Dems move from optimism to confidence



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Democrats have moved to feel confident they will win the House, with growing signs that the volatile political environment has shifted them back into the final days before the midterm elections.

A combination of late district polls, fundraising numbers, President TrumpDonald John TrumpMore Trump Gop: poll poll Top Dem on Senate Trump over Obama Pollution Poll'S falling approval rating and historical trends have all leaned in the Democrats' favor, leading to a growing sense of housebreaking that the House is theirs for taking next week.

"Up until today, I would've said, 'If the election was held today, we would win,'" House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiElection Countdown: Trump rattles GOP, with Ryan on citizenship | Republicans under pressure to denounce Steve King | Dem confidence grows | Pelosi says Dems will take House | Party hopes young voters deliver blue wave | Tester fights for survival Trump vows to pay down the hill 12:30 Report – Trump citizenship surprise rattles midterms | Pelosi predicts Dems will take House MORE (D-Calif.) Said on "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" on Tuesday night. "What now I'm saying is, 'We will win.'"

Pelosi's bold prediction was not made flippantly, according to a source familiar with her thinking. Just last week, Pelosi was still expressing some caution about their prospects of taking the majority.

"Pelosi is a numbers person. She comes to this conclusion very carefully, "said the source. "There was concern about a large infusion of cash from the Republicans, but we are keeping competitive."

Republican congressional candidate Katie Arrington (S.C.), whose general election race in a ruby ​​red coastal district has flown largely under the radar this cycle.

Meanwhile, a top Democratic-aligned PAC. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockElection Countdown: Trump rattles GOP, with Ryan on citizenship | Republicans under pressure to denounce Steve King | Dem confidence grows | Pelosi says Dems will take House | Party hopes young voters deliver blue wave | Test fights for survival Trump surprise rattles GOP in final stretch Election Countdown: One week from midterms, house battlefield expands MORE'S (R-Va.) Breed – a sign of the left' s growing confidence in the Northern Virginia suburbs.

A number of other places that would normally be considered as safer for the Republicans are also in play, including Rep. Steve KingSteven (Steve) Arnold KingSteve King calls his critics 'cannibals', he'll be reelected easily Hillicon Valley: Official warns midterm influence could trigger sanctions | UK, Canada call on Zuckerberg to testify | Google exec resigns after harassment allegations | Gab CEO defends platform | T-Mobile, Sprint Tailor Merger Pitch for Trump On The Money: US workers see highest wage growth since 2008 | Fed releases plan to loosen the rules for major US banks | GOP chair criticizes UK tech tax | US drops in World Bank's list of best places to do business MORE'S District in Iowa, where the incumbent has drawn criticism from the Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) over its controversial comments and association with far-right parties.

The shift in tone comes after the GOP had been feeling better about their own midterm prospects earlier this month.

The fierce nomination fight over Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughElection Countdown: Trump rattles GOP, with Ryan on citizenship | Republicans under pressure to denounce Steve King | Dem confidence grows | Pelosi says Dems will take House | Party hopes young voters deliver blue wave | Test fights for survival Justices weigh if international organizations can be sued Trump complained about Mueller investigation in final meeting with McGahn: report MORE For the Supreme Court – a process in headline grabbing accusations that the nominee had sexually assaulted a teenager when they were both in high school – fired up the conservative basis, lending Republicans a bump in the polls in early October.

Trump also pounced on the emergence of a Central American migrant caravan inching its way towards the US border to trumpet his "America-first" agenda to his most faithful supporters.

In the final stretch of the campaign, a wave of violence – including a deadly shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue and a bomb-scare involving prominent Democrats – has dominated the news cycle and puts it on the defensive as its critics blame the president's fiery rhetoric for contributing to the ugly political environment.

And Trump's GOP Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, Dividing the Party.

Trump on Wednesday inflamed those divisions with a remarkable tweet attacking Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanTrump's Attack on Ryan as Election Countdown: Trump rattles GOP, spars on Ryan on citizenship | Republicans under pressure to denounce Steve King | Dem confidence grows | Pelosi says Dems will take House | Party hopes young voters deliver blue wave | Test fighters for survival GOP Senate candidates dodge on Trump's plan to end birthright (R-Wis.), Who had dismissed the president's birthright citizenship plan a day earlier.

"Paul Ryan should be focusing on the Majority rather than giving his opinions on Birthright Citizenship, something he knows nothing about!" Trump tweeted.

Republicans remain optimistic that they can grow their majority in the Senate, where Democrats are defeated by Trump. That could prove to be consolation to the president, who might be able to pay off the House of Commons while claiming credit for the Senate.

There are a number of reasons for Democrats to feel even better about the heated battle for the House.

A USC Dornsife / Los Angeles Times survey released earlier this week Democrats Leading Republicans by whopping 17 points on a generic ballot.

Trump 's approval rating, which had jumped after the Kavanaugh hearings, has since plunged 4 points, down to 40 percent, according to a Oct. 28.

While the GOP has been trumpeting a strong economy, the stock market, in recent weeks, has dropped almost 10 percent below its 2018 peak, all but erasing the year's earnings.

And Republican leaders have warned their candidates about "green wave" of spending Democrats, who have brought in eye-popping fundraising hauls amid the strong anti-Trump fervor on the left. In the third quarter, 110 Democratic challengers outraised their Republican opponents.

To fight the deluge of blue spending, the House GOP's campaign has made it last-minute.

Arrington toppled Rep. Mark SanfordMarshall (Mark) Clement Sanford Election Countdown: Trump rattles GOP, spars with Ryan on citizenship | Republicans under pressure to denounce Steve King | Dem confidence grows | Pelosi says Dems will take House | Party hopes young voters deliver blue wave | Test fights for survival GOP lawmaker handing out pocket Constitutions to trick-or-treaters on Halloween Election Countdown: One week from midterms, house battlefield expands MORE (R-S.C.), An outspoken Trump critic, in a primary race this year. But Arrington, who has tightly embraced Trump, has failed to get away from his Democratic opponent, prompting the NRCC to place his first TV in the district, which is rated as "lean Republican" by the Cook Political Report.

Meanwhile, a PAC linked to train New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg placed on his first ad Oklahoma City on Wednesday, where Rep. Steve RussellSteven (Steve) Dane RussellCook shifts 8 House races towards Dems WATCH: GOP Rep says Bolton can be 'polarizing' WATCH: Fund government, then tackle DACA, GOP rep says MORE (R-Okla) is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Kendra Horn. While it's still a reach for Democrats, with Cook rating the race as "likely Republican," the ambitious spending underscores the expanding battleground on the left.

Republicans are quick to dismiss the Democrats' growing confidence, pointing to the economy and early balloting as they're poised to defy the odds and retain House control next year.

"We've defied history already. We've won 8 out of 9 special elections. We actually have an economy where we have 4 percent economic growth. We have unemployment at 3.7 percent. We have the highest consumer confidence we've ever had, "Rep. Steve StiversSteven (Steve) Ernst StiversSteve King calls his critics 'cannibals', he'll be reelected easily Pressure grows on House GOP to denounce Steve King AT & T will take care of Steve King MORE (Ohio), head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told Fox News Sunday. "So I think people will reward us for what we've done.

"I feel like momentum is on your side in this last week."

Even some top Democrats are warning that a slam-dunk victory is premature. They remembered only too much that they would have had the least of the coins in their house.

"I am cautiously optimistic, but we are not taking anything for granted," said Rep. David CicillineDavid Nicola CicillineDem leadership hopefuls dole out millions in campaign cash Bustos announces bid to become fourth-ranking Dem next year Democrat launches bid for assistant leader MORE (R.I.), co-chairman of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee (DPCC).

"The American people spoke loud and clear in 2016 that they were not happy with the direction Washington was headed. We heard them. "

Entering October, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (N.M.), the chairman of the Democrats' campaign arm, expressed confidence that the House would flip, citing the party's booming fundraising efforts and the quality of Democratic candidates, many of the political newcomers.

But he was also quick to acknowledge that the turbulent political environment would inevitably throw late-cycle curve balls at the Democrats – unforeseen events that Lujan put at the top of his anxiety list.

"People talk about an October surprise. There will be surprises, "Lujan said during a Bloomberg roundtable in Washington. "I just do not know what's coming."

Through it all, Democrats have ventured to discard the noise and keep their message focused on pollutants in the United States.

Rep. Hakeem JeffriesHakeem Sekou JeffriesDem leadership hopefuls dole out millions in campaign cash As Kanye goes to the White House, both sides credit Kushner for prison reform Bustos announces bid to become fourth-ranking Dem next year MORE (DN.Y.), another co-chairman of the DPCC, named one reason he's bullish the House will flip: voters, he predicted, want to oversight of the scandal-plagued administration – oversight the Democrats have long-held Republicans of neglecting .

"I'm confident that the American people have concluded that this is a better option because House Democrats will be able to check and balance on an out-of-control executive," Jeffries told CNN.

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