[ad_1]
Five hundred days after the 2016 elections, many American voters remain deeply skeptical, even hostile, to political polls.
National polls in 2016 were actually quite accurate: Hillary Clinton was to win the popular vote of about three points and she ended up winning by two.
But the electoral models describing Clinton as a sure thing left his supporters feeling betrayed when, thanks to the constituency, the presidency returned to Donald Trump. For today 's voters, mistrust of polls can take an almost spiritual turn.
Still, if Americans who think Trump is hurting the country can be wary of any investigation that seems like good news for them. too quick to believe numbers that seem good for Trump but which, after a closer look, exaggerate the strength of the president's political position
when Trump reached a personal best of 45% last week. by a 90% approval rate among Republicans, a chorus of anxious Trump detractors asked: "How can this He is?"
Easy come, easy poll: Monday, Gallup pushed Trump back to 41%, as Americans learned more about his policy of separating migrant families from the US border. In fact, Trump's approval rating during his first term has been "incredibly stable" in a range of about 36% to 43%, pointed out analyst Harry Enten and D & # 39, other analysts
. 50% would mean the death of an outgoing president, excluding his reelection. And 90% of party support is not unusual in recent presidential cycles.
"Do not listen to the polls," warned a 55-year-old Army veteran and a Clinton supporter from central Florida who tweets @politicalppatty and who does not did not want to give his name for fear of losing his benefits from the Veterans Administration.
"Even if they say that Trump is falling, that he's going to be dismissed – do not listen. Democrats do not take out the vote. We are not together. We do not have a game book like them [Republicans]. So do not listen to the polls. If we do not show up, we will lose. "
Some voters find it difficult to understand how Trump could maintain such Republican support, but if Trump is an unusual president, in terms of political style and conduct, some features of his presidency, such as his strong political support, are faithful to historical trends, said Lynn Vavreck, a professor of political science at the University of California. "I think the problem is that people want to think that Trump should be different, and that he should not have the same approval rating as a "typical" Republican president, "said Vavreck.
" But he is the president, he is Republican, so it's a bit like if the counter-question was, "Why would we want it to look different?" The answer to that is that it behaves differently. But this festive tag is still very important to people. "
In the positive news for the president's critics, the Republican party's robust support might not be what it was, as the party is showing signs of shrinking." Democrats gained a seven-point advantage on registered voters, according to the Gallup poll, versus two in November 2016.
And Republicans face high-level defections, most recently Steve Schmidt, who headed John McCain's presidential campaign in 2008 and worked at George W. Bush's White House, in his latest Washington Post column. , famed conservative commentator George Will urged his compatriots to vote democratically in mid-term elections.
"In the GOP of today, which is the president's toy, it is the mainstream . "Vot er against the congressional caucuses of his party is to assert the nation's honor by quarantining it. "
But if Trump's critics who remain curious wonder how to gauge what? they hope to be the opposition of the building, republican defections not be the place where to focus. Probably more important for the defeat of the Trump bloc in the next elections, analysts say, will be factors such as voter turnout among minority voters, that Trump lost in 2016 by a whopping 53 points.
Another important group are white American workers who voted for Barack Obama. A New York Times analysis on official electoral records in three states revealed that nearly one in four white voters who supported Obama opted for Trump in 2016.
Do these voters go to court? to stick to Trump? An Economist / YouGov poll released this month of people who voted in the last presidential election suggested that the 2016 electorate was a bit sour on Trump. The president's approval score in the poll was seven points under the water, 41-48, a significant drop from his 46-48 popular vote loss in Clinton.
Vavreck described a Trump paradox that makes it difficult to gauge the political winds swirling around him. As an unusual candidate in 2016, Trump issued an unusual election when it was actually quite usual, in terms of partisan electoral behavior.
"The 2016 elections looked in many ways like the typical presidential elections – the problem was We could not appreciate that while that was happening, because all you could see was how c & # 39; was different and unusual, "says Vavreck." But to say now: "Whatever seems unusual, we should discount that – – I do not think we want to do that. I do not think the lesson from 2016 is: "When you see something that really comes out of balance, forget it, because it's like you're in balance …
"No, it is absolutely false. If you see things that are outside the historical norm, I think you have to pause and say, "Wait, what does it mean for what we know?"
For some simple American voters. No matter what the numbers say: ignore the polls and vote.
[ad_2]
Source link
