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A new USA TODAY / Suffolk University poll reveals what really concerns voters preparing for the November mid-term elections.
UNITED STATES TODAY & # 39; HUI
WASHINGTON – Representative Barbara Comstock became the first Republican to lose a seat at the US House Tuesday in a wealthy northern suburb of Virginia, according to forecasts by CNN and NBC News.
Democrat Jennifer Wexton, Senator and former Attorney for Domestic Violence, overthrew the two-term MP. Comstock tried to stand out from Trump, but failed in a district that became increasingly democratic. Hillary Clinton won here in 2016 by 10 percentage points and the political disabled expected a defeat of Comstock.
This early result came as voters across the United States went to the polls Tuesday after a final blitz of TV commercials, campaign direct mail and electoral rallies as part of the fight for control of the House .
As election day approached, dozens of polls held across the country revealed that they were too close to be called. According to the latest polls, Democrats had a slight advantage to win the majority of seats in the House, but the end result remained unpredictable.
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"We are going to win tonight," said California Representative Nancy Pelosi, Democratic House Leader, in an interview with PBS NewsHour on Tuesday night.
Also addressing PBS, Ronna Romney McDaniel, president of the Republican National Committee, said it could be a "tough night," while hopefully allowing the GOP to retain its majority in the House.
Democrats must get 23 seats in the House to prevent Republicans from taking control of it. The battlefield extends across the country – with over 70 highly contested races from New Jersey to California.
At stake: President Donald Trump's program for the next two years. If Democrats win the majority, they can use the aggressive congressional control powers to demand Trump's tax returns, summon members of his cabinet to appear, and investigate allegations of corruption in the executive branch. And they can block the president's legislative priorities, whether it's funding a wall along the US-Mexico border or limiting rights-granting programs.
If Republicans remain in power, Trump will be able to pursue a broad conservative agenda over the next two years – including radical immigration policies, the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and the 39, lowering environmental regulations.
The president's party usually loses its seats in the mid-term elections. In 2006, President George W. Bush called the election results "shocking" when his party lost 30 seats in the House and six in the Senate, giving control of both houses to the Democrats and ushering in the first woman president, Mrs. Nancy Pelosi. President Barack Obama, in 2010, described the debate as "slyly" when the Democrats lost 63 seats – and control of the House of Representatives – and six seats in the Senate because of the rise of the Tea Party movement.
Tuesday's results will also set the stage for the 2020 presidential campaign. A GOP victory in this election would put Trump in a strong position to win a second term and strengthen his control over the Republican party. A Democratic victory would boost the so-called liberal "resistance" and strengthen a party still grappling with Trump's surprise victory in 2016.
Trump spent the last days of the 2018 campaign intensifying his anti-immigrant rhetoric and introducing Democrats as followers of immigration. He promised to close the border with Mexico, saying that a caravan of migrants included "unknowns from the Middle East" and was threatening to build "tent cities" to prevent people from entering the country. country.
Democrats said Trump was using fear to motivate GOP voters. They have dedicated much of their energy and advertising dollars to health care – congratulating Republicans for their efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act and put in place protections for people with pre-existing conditions. .
Voters were concerned about these topics as they went to the polls, according to a survey conducted by Washington Post-Schar School in battlefield districts across the country.
The survey found that 44% of voters said health care was the most important factor for voting, while 43% said Trump was the main factor behind their decision. Immigration and the economy were about 10 percentage points below, according to post-Schar data.
Early indications as to whether Tuesday will bring a blue wave, a red wave or neither, will begin to appear after the polls close in the main states of the East Coast and Midwest, beginning at 18:00. Eastern Standard Time. But the full results will only be available at midnight or later, with voters in California and other Western states ending their vote.
With dozens of tight races going up to the wire, the election day battle can even last for days, with possible recounts across the country. Here are the key races to watch:
More: What is at stake in the midterms? Both parties warn that the future of our democracy is under threat
First indications to the east
7th district of Virginia
Representative Dave Brat, in Virginia's 7th congressional district in Virginia, was shocked in 2014 by the overthrow of GOP Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Brat is now a member of the hard line defense caucus. In this election, he faces Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer, and the competition is surprisingly competitive in a reliable red district.
President Donald Trump won this seat by 7 percentage points in 2016. Therefore, if Spanberger wins, this augurs a good night for the Democrats, said Dave Wasserman, editor of the non-partisan political report. Cook. He said that this race was one of the best beginners for the Democrats' performance Tuesday.
3rd and 7th districts of New Jersey
There is a handful of GOP-held seats that are now competitive across the state. The two most vulnerable Republicans are Representative Tom MacArthur (in the 3rd District of New Jersey) and Representative Leonard Lance (in the 7th State). MacArthur helped draft the bill on the repeal of Obamacare, which turned negative for House Republicans. MacArthur also voted in favor of tax cuts led by the GOP, which, according to his Republican compatriots from New Jersey, and even the state chamber of commerce, would hurt the state.
The 26th and 27th districts of Florida
Two Florida races will test the electoral strength of moderate Republicans in swing districts. Representative Carlos Curbelo has a strong image of a centrist Republican ready to denounce the president, but it is unclear whether it will be enough to hold the 26th congressional district of Florida, won by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton 16 points . . He runs against former Vice Dean of Florida International University Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The 27th District of Florida Congress is at stake because GOP representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has decided to retire. The district is strongly Hispanic but the former Secretary of Health and Social Services, Donna Shalala, Democrat, does not speak Spanish. Meanwhile, Republicans have landed a rookie with former TV reporter Maria Elvira Salazar. Clinton won the district by 20 percentage points in 2016.
3rd district of West Virginia
If this district becomes blue, it will probably be a very, very good night for the Democrats. Trump won the district by 73 percentage points, but the current GOP holder is retiring, making the race more competitive. Democratic state, Senator Richard Ojeda (a former Trump voter) could win a victory here by sheer personality. Retired army paratrooper who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, he gave his mobile phone number in one of his campaign videos and promised not to support the representative of California , Nancy Pelosi, as a speaker. State delegate Carol Miller, a bison farmer and corporate curator, introduces herself as a Trump-style Republican with the promise of "cutting the bull" in Washington.
Midwest Messages
8th district of Michigan
Trump raised this district by 7 percentage points. Representative Mike Bishop has represented the district, located on the outskirts of Detroit suburbs, one way or another for most of the past 20 years. But this year, it's considered a stunt. Elissa Slotkin, opponent of Bishop's Democratic, is a former defense official in the Obama administration.
Minnesota 1st and 8th districts
Minnesota's 1st and 8th congressional districts are both open Democrat seats that won Trump double-digit in 2016 – in other words, two GOP pickup opportunities in an otherwise difficult climate for Republicans.
The 8th district is likely to run for the GOP. But the 1st district is a real coup de theater. It is a heavily agricultural region hit hard by the Trump administration's tariffs. It will therefore be a good test of the President's trade policy enforcement in agricultural countries – and Trump's popularity with this segment of the electorate.
Kentucky 6th District
This district includes Lexington and Frankfurt and should not be competitive. Trump won by 15 percentage points in 2016. But the political party representative, Andy Barr, faces a daunting challenge from Democrat Amy McGrath, a former Navy fighter pilot who has challenged the Republican and Democratic institutions. McGrath drew the national audience with his viral TV commercials, including the one featuring 89 combat missions and noting that a congressman told him at the age of 13 that women should not be allowed to serve in combat.
3rd district of Kansas
In 2016, it was a district infested with votes, with a gain of just over 1 point for Clinton and a Republic representative, Republican Kevin Yoder. This time, Yoder was cut off from his party's electoral wing as the GOP views the race as a lost cause. Democrat Sharice Davids, a lawyer and mixed martial arts veteran, is expected to win this seat, which includes the suburbs of Kansas City. She will also make history as an openly gay Amerindian American.
1st and 3rd districts of Iowa
Iowa's 1st Convention District is a blue-collar seat currently represented by the Freedom Caucus Representative, Rod Blum. Democrat Abby Finkenauer, a 29-year-old representative, comes out against Blum, highlighting her roots in the working class. Blum is a businessman who has become a politician and could be negatively impacted by the president's tariffs. Trump won the 1 st and 3 rd congressional districts by almost 4 percentage points. In District 3, political party representative David Young faces a challenge from small business owner Cindy Axne. The 3rd District includes Des Moines and Council Bluffs and has an equal number of registered, Democratic and unaffiliated Republicans. This contest will therefore be open to independent voters.
Signals from the south
7th and 32nd districts of Texas
The GOP has long been a rich and well-educated neighborhood in Texas, but they both chose Clinton in 2016, with less than 2 percentage points each. The Republican Rep. John Culberson, who represents Houston, is implicated by Democratic Lawyer Lizzie Pannill Fletcher. GOP District, Pete Sessions, includes the suburbs of Dallas, where it faces Colin Allred, a civil rights lawyer and former NFL Titan player, Tennessee Titans. Sessions have not faced a competitive race for years, but the Republican pillar is now considered the most vulnerable GOP congressman in Texas.
Confirmation of the coast
Nevada's 3rd District
This is one of the few open Democrat seats to have been awarded to Trump in 2016, albeit just one percentage point. With the decision of incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen to run for the Senate, this is one of the few GOP points of view this year. Republican businessman Danny Tarkanian almost won the district in 2016. He enjoys the support of President to try to convince Democrat Susie Lee, a philanthropist.
The 25th, 39th, 45th, 48th and 49th districts of California
On the west coast, Democrats see a golden opportunity to overthrow several seats that have long been Republican strongholds. The 39th district is open after the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, Ed Royce, has decided to retire. His former assistant and former member of the Assembly, Young Kim, hopes to take his place. But it faces the competition of the winner of the lottery and the democrat Gil Cisneros. The 49th District of California is open after Representative Darrell Issa, the former chairman of the House's oversight committee, said he would not run again. Democrat Mike Levin, a lawyer, faces Republican Diane Harkey, chairman of the state's tax administration board and former mayor of the city. GOP representatives Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher and Steve Knight all face competitive challenges.
More: Here's what 27 mainstream breeds say about a possible Democratic blue wave
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