Donald Trump could boost Michael Moore at the box office

Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 11/9" (Briarcliff Entertainment) opens Friday in more than 1,700 screens. The release comes in a year that saw three documentaries over $ 10 million: "You will not be my neighbor", "RBG" and "Three Identical Strangers". $ 30 million at ticket prices in 2018, with "Fahrenheit 9/11" at $ 178 million.

As always, Moore is the marketing campaign of his film; he ventured to recreate the appeal of "Bowling For Columbine" and "9/11" after a decade of seeing his movies come up against declining results. His greatest successes occurred in the early George W. Bush when he was placed in the resistance. (His last two documentaries took place while Obama was president.) In February 2016, his latest film, "Where To Invade Next," only raised $ 3.8 million.

This cycle works in both directions. Dinesh D'Sousa, the second member of the Moore team, directed between 2012 and 2016 three anti-Obama and Clinton documentaries: "Obama's America," "Hillary's America" and "America". . But his last release, "Death of a Nation", did not exceed $ 6 million despite opening 1,000 coins.

Will the current climate help "11/9"? The industry is not safe Pre-opening estimates range between $ 5 million and $ 8 million. With 2018 being a strong year for documentaries, Moore may do the same – perhaps reaching the "Won's You Be My Neighbor" level at $ 22.6 million.

But the three great successes of 2018 are far removed from the "11/9" controversy. The films about Fred Rogers and Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg focus more on positive and comforting numbers than on their political messages. "Three Identical Strangers" caught fire with its sensational story. "11/9", like all of Moore's films, is not designed to comfort, with commentary on Democratic and Republican leaders.

In the end, Moore will be measured against himself. When he made his film debut in 1989, documentaries rarely yielded more than a million dollars (adjusted, like all figures here). Miramax had a breakthrough with Errol Morris' "The Thin Blue Line" in 1988 ($ 2.7 million), which suggests commercial potential for non-fiction specialty films.

"Roger and Me" debuted with a twist at Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival. There was no distributor, but John Pierson was his sales agent (he also added "The Thin Blue Line"). He became the focus of usual specialty actors, but eventually moved on to Warner Bros. – a studio rarely involved in specialized films, not to mention documentaries without concerts. He released the limited film in December, then expanded in January to 265 theaters for an adjusted gain of $ 14.7 million.

Documentary has become a key element of the specialized theatrical world. Over the next three years, the market responded with five documentaries that yielded $ 2 million or more, with "Paris Is Burning" leading with $ 8.3 million. In 1994, "Hoop Dreams" (another Pierson title) earned $ 16.7 million.

Dog Eat Dog Movies

In 1997, while Moore was watching money and politics, "The Big One," at $ 1.4 million, he changed the conversation in 2002 with "Bowling for Columbine" ($ 34 million) and "Fahrenheit 9/11". box office has surpassed Oscar's Best Picture "Million Dollar Baby" contenders, "The Aviator" and "Sideways" as well as popular hits such as "Mean Girls", "Collatoral", "The Terminal" and "Ray".

It has not happened since. Moore followed with "Sicko" in 2007, about medical care in the United States ($ 24.5 million) and "Capitalism: A Love Story" in 2009 ($ 14.4 million).

This does not suggest any guarantee that its audience will support the wide dissemination of "Fahrenheit 11/9". This is the first film of Briarcliffe, a distribution company launched by Tom Ortenberg; He and Moore have previously collaborated on "Fahrenheit 9/11" when Ortenberg worked at Lions Gate Films. Word of mouth and continuous advertising will be necessary to maintain it.

Even Moore's "Moore" results are almost certainly too high. Although we do not know about marketing or other expenses, success for "11/9" can probably be achieved at a lower gross level. Moore needs a success after "Where to Invade Next," but with respect to the high standards for documentaries – well, he has no one else to blame than himself. .

S & # 39; register: Stay on top of the latest news from film and television! Sign up for our information letters by e-mail here.