Praedictix Briefing: Posted on Wednesday, September 5th^e2018

• Gordon touched down 10:15 p.m. last night, near the border between Alabama and Mississippi, as a tropical storm, but has quickly weakened since. From Wednesday morning, Gordon was a tropical depression with 35 mph winds.
• Heavy rains will continue to be Gordon's main threat over the next few days, from the Gulf Coast to Arkansas, with a rain risk of more than 6%. This could lead to flash floods.
• Meanwhile, across the upper Midwest, a slow-moving frontal frontier will continue to move south and will eventually interact with some moisture drifting north from Gordon. The potential for greater rainfall in this region exists, especially in northern Missouri Friday.
• We are also following Hurricane Florence right now in the middle of the Atlantic. This system is not a landing threat over the next five days, but the models present an uncertainty as to the overall trajectory of the system after that time. We will also observe two other waves that leave the African coast and could become tropical systems in the next five days.

Gordon Tropical Depression. Gordon touched down last night 10:15 p.m. just west of the border between Alabama and Mississippi, with sustained winds of 70 mph. Since then, this system has continued to move inland and has quickly weakened. From the 7 am Update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Gordon had sustained 35 mph winds and was moving northwest at 14 mph. All warnings of tropical storms and storm surges were canceled along the Gulf Coast. Map: AerisWeather.

Precipitation up to here. Some of the heaviest rains associated with Gordon fell in parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, with reports of more than 6 "and more. During the last 48 hours, 8.65 inches of rain has been reported at the Pensacola Airport and floods have been reported in the Mobile Zone.

Expected way. Gordon will continue to weaken as the system moves inland over the next two days, moving to the northwest with a decrease in speed. advancement. At the end of the week and the weekend, Gordon will head north and northeast across the middle section of the nation. Even if Gordon continues to weaken, the system will continue to produce heavy rains on its course over the next few days, as well as gusty winds. Map: AerisWeather and Praedictix.

Heavy threat of Gordon's rain. 2 to 8 "+ additional rain is possible along Gordon's course Friday in the evening from the Gulf Coast to Arkansas, with a little more moisture coming from Gordon and heading north in parts of Missouri, Iowa and Illinois to the beginning of the year. Saturday. Some isolated amounts of 12 inches are possible in areas that receive the heaviest rain bands. This rain may cause flash floods throughout the region.

Flash Flood Watches. Due to the continuing threat of heavy rains in association with Gordon, flash flood waters continue to be in effect in Arkansas from the northern Gulf Coast, including Mobile, Jackson and Little Rock.

Risk of excessive rain. Moderate risks of excessive precipitation that can lead to flash floods remain in place Friday in parts of the southern United States. These give us a good idea of ​​where the heavier rain (with hourly precipitation rates of 2 inches + possible) associated with Gordon will occur over the next few days. Looking at the deadlines:

• Today, the greatest threat exists from the Gulf Coast to the bottom of the Mississippi Valley.
• Thursday the largest area of ​​threat is moving through Arkansas.
• Friday the most endangered area covers parts of western Arkansas.

Heavy rain in the Midwest. Separated from Gordon, there was heavy rains that fell with a slow-moving frontal system in parts of the upper Midwest. Bands of 3-6 "rain have fallen from northern Kansas into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, with flooding cases in this region. Some regions have even seen record amounts of rain Tuesday, including Rochester, MN (3.32 "), Sioux City, IA (2.65") and Rhinelander, WI (2.81 ").

Midwest rain threat. The threat of heavy rains will continue in several parts of the Midwest over the next few days, with a slow-moving frontal system eventually spreading to parts of the central plains and the Ohio Valley before the end of the year. the week. At the end of the week, some moisture from Gordon will begin to spread in the area, contributing to the threat of heavy rains. Two areas of heavy rains are expected over the next few days – one in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, which will end throughout the day and a second in parts of Iowa, Missouri and New Jersey. Illinois for the end of the week.

Flash Flood Watches. Flash floods continue to this day, from Kansas to the Upper Michigan Peninsula, due to heavy rains this morning.

Moderate flood risk Friday. Moisture begins to flow northward towards the front Friday, the potential for heavy rains and rapid floods will increase in parts of northern Missouri and western Illinois. The weather forecast center has this area in a moderate risk of excessive rain that could lead to a flash flood because the models indicate the potential of 3-6 "of rain along the front.

Watch Florence. We are also watching another tropical system in the Atlantic – Hurricane Florence. From Wednesday In the morning, Florence had winds of 120 mph (becoming the first major Atlantic hurricane of 2018) and was moving west-northwest at 10 mph. The center of Florence was about 1,185 miles east-north-east of the north Leeward Islands or about 1,405 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Although this system poses no threat of landing over the next five days, there is uncertainty in the models as to the overall trajectory of the system after that time. This is something we will monitor over the next few days and provide updates as needed.

Two other systems we keep an eye. There are two other systems we are monitoring for training potential over the next five days in the East Atlantic:

• A low pressure zone located a few hundred kilometers south-south-west of the Cape Verde Islands is gradually better organized during the past day. He has a 50% chance of training in the next two days and 90% in the next five days.
• A wave that is preparing to leave the African coast in a few days has a 30% chance of forming in the next five days.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

Hurricane Lane was the second wettest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the United States. Here is a very good overview of the impact of Lane on Hawaii to Forbes: "Hurricane Lane left its mark in Hawaii without ever touching land. The hurricane is now distinguished by the distinction of producing the second highest number of rainfall ever measured in a tropical cyclone in the United States. A rain gauge on the island of Hawaii measured 52.02 inches of rain during the passage of the hurricane, thus consolidating the hurricane state in the registers. Hurricane Lane threatened Hawaii last weekend on an extremely unusual trail for tropical cyclones in this part of the Pacific Ocean. While most hurricanes only explode Hawaii to the north or south, Lane has approached the state from the south and stopped not far from the chain. 39; islands. Despite the hurricane that never landed, the proximity of the storm caused several days of intense rain on the islands.… "

Image credit: "3-day precipitation in Hawaii from Hurricane Lane. "NOAA / NWS Honolulu.

The economic impact of hurricanes. The Houston Chronicle has a timely op-ed; here is a clip: "…Perhaps the most unexpected result of the research has been the impact on health care spending even months after they arrived in Miami and Houston. During the landing week, health care providers' expenditures were 65% and 53% lower than those in Houston and Miami, respectively. Twelve and ten weeks after landing, this number still had not recovered, with health spending being 5% lower in Houston and 4% lower in Miami. This raises a critical question with important policy implications: is the slowing of health spending due to a decline in demand – consumers seeking less care and spending for more immediate needs – or?… "

Photo credit: "A neighborhood is inundated by the floods of tropical storm Harvey near Interstate 10 in Houston on Tuesday, August 29, 2017.Photo: Brett Coomer, Staff / Houston Chronicle.

This 84-year-old former hurricane fighter flew into the eye of 574 hurricanes. It is not finished yet. CNN.com has an interesting story: "James McFadden has participated in hundreds of hurricanes during his five-decade federal career, but he still remembers his first flight. It was Hurricane Inez, a 1966 storm that hit the Caribbean, Florida and Mexico. But primarily, the 84-year-old remembers how completely everything was disappointing. "It was not so impressive as a storm, so it was a bit like, well, it was not too bad," said McFadden. "I had heard all those stories about hurricane hunters and what a terrible job it was, and all that stuff, and I was just sort of overwhelmed by my first hurricane penetration... "

File image: NOAA.

How to prepare for extreme weather conditions. A post on care2.com has good reminders: "…A recent Esurance survey revealed that the majority of US residents have experienced at least one major weather catastrophe in the past five years. Taking action to plan for extreme weather is important if you own it. As you prepare yourself and your home, at worst, you can also do something good for the planet.

• Bring copies of important documents or store them in a home safe and fireproof safe.
• Plan enough food and water for yourself, your family members, and pets.
• Turn off electricity, water and gas services at home.
• Check your owner's insurance policy for weather damage… "