Dems are confident about House despite painful memories of 2016

Democrats' growing confidence as election day draws back to 2016, leaving some Liberals anxious that party leaders have learned nothing from their political failure – and are currently measuring the curtains until the election day. the President's office is secure.

Leader of the minority Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia's Alesandro PelosiThe push for immigration at Trump raises debate in the Senate. The GOP is already fighting for the fight in the House leadership. Your wallet is on the PLUS ballot (D-Calif.) Tuesday made its boldest prediction of the year, promising Democrats to seize the lower house in the legislative elections of November 6 – renouncing the previous belief that such a concrete prediction was premature.

"What I'm saying now, it's" We're going to win, "Pelosi said in" The Late Show with Stephen Colbert ".

The bullish message – reinforced by other party leaders – is reminiscent of the Democrats of two years ago, when they rushed to the polls with promises of great victories in all areas , largely thanks to their presidential candidate, the former Secretary of State Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonAlex Rodriguez registers a call for the Democrat in a tight race at the Florida House A drama around Stone in the CNN's Mueller Don Lemon probe reveals her political affiliation MORE. Pelosi predicted that Democrats would win at least 25 seats in the House in 2016, only to see Clinton fall staggeringly Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump calls Gillum "uneducated" to become governor of Florida. Mid-term issues for Silicon Valley Republicans are strained on pre-existing conditionswhile Republicans lost only six seats.

In the post-mortem assessment that followed, some Democrats attributed this poor performance, at least in part, to an overconfidence that overwhelming victories were guaranteed, thereby reducing voter turnout. potential democrats. Two years later, some voices warn that new promises of inevitable victory could turn against the ballot box.

"It's like 'My God'. That's what happened in 2016. Everyone set up the party for Hillary before the election. And I think some people have stayed at home, "Michael Moore, filmmaker and Liberal activist, said in Late Night with Seth Meyers on Thursday, citing Pelosi's recent forecast. "You have to stop this kind of nonsense prediction and you just have to do your job as a citizen. Everyone must leave the bench this time. "

At the same time, the factors that shaped this year's electoral landscape are very different from those of 2016 and the winds have shifted almost exclusively to the Democrats. In addition to historical trends that predict large mid-term gains for the party not in the White House, Trump's approval rating is very deep. Democratic candidates have a decisive advantage in terms of fundraising compared to their opponents of the GOP. polls suggest that Democratic voters are more energetic than Republicans; and dozens of GOP holders are retiring, creating new opportunities for the Democrats to recover where they would not otherwise exist.

"The reality is that political situations in both elections are radically different," said David Rohde, a political scientist at Duke University, in an email. "No sensible analyst thought that Democrats would likely take the House in 2016. The same people (me included) will be completely shocked if they do not take it this time."

"What matters is what is really happening, not what Pelosi (or whoever else) has predicted," he added.

Democratic strategists agree that there is, to some extent, a mismatch between the message of national leaders and the functioning of individual campaigns in the field. Doug Thornell, general manager of SKDKnickerbocker, a public affairs firm, praised the party leaders' promises of victory, which reflect the momentum of the Democratic Party's eleventh hour. "But," he added, "the campaigns should work as if they were 15 points behind."

"This type of mentality means that you do not take anything for granted and do not rest on your laurels. And I do not see it anywhere, "he said. "Right now, if you call most Democratic agents, they are not sitting comfortably because the ballot is good.

"We all lived until 2016," he added, "and no one wants to relive that again."

A second Democratic strategist recognized some "dangers" by making bold promises of victory just days before the election. But this, the strategist added quickly, is part of Pelosi's work as a party leader.

"Even though you and I know that it's always better to say," We're cautiously optimistic, "the base does not want to hear" cautiously optimistic. "Everyone wants to follow a winner," said the strategist. "She must be the only one to say," Absolutely. "

"She's misplaced, but she has to be the cheerleader," added the strategist.

A Washington Post / Schar School poll, released Thursday, gave Democrats a late reason to be optimistic. The survey found that, among likely voters from 69 districts on the battlefield, 50% supported the Democratic candidate, compared to 46% for the Republican – a radical change from 2016 when voters from the same districts had favored the Republicans by 15 points. Of these 69 seats, 63 are held by the GOP.

Yet many of the same blue-wave polls this year predicted a Clinton victory in 2016. Several other underlying ingredients of the current pitch have given Republicans hope that they could keep the President's hammer.

Trump, for example, is relentlessly bent on Republican strongholds, reinforcing the GOP's conservative base. Republican Super PACs are pouring millions of dollars into end-of-life races. The Congress District map is gerrymandered in a way that strongly favors Republicans. And the economy, which created 250,000 new jobs in October, saw unemployment at its lowest level since 1969.

In his article in The Washington Post, author Paul Thoreaux warned Democrats not to underestimate the populist power of Trump's message.

"A blue wave is planned for the mid-term exams. I'm not convinced, "he writes. "Trump has proven that most polls were wrong for a reason."

The combination of these factors has led many Democrats, despite heavy losses in 2016, to approach Tuesday's elections with the utmost caution.

"We take nothing for granted," said Rep. David CicillineDavid Nicola CicillineDems goes from optimism to confidence in the victory of candidates to the House Dem Millions of dollars in campaign money Bustos announces his candidacy to rank fourth in the Dem. SUI (R.I.), leader of the Democrats mail group. "In 2016, the American people said loud and clear that it was not satisfied with the direction taken by Washington. We heard them. "

Sarah Binder, a political scientist at George Washington University, said the economy in particular could throw a joker at the promising forecasts of Democrats.

"In good economies, the president's party can usually mitigate the losses [and] resist this kind of natural decline in the number of seats they hold, "she said. "It's a bit unusual to have such an unpopular president while the economy is doing so well."

Still, Binder said Trump's constant campaign – and the emotions he stirred up among critics of all stripes – could cover economic factors and spur Democrats.

"Even if the Democrats were to hold back the turnout – which I do not really think – President Trump reminded the Democrats several times a day to explain what bothers them about his presidency". ;said. "So the Democrats are not the only ones screaming in the wind; It is really Trump who deliberately puts every day on the agenda of pretty polarizing questions. "

Some agents have stated that last minute courier orders would prove largely inconsequential in any case.

"The arguments were advanced, the money was spent, the announcements were made, the polls were done. It's now up to the voters, "Thornell said. "It's the next four days that will be spent."