Donald Trump is still not popular.

Donald Trump is unpopular. This fact is often lost in the analysis that treats its most engaged supporters as barometers of the country as a whole. But it's true: most Americans disapprove of President Trump and oppose him on most issues.

Experts treat Trump as whether he's winning the national conversation or at least holds a clear advantage. In Monday's Washington Post, James Hohmann warned that "liberal hostility" to the White House – including the public shame of administration officials like Stephen Miller and Sarah Huckabee Sanders – "overloads the sentiment President's grievance and nurtures the argument … In turn, "wickedness" could "alienate and depress middle-class independents who favor pluralism." Similarly, at Axios, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen see Trump as the winner in a growing outrage game. "The more the President Trump does, says and tweets scandalous things, the more his critics go to bananas and the better he does in the polls," they write.

Part of this is due to a recent spike in Trump's approval rating, when he hit 45 percent – a personal best – last week. But the improvement of Trump is overestimated. Even after this spike, the electoral averages show it well below its margin in the 2016 presidential election. FiveThirtyEight approved it with 42.3% and 51.6% disapproval. HuffPost Pollster has it with 42.8% approval at 51.8 disapproval, and RealClearPolitics has it with 43.7% approval at 51.1% disapproval. These are averages, so they do not capture recent trends, which show Trump on the decline. A new Gallup poll released on Monday shows Trump where he was before the brief spike: with 41% approval at 55% disapproval.

To put these numbers in context, Trump is less popular at this point in his term than any president since Gerald Ford. If his work approval continues its recent decline, then he will once again claim the mantle of historical unpopularity.

There is also little evidence to support the idea that the Liberals would alienate moderate and independent voters by expressing outrage at Trump and his administration. Generalized dislike for the president is a force behind the striking democratic gains of the last 18 months, surprising victories in state legislative races and shocking upheavals in special elections – like Doug Jones in Alabama and Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania – Waves wide victory in the Virginia election last year.

Trump is less popular at this stage of his term than any president since Gerald Ford.

The Virginia elections, in particular, saw controversial anti-Trump messages, such as an advertisement from the Latino Victory Fund, a left-wing political action committee, which depicted a white man – in a van carrying a sticker for the Republican candidate and a non-threatening Confederate child. The Conservatives have predicted a reaction that would condemn Democrats and elect Republican Ed Gillespie as Virginians backed away from "hateful" campaign materials. Instead, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam won a 9-point victory over Gillespie, and Democrats won every state office and overcame Republican gerrymanders to almost take control of the House of Commons. delegates.

Electoral politics is volatile enough that Liberal outrage can possibly impact the margins of a race. We have not seen it yet. The anger directed against Trump in national commentary and social media has not prevented the Democrats of Missouri, Oklahoma or Pennsylvania from overthrowing the legislative seats of the states, nor stemming the Erosion of the identity of the Republican Party. Most Republicans support the president, but fewer people call themselves Republicans, even though the conservative media are stepping up their defense of President Trump and working to generate anger among his consumers.

On these issues, Trump remains clearly at a disadvantage. Most Americans prefer Democrats over health care and taxes because majorities oppose the repeal of Obamacare and Republican tax law. While White House officials see immigration as a secondary problem for Trump, most Americans reject his approach to the border. Seventy-five percent say that immigration is a "good thing" and only 29 percent say that immigration to the United States should be diminished. Two-thirds of Americans opposed his policy of separating children.

Democrats still have a tough battle to win the House of Representatives – and an even steeper rise in the Senate – to say nothing of what it will take to defeat Donald Trump in the next presidential election. But it has less to do with its popularity, and more with its structural advantages. As we saw in 2016, strong support with white-collar workers gives Trump a powerful boost to the Electoral College, mitigating its poor performance with most other Americans. And the Republican Party managed to gerrymander the House so as to lose a national majority of several points, while retaining a majority of seats.

Yet the politics of the moment is simple: Donald Trump is unpopular, and anti-Trump anger must still prove dangerous for his political opponents. Perhaps there is a silent majority of Trump supporters, seething with perceived disrespect and eager to vote in November. If it exists, we have not seen it yet.