Do Republicans lose the debate on health care?

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Survey (s) of the week

This week, President Trump tweeted that Republicans "totally protect" health insurance coverage for the millions of Americans who suffer from pre-existing health problems (while Democrats would not, he said) and encourage people to "vote Republican". If this sounds like a strange 180 degree turn for Trump and his administration, it's because that's it.

Earlier this year, the administration supported a lawsuit asking the courts to dismiss key provisions of the Affordable Care Act, alleging that the individual mandate and protections for pre-existing health conditions were unconstitutional. In addition, Republicans have long campaigned on the promise to repeal ACA and have tried to "repeal and replace it" for much of the summer of 2017.

"The Republicans have changed ground and are now trying to catch up," said Simon Haeder, a professor at the University of West Virginia. Haeder said the GOP may be trying to change its strategy to provide coverage for people with pre-existing medical conditions, a position that is now widely accepted. "Ten or so years ago, we had no protection for people with pre-existing illness," Haeder said. "And we have had those with ACA, and now they are so accepted by everyone that Republicans feel compelled to acknowledge their willingness to support people with preexisting conditions, despite what they tell us have said these last eight years. "

Unfortunately for Trump and the Republican Party, Democrats seem to win the battle of public opinion over health care: 53% of Americans said they trusted Democrats to do a better job in health care than the Republicans in a recent ABC News / Washington Post poll. Only 35% of respondents said they trust Republicans for Democrats. Similarly, a recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that Americans were more likely to trust Democrats than Republicans on specific health care issues, such as maintaining protection from health problems. pre-existing health and reduced health care costs. Even the independents have fallen behind the Democrats: 60% trusted the Democrats to protect the pre-existing conditions (against 19% who trusted the Republicans) in the Kaiser poll.

Americans have also come to feel more positive about ACA over the last year. Forty-nine percent of US adults rated ACA favorably in the latest Kaiser Family Foundation survey, while 42% rated it unfavorably. ACA's popularity even hit a record high in February of this year, with 54% of Americans endorsing it, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Two weeks before the mid-session, Democrats and Republicans fear health care as a critical campaign. We contacted experts to find out if they thought it was a wise decision for Republicans to try to change the speech about pre-existing medical conditions, but the experts interviewed said Republicans were too late on the issue to gain a lot of ground. They also did not know if it would hurt Republicans at the polls. After all, health care is not the primary concern of every voter.

Robert Blendon, professor of health policy and political analysis at Harvard, told FiveThirtyEight that the best political strategy for Republicans was to "try not to talk about health care." But Democrats have made health care a central issue of the campaign. Emotional announcements, and Blendon said that this finally forced the Republicans to respond. "If you're here and the ads are running and you're in a forum with a Democratic candidate accusing you, you have to say something. The old argument – "We'll just get rid of it and start over" – is totally meaningless. "

In the short term, the Republicans' strategy of supporting the protections of those already affected could help reassure some independent voters who were already considering voting for the GOP, but experts surveyed said it was unlikely 39, other voters are influenced. . And in the long run, the experts said that today's positions would prevent Republicans from repealing the ACA, which would put them in a difficult legislative position.

It is not known if Republicans will suffer electoral losses. Eric Patashnik, a professor of public policy at Brown University, said in an e-mail that "it is already clear that Republicans have made their party's government even more difficult if they manage to keep the control of both chambers and try again to dismantle Obamacare. "

Other survey nuggets

• Georgian Governors' most recent poll conducted by Opinion Savvy shows Democrat Stacy Abrams and Republican Brian Kemp are virtually tied. All polls conducted this month placed the two candidates within two percentage points of each other. The race remains one of the most competitive in the FiveThirtyEight governors' forecasts.
• A poll of Alaska Survey Research conducted in Alaska asked voters for whom they would vote in a hypothetical situation where Governor Bill Walker, an independent, had abandoned his candidacy for reelection and had approved his Democratic opponent , Mark Begich. Responses to this question showed that Begich was 5 points behind Republican Mike Dunleavy. The first day of the poll was in the field, this particular scenario has materialized. The three versions of the FiveThirtyEight Governors' Predictions call the race a "skinny Republican".
• A poll on the Mississippi Senate special election conducted by Marist College and NBC News revealed that no candidate was about to win 50% or more of the likely voters. Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith led the poll with 38 percent support from potential voters, followed by Democrat Mike Espy, who received 29 percent support. If no candidate wins at least 50% on November 6th, the race will be held three weeks later. The classic FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Republicans one in eight chance of winning this seat.
• According to a survey conducted by Quinnipiac in Florida, Democrat Andrew Gillum was the head of Republican Ron Desantis, between 52% and 46% of potential voters. The FiveThirtyEight forecast characterizes the race of governors as "probably democratic".
• A Montana survey conducted by Montana State University, Bozeman sent a questionnaire by mail to 10,215 registered voters; More than 2,000 responded and gave current Democratic MP Jon Tester a 3-point lead over his Republican opponent Matt Rosendale in the state Senate race. But a more recent telephone poll with likely voters led by Montana State University, Billings gave Test a 9-point lead.
• A poll conducted by Siena College and the New York Times in the 12th Congressional District of Illinois revealed that Republican President Mike Bost was leading Democrat Brendan Kelly by 9 percentage points. A survey conducted by the same pollster in early September revealed a much tighter race, with only one point ahead of Bost.
• In Minnesota 1, a SurveyUSA poll shows Democrat Dan Feehan ahead of Republican Jim Hagedorn by 2 percentage points. The classic FiveThirtyEight forecast identifies the race as a stunt but gives the Democrats a slight advantage.
• According to polls, outgoing Republican Tom MacArthur is gaining momentum in New Jersey. A live survey of Siena College / New York Times (still in progress to date) shows that MacArthur is essentially tied to Democratic challenger Andy Kim. The last time Siena College and the New York Times polled the district, in late September they found Kim a 10-point lead. Other recent polls also show a close race.
• According to a SurveyMonkey poll, 56 percent of Americans believe that Trump's reaction to Saudi Arabia after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi was not tough enough. But there was a partisan division: 78% of Democrats thought Trump should have been tougher, compared to 37% of Republicans.
• According to YouGov, 64% of Americans say that cow's milk is their favorite dairy product, followed by 12% who prefer almond milk. Identical percentages – 3% each – prefer soymilk and coconut milk.
• According to a recent YouGov survey, 76% of Americans said they prefer Thanksgiving to Halloween. Only 19% liked Halloween more and 5% were not sure.
• On Sunday, Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a president in the second round, with no candidate having a majority of votes in October. Several polls show that Jair Bolsonaro, right-wing populist candidate, with a lead of about 15 points over his opponent, Fernando Haddad.

Trump approval

President Trump's approval rate improved again this week. According to our investigator, 42.8% of respondents approve of his position as president, while 52.2% disapprove. This gives a net approval rate of -9.4 points – a slight improvement over a week ago, when its net approval rose to -9.6 points. But a month ago, Trump was significantly less popular than today: 53.2% of Americans disapproved of its results, compared to 41.4% of people who approved it, with a rate of net approval of -11.8 points.

Generic ballot

According to our generic observer of congressional ballots, Democrats are leading Republicans by between 50% and 42%. Support has hardly changed compared to a week ago, while Democrats accounted for 49.7% and Republicans 41.3%. A month ago, Democrats had about the same advantage, 49.4% to 41%.

Discover our House 2018, Senate and governor the forecasts and all the polls we gathered before the midterms.