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We are only two weeks into the NFL season and it seems that the filmmakers have already completely abandoned the Buffalo Bills.
For their match of week 3 in Minnesota, the Bills proved to be a outsider of 16.5 points.
If this sounds like a monstrous point, it's because that's the case. This match will mark the second time since 2014 that an unnamed Patriots team has been selected to win a match of 16 points or more. In addition to New England, the Saints are the only other team to have been chosen to win a match with such a margin, and this happened last year when New Orleans was favored by 16.5 points in a game of the week against the Jets. Although the Saints won this match 31-19, they did not cover the point.
The good news for the Vikings is that if the story is an indication, they are basically a lock to win. In the last 10 seasons, 20 teams have been favored to win 16 points or more, and these teams have gone 20-0. However, covering the broadcast is a completely different story.
In these 20 games, the favorite was only 8-11-1 against the spread (ATS).
This game marks the third time since 1990 that the Vikings have been favored by 16 points or more. In the other two games (2009 vs Lions, 1998 vs Bears), the Vikings were 2-0 and 1-0-1 against the gap. At the end of the Bills, this is the biggest points gap they have seen since 2007, when they were a 16.5-point outsider for the unbeaten Patriots. The Bills ended up losing this match 38-7.
This game is about as close as possible to the worst case scenario for the Bills. On the one hand, their rookie quarterback (Josh Allen) will make his first career start. Not to mention, he will play behind an offensive line that has already returned 11 bags through two weeks. That number could double with the Bills against the Vikings' defense. Maybe the Bills should start Nathan Peterman just to make sure that Allen survives and does not have any crazy thoughts, like leave the team at half-time.
The Bills are the only double-digit outsiders of Week 3. However, there are plenty of interesting point spreads, including two undefeated teams that are both neglected this week.
Okay, let's go to Week 3.
NFL Week 3 Early chances
(All lines of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, all games on Sunday unless otherwise indicated)
Jets (1-1) at Browns (0-1-1), Thursday
Opening line: Browns, -3 points
In 2017, betting on the Browns basically meant throwing your money, and that's because Cleveland was an NFL-worst 4-12 against the spread. However, this is not the case this season. In two weeks, the Browns are 2-0 against the gap, which is tied for the best score in the NFL. To cover this gap, however, they will have to win, which they have not done since December 2016. The bets on the Browns in prime time are generally not a good idea, the team ranging from 0 to 3 at a time . and ATS since 2015. The Jets have won five straight games against the Browns, including two wins over Hue Jackson (2016 and 2017). If there is one thing weird in this game, it's the fact that the Browns are a favorite. This marks just the second time in 35 games that Cleveland has been favored. The last time this happened was in 2017 that the Browns lost 31-28 against the Colts as a point favorite.
Saints (1-1) in Falcons (1-1)
Opening line: Falcons, -3 points
NFC South sent three teams to the playoffs in 2017 and, shockingly, these three teams are tied for last place after two weeks, ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0). The Falcons have won three of the last four editions of this rivalry, including the last two games in Atlanta. This match will actually mark the first game on the Saints' Road of the season, which we only notice because the Saints always seem to have trouble in their first game. Since 2011, the Saints have gone from 1 to 6 at a time in a straight line and in ATS in their first game on the road. Road or not, betting on New Orleans was a risky move this year, with the Saints 0-2 ATS in two weeks.
49ers (1-1) at Chiefs (2-0)
Opening line: Heads, -5,5 points
If there is one person against whom you do not want to bet, it is probably Patrick Mahomes. In the first two weeks of the season, Mahomes made 10 touchdowns, the highest number of shifts in two weeks. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-0 against the gap, which is even more impressive if we consider that both games are on the road. This match of week 3 against the 49ers will be the home match of the Chiefs. The 49ers may not win this game, but it would not be a shock to see them cover. In Kyle Shanahan 's first season as a coach last year, the Niners went 5-2 against the gap as road losers. That said, the 49ers have not won in Kansas City since 1982 and they are only 3 to 12 in their last 15 games at 1 pm. AND.
Raiders (0-2) at Dolphins (2-0)
Opening line: Dolphins, -4,5 points
It 'sa pity that the Raiders do not play all their matches in Florida because it' s the only state in the Eastern time zone where they play well. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, the Raiders have played 16 games in the east of the country. In those games, they went from 2 to 11 outside Florida, but 3-0 inside Florida, including a 27-24 win against the Dolphins last season in a game where Oakland was favorite . However, you should probably think twice before betting against the Dolphins and that's because Ryan Tannehill has become a machine to cover. In his last 10 starts, Tannehill is 9-1, 8-2 against the gap, including 2-0 this year. Conversely, since his rookie year in 2014, Derek Carr has covered more games as a sloppy road (16-11) than any other quarterback in the NFL during this period.
Bills (0-2) at Vikings (1-0-1)
Opening line: Vikings, -16.5 points
If there is a team you probably do not want to bet on, it's the Bills. In two games, the Bills have a 0-2 record against the gap and they have not really managed to cover the gap. Bills quarterback Josh Allen will make his first start on the road and he will do so against a Vikings defense known to destroy the quarterbacks. Not to mention that the Vikings were one of the safest bets in the NFL under Mike Zimmer. Since he took over in 2014, the Vikings have gone from 13 to 3 against the AFC teams, which is the NFL's best score over this period. The Vikings also went from 25 to 10 home away from home in that same period, including the playoffs, which is also the NFL's best record during that period. Oh, and the Bills are averaging just 4.3 points per game in the last three games of September.
Colts (1-1) to Eagles (1-1)
Opening line: NO LINE
This is one of two games in the third week that does not have an opening line, as the odds do not know exactly who will play the quarterback for the Eagles. Although Nick Foles was in the center for the first two weeks, several reports suggested that Carson Wentz could finally be allowed to play this week. No matter who the quarterback is, the Eagles could be a smart bet here. Not only are they 9-1 in their last 10 home games, but they are also 6-3 against the AFC teams since Doug Pederson took office in the last 10 games at home. # 39; coach in 2016. Of course, the bets against Andrew Luck might not be the best. best idea Luck is 4-0 and 4-0 ATS in his last four games against the NFC. The impressive part is that the Colts were neglected in these four games, including Indy's second week's win over the Redskins.
Packers (1-0-1) at Redskins (1-1)
Opening line: Packers, -2,5 points
For the second week in a row, we could receive a daily dose of health updates from Aaron Rodgers because the Packers quarter apparently has an injury it could take up to two months to heal. If Rodgers trains with an injured knee, there is always a chance that he will suffer a setback, which is why it will be a fascinating point to watch for throughout the week. This game will actually serve as a road opener for the Packers and let's just say, there's a time to bet against the Packers, it's in their road-opening program. Since 2012, Green Bay has played only 2 to 4 games in a row.
Bengals (2-0) to the Panthers (1-1)
Opening line: Panthers, -3 points
After two weeks of the season, there are only seven teams 2-0 against the gap and the Bengals are part of it (the Bears could become the eighth team if they face the Seahawks on Monday). To get to 3-0, the Bengals will have to do something with which they have had problems recently: cover the gap with an NFC team. Since 2016, the Bengals have gone from 3 to 5 against the NFC and only at 2-5-1. On the other hand, the Panthers have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games against the AFC teams, a record that includes five wins in a row.
Titans (1-1) to the Jaguars (2-0)
Opening line: NO LINE
There is no line yet for this game and that's because the bettors have no idea if Marcus Mariota will play. After getting hurt in the elbow during the first week, it seemed like Mariota was going to play in the second week, but the Titans then decided to keep him out and let Blaine Gabbert go to his place . Whatever the line, the Titans may be worth a bet, as they have been one of the best NFL teams to cover division games. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Titans have gone 6-1 against the gap, which equates to the NFL's best division score over that period. The injury to Mariota is not the only thing to watch if you plan to bet on this game. Leonard Fournette's Jaguars could return to the field after missing the second week due to a hamstring injury .
Broncos (2-0) in the Ravens (1-1)
Opening line: Ravens, -5.5 points
At 2-0 in the season, the Broncos may seem like a safe bet, but that's just not the case this year: Denver is the only 2-0 team to not have covered the spread. The Broncos are 0-1-1 against the gap, a record might not improve this week, especially because the Broncos have done a horrible job of covering as a road loser over the past few weeks. years. Since 2016, the Broncos are 2-7 against the gap as an underdog on the road, which is tied with the Cardinals for the worst score in the NFL. The Broncos have actually been quite horrible on the road, whatever the situation. The team has played 1-9 games in a row and 2-8 against the gap in its last 10 road games. Of course, if you like Ravens, you may not want to bet on them to cover the spread. Since 2014, the Ravens have been favored by five or more points in total 18 times and they have only gone 6-12 against the gap (11-7 in straight).
Giants (0-2) in the Texans (0-2)
Opening line: Texans, -3,5 points
There are only six teams in the NFL who are 0-2 Away this year and there are two, so you should think twice before betting on this game. If you're looking for a reason to take the Texans, then you'll like the fact that Bill O. Brien is 6-2 at a time against the NFC teams at home and against the rich since his appointment as a coach. 2014. Texans have also never started a 0-3 season under O & Brien (the Texans have not started 0-3 since 2008). You know what, the safest bet in this game might be just the sub and it's because the sub hit in eight of the last nine games of the Giants.
Chargers (1-1) to Rams (2-0)
Opening line: Rams, -7 points
The battle for Los Angeles officially kicks off this week with the Rams welcoming the Chargers and if Sean McVay's career is an indication, it might be wise to take the Rams in this one. Since they were coaches in 2017, the McVay Rams have been favored by five or more points in total six times and, in those games, they've got a 6-0 record and a 5-in-5 record. -1 against the gap. McVay is also 5-0 against the AFC teams (4-1 against the gap). As far as shippers are concerned, this marks the first time since 2015 that L.A. has been an outsider with seven or more points. In 2015, the Chargers earned a 3-0 ATS record in three of those games, but a 0-3 record.
Bears (0-1) in the Cardinals (0-2)
Opening line: Bears, -4.5 points
This game marks the first time since 2012 that the Bears are a road favorite of four points or more. Coincidentally, the last time this happened, it was also against the Cardinals that the Bears won 28-13. As for the Cardinals, if there is a team that has not been about to cover the spread this year, it is Arizona. They lost 24-6 in the first week as a two-point favorite, then followed Week 2 with a 34-0 loss as 12.5 points. Does it hurt only six points in two weeks? It's bad: the Cardinals are the first team to get out of it since 2006.
Cowboys (1-1) at Seahawks (0-1)
Opening line: Seahawks, -3 points
If there is a lock in the NFL, you have to bet on the Seahawks to win their first game at home, and unfortunately for the Cowboys, this will be the Seattle home game. Since 2009, the Seahawks have won 9-0 at home and 7-2 against the gap. The craziest thing is probably not the most impressive part. What's impressive is that Pete Carroll has NEVER lost a home game in September since taking up his coaching duties in 2010. During Carroll's career, the Seahawks went 13-0 in September and 11-2 against the gap. Of course, Cowboys will not be intimidated. Since Dak Prescott's rookie year in 2016, the Cowboys have played 12-5 road games and 10-6-1 against the gap in those same games.
Patriots (1-1) to Lions (0-2)
Opening line: Patriots, -7 points
If there is a team you want to bet on after a loss, it's the New England Patriots. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Patriots have gone 5-0 following a loss. If you need another reason to take the Patriots, then simply consider the fact that they have a record of 8-2 (7-3 against the gap) in their last 10 appearances on Sunday night football. Bill Belichick will also be leading one of his former assistants, which does not seem to work well for the former assistant.
Steelers (0-1-1) at Buccaneers (2-0), Monday
Opening line: Steelers, -3 points
After leading the Buccaneers to two wins against the first two weeks, Tampa now needs Ryan Fitzpatrick to do the impossible: beat the Steelers in prime time. In their last 10 night games, the Steelers are 10-0 and 7-3 against the gap. On the other hand, Buccaneers have been known to fight under the lights. In their last 10 night games, the Bucs are only three to seven quarters in a row and 5-5 against the gap. Basically, if the Bucs win a victory, we should seriously think about changing Fitzmagic Fitzpatrick's nickname to Fitzmiracle.
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