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The party of the German Chancellor, the CDU, will garner only 26% of the vote in the next legislative elections in Hesse, according to a poll by pollster Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the TV channel ZDF.
This would represent a 12% drop for Merkel's party compared to the Chancellor's results in the last election of the region in 2013, when the party won 38.3% of the seats.
The Social Democrats (SPD), one of Merkel's nation-wide allies, are expected to fall to 20%, which is well below its 30.7% result in 2013, revealed 39; investigation.
While the SPD and the CDU are more and more popular, the Greens and the AFD are in full swing.
The Greens will be the big winner in the federal state, poll revealed, rising to second place with 22% support just after the CDU.
The AfD could win up to 12% of the vote, a result that would make the party be represented in all German parliaments for the first time.
A similar result would force Merkel's party to seek a three-party coalition, as had already happened in the national parliament after the September 2017 elections.
The CDU will probably form a coalition with the Greens and the liberal FDP, nicknamed "Jamaica" because the colors of these parties correspond to the Jamaican national flag.
The support of the FDP should gather 8% of the vote, according to the survey.
But the success of these negotiations is far from certain, Ms. Merkel saw negotiations for the formation of a Jamaican government at the national level earlier this year, before reaching an agreement with the brother party of the CDU, the CSU and the SDP.
Hesse, headquarters of the Frankfurt financial center in central Germany, will vote on October 28, 14 days after the Bavarian election that saw the CSU suffer from its worst electoral performance since 1950 at a vote in the United States. State, losing 16 seats, while the SDP lost 20 places.
Their losses paved the way for a major victory for the Greens and AfD, who won 20 and 22 seats respectively in the regional parliament.
Merkel would be extremely weakened by a second defeat at the polls, both at national level and within her own party.
The Chancellor will face members of her party at an annual gathering of the CDU in December.
If she does not come out of these events well, her opponents will be emboldened.
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen interviewed 1,035 voters in Hesse from Monday 15 October to Wednesday 17 October.
(Additional report by Monika Pallenberg)
