Deliberations of the Selection Committee of the University Football Playoffs

By the time the 13 members of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee meet for the first time this season in Grapevine, Texas, and release their first ranking on October 30, they will know who is the leader in SEC East, like the Florida A game against Georgia (or a Georgia-Florida match) this weekend will help determine that.

They will know that Alabama is still undefeated, with the Tide and LSU both excluded this week before their showdown, which could be the most important game in November. The committee will also know that the Big 12, Pac-12 and Big Ten will be assured of training the champions of the conference with at least one defeat, as there are no more undefeated teams in these leagues. Certainty stops there.

C & # 39; do not your Associated Press Top 25 weekly poll.

The new chairman of the committee, Rob Mullens, director of sports for Oregon, said the process was "completely different".

"We start only after the 9th week, so everything is based on the work done so far, the results so far, the summary so far," he said. "It's not based on any projection, future performance or even earlier, it's 100% based on the results of week 9, when our first ranking will be released."

Because of this philosophy, he said, supporters and coaches can expect fluidity.

"It's changing from week to week," he said. "It's the beauty of college football, is not it? There is an incredible passion, there are a lot of great teams, and when we start every week at zero, getting based only on the results, things happen. "

The way in which the selection committee, with its six new members, chooses to prioritize data, such as the strength of the timeline, remains an ambiguous and subjective process. Here is an overview of the best scenarios to follow when the first ranking will be published next Tuesday:

How will the top three unbeaten teams go?

Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame are all likely to figure in the first top four, but there could be a debate on the order. They all have a similar resume with three wins each against Power 5 opponents over .500. Clemson and Notre Dame have two victories on teams ranked in the top 25, while Alabama has one (Texas A & M). They share common opponents, which is another factor considered by the committee (Alabama and Clemson both defeated Texas A & M, Clemson and Notre Dame both defeated Wake Forest). No one in the country, however, has been as dominant as Alabama. It is more likely that Alabama is in first place and the discussion revolves around numbers 2, 3 and 4. And yes, it is certainly possible for a team with a loss to be ranked in front of an undefeated team.

Who will be the most ranked team in the ranking a loss?

There is an abundance of options to consider, but few teams (even the undefeated ones) can match the LSU CV. The Tigers defeated five Power 5 opponents with a combined record of 25-12. Although only one of these teams, Georgia, is currently ranked in the AP Top 25, the committee will recognize that each opponent of the Power 5, LSU, has beaten more than .500.

Michigan and Texas can also make their case, although Michigan's loss to Notre Dame is much better than Texas's defeat of Maryland. Head-to-head results will also help to solve the problem, as Texas has left Oklahoma their only loss, and Georgia and Florida will have two defeats in the committee vote.

Texas is not back … but how far is it?

The Longhorns are an intriguing team at a loss, which was lost against an inspired and emotional team from Maryland during the opening match of the FedEx field season. The committee would look into all the special circumstances surrounding this match: Maryland is playing for the first time since the death of teammate Jordan McNair on June 13, under the interim head coach and not far from the field of attack Terps. Yet Texas played badly in this game and Maryland is hardly a juggernaut. How will the committee weigh this loss? And would Texas have a sufficient resume to defeat him if he wins the Big 12? All could be questionable if the Longhorns do not survive their tough trip to Oklahoma State this week.

At what level will UCF unbeaten be ranked?

The top 5 ranked conference champion is guaranteed a spot in the New Year's tournament, but after finishing last season as the only unbeaten FBS team, UCF and its fans are demanding more. Consideration for the playoffs is unlikely, given that the strength of the calendar is so important, but with six new members of the committee, it is impossible to predict the Knights cap. At the time of the CFP, only two teams of the Group of 5 played in the bowl-free season: West Michigan 2016 (13-0) and UCF 2017 (12-0). In this final ranking of the CFP, West Michigan ranked 15th and the UCF 12th. Last season, after the UCF defeated Auburn in the Chick-Thread-A Peach Bowl, CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock defended the commissioners' No. 12 Knights.

"To qualify for the playoffs, teams must stick to a tight schedule against the right teams, which is the way for all teams to stand out and be ranked among the best by the committee," said Hancock. "UCF is an excellent team, but you should always consider teams that have been beaten and beaten during the regular season."

The current schedule of the UCF conference is the 125th.

How does the committee see the Pac-12?

Everyone in the central selection room will tell you that they do not rank conferences, but teams. While this is true, the number of Pac-12 teams in the top 25 will indicate how much the league is considered and whether the conference is really out of the mix or if it still has a glimmer of hope. Washington State is the only Pac-12 team to lose that remains, but there is a plethora of two-casualty teams that could impact the Cougars' resume. What is the ranking level of Washington State and how does the committee sort two Pac-12 defeat teams? Although the Pac-12 has been criticized, it currently has five teams ranked in the AP poll, including four in the North Division. The only FBS conference that has more is the SEC (six). The ranking indicates that the Pac-12 is deeper than the ACC and as deep as the Big Ten. Would the committee give more credit to the Pac-12 than to the court of public opinion?

It's not because a team does not start in the top 10 that they can not finish in the top four. Ohio State (# 16 in 2014) and Oklahoma (# 15 in 2015) have both qualified for the playoffs after starting out of the top 10. No losing Power 5 team to win a conference can be ruled out – at least not yet. This means that you will keep an eye on Iowa this week, because if the Hawkeyes succeed in taking revenge on Penn State, they may have the best chance of slowly climbing the ladder. The Nittany Lions are the only remaining opponent, Iowa is not favored to beat, according to ESPN Football Power Index, but the Hawkeyes have a second tough consecutive trip to Purdue on November 3rd. They also need Wisconsin to lose again because the Badgers are the masters of the game in the division.