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The number of anticipated votes shows a dramatic increase in voter engagement in this year's mid-term elections compared to 2014 totals, and preliminary voter turnout results in some states send back to Republicans warnings about the "blue wave" a few weeks before polling day.
More than 4.3 million Americans have already voted, and the results released this weekend by the Nevada state secretary indicate a strong Democratic performance across the state. In Washo County, where Reno is located and where Republicans have a long lead in voter registration (99,675 to 94,520), 3,409 Democrats voted in person, compared to 2,365 Republicans Saturday.
And Sunday, while many polling stations and businesses in urban areas are closed, 1,927 Democrats voted in Washoe County in person, against 1,483 Republicans. Given the votes sent by mail after two days, Democrats have a lead of about 6 percentage points over 600 votes, despite the advantage inherent in Republican registration.
"This never happens in Washoe," writes Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, who described Washoe as "rolling county" in Nevada. He noted that in 2014, the GOP had a double-digit advance in Washoe County after two days of advance voting. (The results do not indicate which candidates or political parties actually received the votes, but analysts say it is common for more supporters to vote early.)
Even though he said it was too early to draw definitive conclusions at this point, Ralston told Fox News that he could not remember any cases in which the trends early voting were not representative of the overall outcome of the electoral cycle.
"More people are usually voting the second week than the first, and the trends are not reversing," Ralston told Fox News, adding that only two days of data were available and that there was no trend. 39 had been established. "But it's not a usual year, we'll know more in two or three days."
For Republicans, disturbing signs have shown that even President Trump's powerhouse power, which propelled several candidates to victory at this season's important primary rounds as he battled storms across the country, could have a limited impact. The president held a major rally Saturday in Elko County, Nevada. Despite the invitation to some 8,000 people at the polls and the immediate announcement of a major foreign policy, only 435 voters voted that day, including 104 Democrats and 250 Republicans. .
In the Liberal County of Clark, where Democrats have a 13% voter advantage, 10,109 Republican voters appeared on Saturday against 14,538 Democratic voters. According to Ralston, the participation rate was "close to the level of the presidential year".
"In 2014, this advance after the first day was non-existent, indicating a red wave," Ralston wrote on his election analysis blog. "There was no firewall in the south in 2014, so the Republicans swept everything in. The voter turnout was also one-third of what it was this year. is not 2014 ".
But, good news for the Republicans, the results were noticeably closer Sunday, with 10,631 Democrats and 8,905 Republicans who went to the polls – which means the Democrats underperformed by about 50% their advantage for voter registration in Clark County.
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And Ralston said that even on Saturday, Clark County had good news for the GOP: "The fact is that the Republicans did a good job at Clark [on Saturday], coming at 4 percent above their registration numbers. "
Fox News ranks the Nevada Senate race between incumbent President Heller and Democrat Jacky Rosen, as well as the ruling contest between Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Steve Sisolak. The Democrats currently occupy three of the four seats in the House, and Fox News ranks two among the districts of lean democratism.
"A blue wave from one day – an aberration or a harbinger?"
Ralston concluded that Saturday was a "blue wave of one day" and a "big first day of real vote for Dems in Nevada's urban counties". He added that the results were "ominous for Repubs", although he noted that the numbers were equal once the ballots had been taken into account. There is a total of 14 days of postal voting in Nevada, which is generally about 60% of the total votes cast.
"The GOP did enough work with mail-in ballots in the run-up to the early vote to stay tight, so the real question is whether the Dems can continue like this or will deteriorate after a big first day." said Ralston.
At the same time, the first voters show an unusually high turnout in Georgia, where Democratic presidential candidate Stacey Abrams is running against Republican Brian Kemp.
"All signs point to stronger voter turnout," political scientist Michael McDonald told The Hill. "Where we can make comparisons, the numbers are up from 2014. Which is not a surprise, because 2014 was an exceptionally weak election."
McDonald told the newspaper that the participation rate could reach half of the population eligible to vote, a historic level unprecedented since 1966.
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Polls and indicators on the ground have suggested in recent weeks that Republicans are much more likely to retain their Senate majority than they are in the House. The card plays in favor of the GOP: There are nine seats in the Senate currently occupied by Democrats in states that voted for Trump in 2016, but only one Republican president presents himself in a state led by Hillary Clinton.
Texas representative, Beto O. Rourke, has also fallen behind GOP incumbent Senator Ted Cruz, despite a record $ 38 million in the last quarter, in a race that Fox News calls Republican probable. And the chances of Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who occupies North Dakota, have steadily decreased in the last two months in his race against Republican Kevin Kramer.
Heitkamp's popularity was defeated following his vote against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and the continuing scandal over his campaign's apparent inadvertent removal of people identified as having survived a sexual assault. .
Republicans are also more confident in winning in states like Arizona, which Fox News calls a salute, as Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema has criticized the past for criticizing Arizona and homemakers are tipping the tide. race. In addition, Sinema was criticized for apparently having stated in a radio interview in 2003 that she was indifferent to Americans who had joined the Taliban.
"It's personal for those of us who have served and fought against the Taliban," said to Christie's Republican presenter, Martha McSally, the host of Chris Wallace's "Fox" News Sunday ".
She added: "I was a squadron commander there, with my A-10 squadron." The Taliban were shot at, the Taliban were killing Americans. The Bagram air force base when I was commander was when an American gave his last breath fighting for our freedoms … and was killed by a Taliban. "
McSally, asked about her vote in favor of ObamaCare's repeal and replacement, told Wallace that she was nonetheless "passionate" about protecting Americans with preexisting conditions, thus highlighting the delicate balance that some Republicans must follow at mid-term. are on health care.
Resuming a majority in the House would allow Democrats to initiate investigations and even impeachment proceedings, but Senate oversight would be required for Democrats to block Trump's federal judicial candidates or to adopt them. an important law.
"The most recent poll suggests that there would be two elections, center-left voters in power in the House and center-right voters increasing the Senate majority of Republicans," he said. Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman at Fox News.
Mehlman pointed to other signs of a possible "blue wave" in the House. For example, Trump's approval rate is roughly consistent with that of other presidents in recent decades, when their party experienced significant losses in Congress. Presidents with a higher rate of approval tend to have their party retain more seats.
However, a new NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed that Trump's approval ratings had risen slightly, reaching their highest level so far: 47%, with 49% disapproval. This figure is slightly higher than the 45% approval of President Barack Obama during his first term in October 2010, just before the Democrats suffered heavy losses in the House and Senate.
The poll also indicated that 48% of registered voters would prefer Democrats to resume Congress, compared to only 41% of voters. This 7-point gap, however, was 12 points in favor of the Democrats in September.
And in the most competitive districts of the House, the latest poll has revealed to political parties that would have control of Congress.
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