Deceptive or non-deceptive, Fed interest rate hike in December looks like "agreement reached" after strong jobs report



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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would tighten faster if inflation rose significantly

The strong October employment report confirms the consensus that the Federal Reserve will again raise its interest rates in December.

"December is largely a fait accompli," said Kathy Bostjancic, an economist at Oxford Economics.

"It's a very good report at all levels," she said.

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Jim O'Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, said: "The data remains strong enough for the Fed to continue to tighten."

"Nothing in this report will let the Fed think that skipping the December rally is a good idea," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Although wage growth has crossed the 3% threshold, the monthly increase has only increased by 0.2%, which "is not alarming" for the Fed, said Bostjancic.

"The data will not push the Fed to be more aggressive. They can continue to be progressive, "she said.

Bostjancic said that she believed the Fed would increase three times in 2019, which is its median forecast. The central bank could be more aggressive if it started to see inflation rise.

The Fed will tighten more quickly if core inflation increases "significantly" above 2%.

The criticism of President Donald Trump "will not make the Fed deviate from its course," she said.

The increased volatility of the financial markets will not change the Fed's willingness to increase in December, said Ellen Zentner, chief economist at Morgan Stanley.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors forecast a 75% rate hike by a quarter point in December.

However, the market continues to see fewer Fed hikes in 2019 than the central bank expects, forecasting only 2 next year.

The Fed interest rate committee will meet next week but, without a press conference, no interest rate changes are expected. Next year, Fed President Jerome Powell will hold press conferences after all political meetings.

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