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TThe official theme of this year's UN General Assembly is to "make the UN relevant to everyone," but anyone attending next week's sprawling summit in New York knows that a person is more relevant than others.
Donald Trump should dominate the debate.
He will chair a meeting on drug trafficking on Monday, will speak on Tuesday at the plenary assembly and will chair Wednesday a session of the Security Council on nuclear perils. Nobody doubts that he will use these appearances to show contempt for diplomatic qualities for the benefit of his supporters and to strike the drum of America First.
World leaders prepared for surprises when Trump made his debut at the UN last year, but he still managed to shock, using his speech to threaten to "totally destroy" North Korea. This time, his counterparts arrive in New York after a year of work to manage their relationship with him.
But that does not mean that they can predict what he will do or say.
"Last year, there was a great deal of uncertainty about what President Trump would be – and what he would do and how to talk to him," said Jon Alterman, a former senior department official. and today Vice President of the Center. for strategic and international studies.
"I think a lot of leaders stayed behind last year because they were afraid of getting caught between not wanting to offend President Trump, but did not want to do anything with him that would cause them problems with voters at home. them. I think people sort of figured out how to handle that. I think they figured out how to deal with the president.
All world capitals have now established that flattery and money should be at the heart of any Trump strategy. Polish President Andrzej Duda organized a masterclass at the White House this week, proposing to seriously name any new US base in Poland "Fort Trump" while offering to pay for it and buy US liquefied natural gas.
In reality, Poland does not have facilities to import bulk LNG and is willing to pay only basic infrastructure for one base, but such details have been left for another day. It's the mutually profitable theater of the top that counts.
The leaders of North Korea and South Korea have learned the same lesson. Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in have taken advantage of their meetings with Trump to reassure him that he is an indispensable peacemaker, paving the way for a situation in which Pyongyang is able to maintain a nuclear arsenal while lifting the threat of impending conflict.
Moon, who went so far as to say that Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize, will travel to New York for a bilateral meeting with the US president after a visit to Pyongyang. weapons infrastructure.
Nuclear experts questioned these concessions, pointing out that it was a former test site for liquid fuel rocket engines, while North Korea had opted for solid fuels and a supply of fuel. dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear complex. the United States. "Trump, however, has welcomed the developments as" formidable "and" exciting ".
For domestic reasons, Kim and Moon have strong reasons to project their meeting as a resounding success, paving the way for a second summit between Trump and Kim.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has a more difficult task than Moon's. He must use his meeting with Trump to congratulate the US President's diplomacy while seeking to rein in his tendency to accept and reward Kim for the mere appearance of disarmament.
Trump's top diplomats face a similar dilemma. They must marvel at its breakthrough while trying to maintain international cohesion around the sanctions against North Korea, in the hope of achieving real disarmament.
"It's a chance for us to see what we have accomplished in North Korea," said US envoy to the UN Nikki Haley. "It's a chance to get the commitment we want in peace, but it's also a chance to have the conversation that if we do not apply the sanctions, all of this can go away." .
Haley predicted that in his broadcast speech Tuesday morning, Trump would issue some of the same fighting notes as last year, with the same theme, the supremacy of American sovereignty in his decision-making. Alliances and foreign aid would be evaluated through the lens of loyalty.
"He will talk about foreign aid, how generous the United States is," said the envoy to the press. "But he will also establish that while the United States is generous, we will be generous to those who share our values, generous to those who want to work with us, not those who are trying to stop the United States. and say that they hate America and are counterproductive to us. "
This approach will clearly apply to US efforts to inflict economic damage on Iran, with US diplomats sent to cajole and threaten their allies to support Trump's decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Iran, called JCPOA.
It was difficult. The Wednesday session of the Security Council chaired by Trump was originally to be devoted to Iran, but when it became apparent that there was a risk of highlighting the US's isolation in the JCPOA, the issue extended to the the use by Russia of a nerve agent in the United Kingdom and the use by Syria of chemical weapons.
"[Trump] did not want to be limited, "said Haley. "I think we will extend it but Iran will certainly be part of all these conversations as we talk about all weapons of mass destruction."
Trump does not seem to have been fully informed about the change of subject. On Friday, he tweeted that the session would be on Iran.
Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, will also be in New York, and the number of other leaders seeking to meet him will be an indicator of their willingness to challenge Trump over Iran. Abe's plan to meet his Iranian counterpart is widely seen in Japan as a gesture of independence.
Given Trump's unstable record, no one is ruling out the possibility that he might surprise the UN and meet Rouhani himself – once again presenting himself as a peacemaker, as he did with North Korea , in full crisis.
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