:
China is home to about half of the world's pig population. This is why the authorities are trying to contain the outbreaks of African swine fever. It is a deadly virus that has killed thousands of pigs and is spreading rapidly. This could lead to price spikes. And it's a big problem in China, which is the biggest consumer of pork in the world. NPR's Rob Schmitz has more.
(SOUNDBITE OF PIGS SNORTING)
ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: Farmer Gao Yongfei has never paid more attention to his herd of more than 5,000 pigs. This is because just over a week ago, hundreds of pigs on neighboring farms began to die from a mysterious virus. And now, Gao and his team are checking his stock to detect the symptoms of African swine fever.
GAO YONGFEI: (By the interpreter) You know that the pig is sick if his mouth has become dark and that he is acting like crazy. When you find a pig that has a fever, you have to shoot it immediately.
(SOUNDBITE OF PIG SNORTING)
SCHMITZ: The Gao pig farm is located in Yueqing, a town in southeastern China's Zhejiang Province. It was the third place in China where authorities have reported an outbreak of African swine fever since the beginning of August. In just over a month, about 900 pigs died and tens of thousands of people were killed in an attempt to prevent the spread of the virus.
GAO: (By the interpreter) It spreads very quickly and this disease is very dangerous. We are all afraid.
SCHMITZ: Scientists too. Juergen Richt, professor of veterinary medicine at Kansas State University, is an expert on African swine fever. He says that although the virus does not affect humans, it is shown that it is capable of killing swine herds quickly. It is very contagious and infected pigs die within 5 to 10 days.
JUERGEN RICHT: This is not just the problem that this virus is deadly for pigs; the problem is also that we do not have a vaccine.
SCHMITZ: And without a vaccine, says Richt, China is particularly vulnerable.
RICHT: It's really big because it hits the largest pig population in the world.
SCHMITZ: And the virus traveled fast. In early August, China registered its first home in Shenyang City, in northeastern China. Scientists believe that the pigs have eaten remnants of infected pig from neighboring Russia. Less than two weeks later, pigs separated by nearly a thousand kilometers were infected. Two days later, 800 miles south of Yueqing City, a farmer from Gao, another outbreak. Pan Chenjun, senior agricultural analyst at Rabobank in Hong Kong, said the spread of the virus would have a major impact on how pork is bought and sold in China.
PAN CHENJUN: The direct impact on pork is that China may have to pay more to get enough pork from other countries.
Mr. SCHMITZ: And that, Pan said, will be tricky now that China is in a trade war with the United States and has imposed tariffs on imported American pork. Pan says China will probably turn to European pork suppliers.
(SOUNDBITE OF PIGS SNORTING)
SCHMITZ: Back in the pig farm in Zhejiang Province, farmer Gao Yongfei fears that China will turn to the pigs of other countries.
GAO: (By the interpreter) Pork is an important part of the Chinese diet. It accounts for two-thirds of our meat consumption. If we start importing pork, I will not earn as much money.
SCHMITZ: But the farmer Gao will do well for the moment. Pork prices in its part of China have increased by 23% since the outbreak of African swine fever. The key, he says, is to keep his pigs healthy, which will become harder to do because this virus is spreading throughout China.
Rob Schmitz, NPR News, Zhejiang Province. Transcription provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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