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At 50 days of the mid-term elections, the likelihood of Democrats overthrowing the House has never been higher. And for the first time in the cycle, the strategists of both sides are seriously considering the possibility that the Senate will change hands as well.
In interviews with a dozen House and Senate strategists from both parties who granted anonymity to speak frankly, the Democrats' confidence and Republican concerns on the battlefield on both sides of Congress are are significantly increased in recent weeks.
The best Republicans working on home races concede that the room is a difficult battle.
"The House is probably lost," a GOP strategist involved in a number of races in the House told TPM, putting his party's chances at risk.20% at best – and it's generous. "
"We are almost mathematically eliminated from the majority in the House, "said another Republican strategist.
And while Democrats admit that their path to majority in the Senate remains narrow, some Republicans now recognize that this could actually happen.
"I still think we have the Senate – but I'm not sure, "said a GOP strategist.
The erosion of Republican hopes in recent weeks is due to the fact that their plight has not improved in recent months and the time has come to radically change the way they do things. But things have gotten a little worse both at the macro level and in some races over the last few weeks, with President Trump dragging his party down and Democrats offending both health care and taxes.
Trump's polls have fallen into toxic territory in recent weeks as his approval rate has dropped in the 30% of recent polls – his worst since last spring. This has led to a double-digit democratic advance in the congressional poll, above the 7% threshold that most strategists believe is the course of action for Democrats.
Trump's fall came as a result of media coverage of the guilty plea of his former assistant, Michael Cohen, and the guilty verdict against former campaign director Trump, whose decision Friday to plead guilty and to cooperate with the FBI t help everyone.
This comes after two major inflection points against Trump occurred during the summer: his decision to separate migrant families at the US-Mexico border and his disastrous Vladimir Putin press conference at Helsinki.
"There were two big polling stations where there was a huge change against us: after Helsinki and after the separation of children at the borders. Trump did it to us, "said a House GOP strategist. "If Trump goes down, we lose a lot more people. "
Dems In Command For Home Control
Republicans concede that the House is probably lost – an opinion supported by a wave of recent public and private polls, as well as by the spending decisions of national parties and super-PACs.
There are almost a dozen seats in the House open to the GOP that Republicans basically admit with their spending decisions that they can not win, getting about half of the Democrats to the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House.
And some recent polls support the theory that suburban Republicans will be slaughtered on election day.
Representatives Mike Coffman (R-CO) and Erik Paulsen (R-MN) did not follow the recent public polls, which follow internal investigations. GOP strategists privately acknowledge that they will probably not be able to bounce back in their Democratic-minded districts, joining representatives Barbara Comstock (R-VA) and Rod Blum (R-IA) as Republicans in title. Congress. And they say that the fact that the two veterans struggling with the battle seem to be cooked is a very bad sign for the map as a whole.
"When you have the guys who are doing everything that's in trouble, it's really a bad sign," said a Republican strategist.
More than a dozen other Republican incumbents are already essentially tied to their Democratic opponents in public and private polls – a difficult situation for the incumbents of a bigger name than their competitors. And while Trump's position has seriously tarnished his party, the main Republican policies do not help either. Democrats broadcast more publicity on GOP tax cuts than Republicans, a sign that it is not the political winner that GOP leaders have been hoping for and that Democrats are publicizing failed Republican attempts to to repeal Obamacare.
The only thing Republicans have for them right now is money, and they have been trying to take advantage of it as soon as possible to keep their hopes of holding Congress alive. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main home of the GOP, was the first group to be broadcast in 21 districts, and thinks it helped stabilize incumbents like representatives Andy Barr (R-KY) and Claudia Tenney (R-NY). ). and Leonard Lance (R-NJ), giving them a chance to bounce back and win.
The group also launched brutal ads highlighting the personal problems of Democrats, a move that could result in the disqualification of new candidates. But while these attacks are likely to save seats, for every race, Republican strategists believe they have taken control of two others that continue to burst.
Some polls, district by district, give Republicans a little more hope of being able to cling to particular seats that worry them. But the overall picture looks bleak for the GOP.
The Senate is promising
Democrats are still facing a brutal Senate card that should, according to all rights, lead to significant GOP gains: 10 senators are vying for a new Republican in a lost state, and four Democrats come from rubies . They need almost everything for the chance to win the Senate. Right now, they think it could happen – and Republicans fear that they're right.
"I hope that when the smoke clears, we will still have a majority in the Senate," said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) last week.
Senators Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), Bob Casey (D-PA) and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) are all in contention for re-election in the Trump States. Meaning. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) remain on the radar of both parties (and on their advertising spending lists) because of the strongly Republican nature of their states, but in public and private polls.
The main battleground of the Senate comes down to seven states, all of which are margin-of-error contests that could go both ways. Democrats are hoping for seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee, while Republicans are seriously targeting North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana and Florida. If Democrats can sweep away their pickup opportunities and lose a single incumbent, they will be in the majority.
Six weeks ago, Republicans remained extremely confident that it would not happen. They were optimistic in beating Senators Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Bill Nelson (D-FL), and skeptics, they could lose Tennessee. But recent public and private polls indicate that Donnelly and Nelson were clinging to narrow runs, with former Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen (D) being tied or slightly ahead of Rep. Marsha Blackburn ( R-TN) in most public and private surveys. dog fights with Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) in a race that the Republicans hoped to carry out at this stage.
Republicans are confident they will beat Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), who is lagging behind in all GOP polls this year. But the Democrats even think it could still win, believing that it only surpassed a few points and it has strengthened a little in recent weeks.
And while Republicans believe that Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) could still survive his reelection fight, strategists on both sides think he's more likely than not to lose his run.
The biggest changes in the Senate races over the past six weeks have occurred in Arizona and Florida, with a change of perception in Indiana towards the Democrats.
In Arizona, the rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) got a good post-primary blow, and Republicans think her attacks against Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) for his left-wing activism before arriving at the center during his time in the House is bearing fruit. Sinema had led the entire campaign, but the race is essentially tied.
In Florida, the first victory of Andrew Gillum's governor, the mayor of Tallahassee (D), offers Democrats a candidate on the ticket that will launch progressives, African-Americans and students, unlike Senator Bill Nelson ( Nelson). even a small lead over Florida's Rick Scott (R), even though Scott outperformed him in the race. President Trump's recent claim that 3,000 Puerto Ricans did not die in Hurricane Maria certainly did not help, as Scott attempted to break through the large and growing population of Boricua.
A top Republican has predicted victories in Arizona, Tennessee and North Dakota, but said:This is probably where it stops. Maybe we take Missouri, Indiana or all the hard work of Rick Scott, but I do not know. "
That would leave the GOP at the head of the Senate by two seats. But the Democrats could very well win two or even three of those races at this stage.
While Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) remains favored over Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX), the Republicans have recently sounded the alarm about the competitiveness of his race. They privately concede that their public concerns might be more of a tactical move to boost Cruz's fundraising in case he faces a difficult stretch at home, but the two-party strategists think the race is unlikely to become seriously competitive.
Democrats also keep an eye on Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), whose ethical issues and an important opponent is a bit of a concern.
Democrats are still the oppressed of Senate control, and the high number of essentially tied seats means that their chances of losing ground can be as convincing as their capture. But in recent years, the tightest races tend to separate on polling day. This could mean that Republicans would eventually win a seat or two – but it could also give Democrats the narrowest majority in the Senate.
"We held the pieces together during Labor Day. If we could hold the pieces together for another two months, it could happen, "said a Democratic Senate strategist. "I still would not call ourselves our favorites, we have to hit inside here, but that's quite possible. "
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