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Serious shots fired during the battle of Bitcoin (source Getty)
Interest in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency has slowed recently. Earlier this year, on social media, every mention of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency attracted a lot of attention. Special emphasis has been placed on futures, ETFs and all Wall Street projects to further integrate crypto. This interest has declined, at least in part because of stagnant prices. Bitcoin, for example, closed Friday in US markets at $ 6,214 (according to Bloomberg – I use coindesk for real-time pricing). We come to the point that most purchases of the last 12 months will have been made at prices higher than today. The first users are still doing well in their first purchases, but very few people who have bought Bitcoin in the last 12 months can tell. This definitely hinders Bitcoin's ability to attract new users – which remains essential for it to increase its price.
The other element that has an impact on the interest for Bitcoin is the fact that it has become less volatile. News attracts attention when volatility is high and people are looking for information. Bitcoin posted 10-day volatility as low as 17 days last week (according to Bloomberg). Although still high by most standards, it is well below 176 in January and well below 90% in July. Bitcoin is just not as volatile as in the past.
This lack of interest seems to have changed since @Nouriel seems to have launched Twitter and social media in a way that I have not seen for months, if not anymore.
Nouriel Roubini aggressively disparages Bitcoin with tweets like "Bitcoin must die!" He also supports his thoughts with useful and relevant information. This garnered the support of all crypto-bashers. It provides many reasons and links to a study from Princeton University, titled China's Imminent Threat, fueled the fire.
The most interesting part of the answer is how the community of bitcoins and crypto-currencies seem to cluster. Roubini's comments seem to galvanize the disparate parts of cryptography into a response resembling a convincing answer (not exactly coordinated, but still effective). Part of the "conversation" has been degraded to become the usual quagmire of unintelligible insults and reprimands, but there are nuggets of true wisdom or thought. It is encouraging to see how this develops.
Before anyone decrees the victory of Bitcoin Bashers, let's remember two things
- If I remember correctly, Dr. Doom has been deceived in many markets, often for long periods. He was one of the many predictors of the financial crisis. This is a claim to fame, but many others have seen it and, like anything else, timing was crucial to help investors. It is interesting to note that he chose this moment to face the war against Bitcoin. He may be right, but his record of bubble calls is not perfect.
- It is logical that bitcoin loopholes go off the beaten track. It is difficult to criticize something when it goes up every day or when most people who participate in it earn a lot of money. Market commentary tends to follow price action rather than direct it. So, as Bitcoin called it, it's much easier to be honest about your problems.
I remain bearish on bitcoins and crypto-currencies at these prices. I expect advertising to be more price-damaging in the coming weeks as I doubt that the current "debate" will encourage new users and discourage some weak people who decide to sell.
This could be a turning point in the crypto debate. I am attentive to the counter-arguments and to what some of the best minds in the cryptography sector have to say in the coming days. If the cryptographic community can deliver a powerful rebuke, we could set the stage for further growth. It's been over a year since I was crypto bullish and find an excuse to resume this position I would like, because I do not like to become permabull or permabear in any asset class and I slipped into territory Permabear on crypto (that's true since I did it, but I missed some of the positive fluctuations we experienced at that time).
In any case, I always come back to my simple Bitcoin Three Rules, which seem to stand the test of time in thinking about this market.
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Serious shots fired during the battle of Bitcoin (source Getty)
Interest in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency has slowed recently. Earlier this year, on social media, every mention of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency attracted a lot of attention. Special emphasis has been placed on futures, ETFs and all Wall Street projects to further integrate crypto. This interest has declined, at least in part because of stagnant prices. Bitcoin, for example, closed Friday in US markets at $ 6,214 (according to Bloomberg – I use coindesk for real-time pricing). We come to the point that most purchases of the last 12 months will have been made at prices higher than today. The first users are still doing well in their first purchases, but very few people who have bought Bitcoin in the last 12 months can tell. This definitely hinders Bitcoin's ability to attract new users – which remains essential for it to increase its price.
The other element that has an impact on the interest for Bitcoin is the fact that it has become less volatile. News attracts attention when volatility is high and people are looking for information. Bitcoin posted 10-day volatility as low as 17 days last week (according to Bloomberg). Although still high by most standards, it is well below 176 in January and well below 90% in July. Bitcoin is just not as volatile as in the past.
This lack of interest seems to have changed since @Nouriel seems to have launched Twitter and social media in a way that I have not seen for months, if not anymore.
Nouriel Roubini aggressively disparages Bitcoin with tweets like "Bitcoin must die!" He also supports his thoughts with useful and relevant information. This garnered the support of all crypto-bashers. It provides many reasons and links to a study from Princeton University, titled China's Imminent Threat, fueled the fire.
The most interesting part of the answer is how the community of bitcoins and crypto-currencies seem to cluster. Roubini's comments seem to galvanize the disparate parts of cryptography into a response resembling a convincing answer (not exactly coordinated, but still effective). Part of the "conversation" has been degraded to become the usual quagmire of unintelligible insults and reprimands, but there are nuggets of true wisdom or thought. It is encouraging to see how this develops.
Before anyone decrees the victory of Bitcoin Bashers, let's remember two things
- If I remember correctly, Dr. Doom has been deceived in many markets, often for long periods. He was one of the many predictors of the financial crisis. This is a claim to fame, but many others have seen it and, like anything else, timing was crucial to help investors. It is interesting to note that he chose this moment to face the war against Bitcoin. He may be right, but his record of bubble calls is not perfect.
- It is logical that bitcoin loopholes go off the beaten track. It is difficult to criticize something when it goes up every day or when most people who participate in it earn a lot of money. Market commentary tends to follow price action rather than direct it. So, as Bitcoin called it, it's much easier to be honest about your problems.
I remain bearish on bitcoins and crypto-currencies at these prices. I expect advertising to be more price-damaging in the coming weeks as I doubt that the current "debate" will encourage new users and discourage some weak people who decide to sell.
This could be a turning point in the crypto debate. I am attentive to the counter-arguments and to what some of the best minds in the cryptography sector have to say in the coming days. If the cryptographic community can deliver a powerful rebuke, we could set the stage for further growth. It's been over a year since I was crypto bullish and find an excuse to resume this position I would like, because I do not like to become permabull or permabear in any asset class and I slipped into territory Permabear on crypto is true since I did it, but I missed some of the positive fluctuations we experienced at that time).
In any case, I always come back to my simple Bitcoin Three Rules, which seem to stand the test of time in thinking about this market.
