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Shayanne Gal / Business Information
Elon Musk, the founder of SpaceX, has long been a proselyte for the cause of interplanetary colonization.
If the Earth is shaken by a gigantic space rock, a cataclysmic solar storm paralyzing the human electronics, or if we purify ourselves from the planet in nuclear fire (accidentally or not), this could help to have a civilization of relief on a world like Mars.
To this end, SpaceX has mobilized thousands of employees to design and build a new generation spacecraft, the Big Falcon Rocket, capable of carrying 100 people and 150 tons of cargo to the red planet.
Researchers at the Institute of the Future of Mankind of Oxford University gave Musk even more reasons to preach his cosmic gospel: a draft of the first one. a new study suggests that there are about 2 out of 5 chances that we are alone in our galaxy. -3 chance that we are alone in the entire cosmos.
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"We do not know if we are the only civilization currently alive in the observable universe, but any chance we are is an extra boost to extend life beyond the Earth," Musk tweeted Monday, referring to the study.
He added: "That's why we have to preserve the light of consciousness by becoming a civilization of space and extending life to other planets."
A difference of 100 billion extraterrestrial estimates
The study, entitled "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox", was published on June 6 in Arxiv, a server for sharing scientific papers that have not yet been peer reviewed.
The research begins by questioning the Fermi paradox, a now-famous idea attributed to physicist Enrico Fermi (but perhaps incorrectly). The paradox asks: Why have not we heard of intelligent aliens there are hundreds of billions of stars in the Milky Way, plus hundreds of billions of galaxies in the visible universe?
There are profoundly troubling solutions to the Fermi paradox. One suggests that intelligent civilizations escape too quickly to be heard by other species (perhaps because of climate change, excessive use of resources or nuclear weapons ). A more frightening solution is that, like predators at the top of an interstellar food chain, intelligent civilizations eliminate extraterrestrial races before they can pose a threat.
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However, Anders Sandberg of Oxford, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord think that there may be no paradox.
The three researchers focused their work on the Drake equation, a formula written by astrophysicist Frank Drake in 1961. The equation attempts to break through the Fermi paradox by suggesting seven variables that would affect the odds of life, then multiply them together. The result, "N", is an approximate number of human-like races that could emit signals in the space inside the Milky Way.
But Oxford researchers argue that the deep uncertainty of some variables of Drake's equation – such as the fraction of planets on which life appears (f l) or the fraction of life that becomes intelligent (f I) – is rarely or correctly addressed.
"It is common to see carefully estimated astrophysical numbers multiplied by these ad hoc assumptions," they said. "It was noted that the final results seem to depend heavily on the pessimism or optimism of the authors."
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For example, about two-thirds of the studies that use the Drake equation suggest that there are about 100 extraterrestrial civilizations advanced by galaxy of the Milky Way. But other estimates are strangely different, ranging from 100 million civilizations per galaxy to just three civilizations per 10,000 galaxies – a difference of 100 billion.
"We find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy"
Oxford researchers have attempted to capture these uncertainties with their new paper. Their ultimate goal: to see if the Fermi paradox ("where are they?") Is a mathematically valid question to ask, based on what we know of the universe today.
The researchers did this by rounding up and analyzing studies on Drake's seven equation variables. Then, they reformulated each variable as a range of uncertainty based on these studies as a whole, as opposed to the best assumptions of an individual scientific group.
The work produced a bell-shaped distribution of results that Musk captures. And they were dark.
According to the study, the average probability (that is, towards the middle of the bell curve) that we are alone in the Milky Way is about 52%, with an average chance of 38% that we are alone in all the observable universe.
Even the most optimistic, better than average, values were depressing: the authors say that there is a 41% chance of being alone in the galaxy and a 32% chance that we are alone in the # Visible universe.
"This result dissolves the Fermi paradox and, in doing so, removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects on the universe," they said. "[W]We find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe. "
Why study fuels Musk's ambitions to colonize space
The authors of the study do not suggest that we stop looking for extraterrestrial life.
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"[T]its conclusion does not mean that we are alone (in our galaxy or observable universe), but that this is very plausible from the scientific point of view and should not surprise us, "they wrote. It's a statement on our state of knowledge rather than a new one. "
If we are alone, however, it increases the stakes of Musk's push to send humans to Mars and later establish a colony on the red planet as a "safeguard" of humanity. By not adjusting the space before a cataclysmic accident, a war or a natural calamity does not kill most of us on Earth, we risk not only the erasure of the human race but also the destruction of the only intelligent civilization of the known cosmos.
Regardless, Musk also thinks we should continue to look for them.
"It would be incredible to meet an extraterrestrial civilization," he said. tweeted Monday – "as long as it is not their invasion fleet!"
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