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President Donald Trump is conducting an aggressive campaign in the last four days leading up to the mid-term elections, bringing Republican candidates across the country. Despite his panic and confidence, Trump has some doubts about the GOP's ability to hold the House.
"It could happen," Trump said of Democrats taking control of the lower house in West Virginia on Friday night. "We are doing very well," he said before changing: "We are doing very well in the Senate."
He offered the crowd gathered in a cold storage shed at an airport in Huntington, West Virginia, to say what will happen if Democrats win: "Do not worry," said the president. "I'm just going to understand."
Later, at the same rally, Trump discussed the possibility of losing the House, which contrasted sharply with his previous boasts of a "red wave" in November. But this time, he added that it would not be his fault. "I do not say [Democrats] do not spit, maybe, because they had a lot of races, "he said. "I can not go anywhere."
He seems to be trying to do it. Trump appeared as an incredibly committed campaigner for Republican candidates during this cycle, diligently traveling the country and organizing several rallies a week until mid-term in an attempt to revitalize the Republican base and counter the opposition. left enthusiasm. On November 2, he rallied in both West Virginia and Indiana, and the next day he will make his appearance in Montana and Florida before a busy two-day campaign in anticipation of the day elections.
But history is not on the side of the president regarding the midterms.
According to Gallup, for all mid-term elections since 1946, the president's party has lost an average of 25 seats in the House. This average is even worse for presidents with an approval rate of less than 50%, as Trump notes: Gallup found that presidents whose level of approval was below this threshold had lost on average 37 seats in the House in mid-term elections. This year, Republicans will lose control if they lose 23 seats.
Republicans have more promising prospects in the Senate, where they have a slim majority of 51 seats and hope to win more. Trump's consecutive Friday rallies in West Virginia and Indianapolis, in Indiana, have shown nuances in the way he attacks Democratic leaders – in this case, Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Indiana, Joe Donnelly – personally tailoring his message to them. but then tie them to the leadership of their party.
Manchin is a moderate democrat in a deep red state. he was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court. "I like Joe," admitted Trump. "The problem is that I'm just not going to have a vote." Although Manchin was the only Democrat to have crossed Kavanaugh's alley, Trump again criticized him for not being stronger in his support and waiting to announce his position until the end. what Kavanaugh had already got enough votes otherwise. "I said Joe, it does not matter!" Recalls Trump. "Because if we needed the vote, it would not happen."
Trump's most powerful argument for westerners in West Virginia to elect Republican Patrick Morrisey, state attorney general, to replace Manchin is that in the end, Manchin still the "D". "A vote for Joe is a vote for Schumer," said Trump. "It's a vote for a majority leader who will not be good." And he linked Manchin to Hillary Clinton: "Joe was totally on his side," said Trump. "That kind of you says."
Trump had a similar strategy for hitting one of the most endangered members of the Senate, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, running against Republican candidate Mike Braun: associate Donnelly with the leadership of the Democratic Party, which inevitably draws the pitfalls of crowd of Trump. "It's no surprise that Joe Donnelly is organizing a rally this weekend with Barack H. Obama," said Trump, highlighting the initial letter, before criticizing his predecessor. (Obama will campaign for Donnelly on November 4th.)
"I need people to send a message to Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters and Radical Democrats," said Trump, "voting for Mike Braun."
Despite the House's expectations while he was working hard for the Senate, Trump warned Republican voters Friday of the stakes he was finding with a divided government after Nov. 6. "If Chuck Schumer -" Cryin & # 39; Chuck "- and Nancy Pelosi, and the legendary Maxine Waters take over, they will try to erase our gains and our progress," said Trump West Virginia. "It will be ridiculous, frankly."
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