This corresponds to a Gallup poll conducted in Iowa that has been going on for a year and that got Trump's approval ratings at 45% and disapproval at 51%.
A much more interesting question is how much his approval rate really needs to increase so that he has a more than minimal chance of winning in 2020.
Polls like those in Iowa suggest that Trump could win, even though his national popularity rating is below his disapproval rating. That is to say, Trump could be able to do exactly what he did in 2016: win the constituency, despite the popular vote.
Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 in four US states where Barack Obama has performed better than those in his country: Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If Clinton had won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Iowa or Wisconsin, she would have won the Electoral College.
Iowa and Wisconsin are the most likely to continue to cause the sorrow of Democrats in 2020. A defeat in these two states would lose the Democratic candidate in 2020, if it carried all the states won by Clinton, Michigan and the United States. Pennsylvania. .
Although Trump's net approval rating (approval rating – rating of disapproval) is upside down in Iowa, it is not as low as its rating net approval is national. By 2018, his net popularity rating in Gallup polls nationwide was -15 points. It's much lower than it was in Iowa (-6 points). Trump's national numbers currently are also much worse than the Des Moines Register survey. If its net approval rating increases across the country, it is likely to move into positive territory in Iowa well before embarking on positive territory nationwide.
Trump's numbers are not as good in Wisconsin, though they tell a similar story. The Gallup poll has an approval rate of 42% and a disapproval rate of 53%. This gives a net approval rating of -11 points. In other words, Trump's net approval rate in Wisconsin was 4 points higher than the country's in 2018.
A recent poll of Marquette University in Badger State defeats the same point. The survey revealed that Trump's approval rate for voters was 44%, with a disapproval rate of 52%, which corresponds to a net approval rate of -8 points. At the time this poll was in the field, the average poll of voters nationwide had received Trump's net approval rating at -13 points. Again, illustrating the fact that Trump is in a better position (if still weak) in Wisconsin than in the country
Mid-term results for Iowa and Wisconsin generally support the idea that they are right for the nation. Once we took into account the seats in the House in which there was no Democratic or Republican candidate, the Democrats won the vote in the National House of seven points. The Democrats have managed to get two seats in the House in Iowa and have won the House vote in the state by 4 points, but that is always worse than what they have done at the national level despite Republican Rep. Steve King who let himself be dragged by the scandal. The Democrats won the national home vote by 3 points in Wisconsin, after taking into account the uncontested races. The Democrats did not fail to take the seat of outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan.
Now Democrats have defeated Republican Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin and have easily retained their seat in the Senate in that state. Yet, they beat Walker only one point. The exit vote of the state had Trump's approval at 48%, well above the 45% recorded nationwide. That's all a reversal from the last mid-term democrat wave in 2006, when Wisconsin was more left-wing than the nation. At the time, President George W. Bush had obtained a lower approval rate in Wisconsin than he had obtained at the national level.
In Iowa, the Democrats were unable to win the big run at the state level in 2018. They lost the governor's election to the governor's appointment in place, Kim Reynolds, 3 points. (There was no poll at the exit of Iowa in 2018, although Trump's popularity in a pre-election survey of the Des Moines Register was higher than that of the country.)
Of course, this is not because Trump exceeds his national rankings in Iowa and Wisconsin that will be held in 2020. Democrat-nominated candidates could play a crucial role. In addition, Trump remains unpopular nationally so that he is even more hated than loved in Iowa and Wisconsin. Therefore, for this difference between the nation and Iowa and Wisconsin to be important, Trump will have to become more popular at the national level or Democrats will have to nominate an unpopular candidate.
Nevertheless, this data should be at least somewhat worrying for Democrats. In fact, if the Democratic candidate loses Iowa and Wisconsin, he will have to win in a state that has not voted to the left of the nation in recent cycles to win the Electoral College. It may not be an easy task.
