Emmy Predictions 2018: Who will win?

The iron Throne celebrates in 2017 Emmys, paving the way for a new class of drama winners. This year, the same is true for comedy categories, where another venerable veterinarian –Veep-Is out of contention for the first time since 2012. What show will happen in the void of this show? Will The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story sweep the categories of limited series as its O.J. Simpson– Focused predecessor did in 2016? And go The iron Throne she herself has a triumphant return to rewards – or will a certain group of crimson maids get in her way?

Vanity FairThe Price Expert Team tries to answer all these questions and many more below, thanks to our official Emmy predictions. Feel free to use it as a reminder when filling out your Emmys ballot – and do not forget to check in at the show on Monday, September 17th to see how we proceeded.

Dramatic series

The servant's tale
The iron Throne
That's us
The crown
Americans
Strange things
Westworld

From the beginning, this category seemed to be a close race between the oppressed maids and the royalty of Westeros. And since the Emmys Creative Arts have been distributed, the most likely outcome has become a little clearer. Yes, The iron Throne has won a bunch of technical awards, as is often the case. But the best drama of last year, The tale of the maid, have returned home with three awards – as much as in 2017 – including an upset of the actress in a dramatic category, where the maid Samira Wiley beat the queen of thorns herself, lady Diana Rigg. Last year, eternal winner thrones sitting the Emmys, giving The servant Can the drama of Hulu really repeat this feat this year? We could look at the main indicator which is the outstanding casting category to break the link – but this year this award was awarded to The crown. Even if, all other things being equal, the Academy of Television seems more likely to The servant's tale again, which was released much more recently than thrones did and also has the benefit of sending an anti-Trump message to Washington, DC.

Main actor, Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, That's us
Ed Harris Westworld
Matthew Rhys, Americans
Milo Ventimiglia, That's us
Jeffrey Wright, Westworld

Many experts rely on Matthew Rhys in his last year of eligibility to win a prize for his many brilliant work seasons on Americans. Mad Men"S Jon Hamm and Friday night lights" Kyle Chandler will be the first to tell you that the TV Academy likes to distribute Emmys to the deserving actors of the last year of their show. But the truth is said, other than Margo Martindale in the guest-actress category, Americans has never won a single Emmy Award – and Rhys, while excellent, still feels as far away as Television Academy's favorite Sterling K. Brown. Brown has not only won the last two years at the Emmys for his work on both The People v. O.J. Simpson and That's us, but also saw his frequent stage partner and fictitious biological father, Ron Cephas Jones, disturb the guest actor category last weekend. This means that voters have paid particular attention to his scenario. If anyone is a threat to Brown here, it could be his fiction adopted dad, Milo Ventimiglia, who certainly had a much richer role than Brown did on That's us this year. But nobody appreciates a recipient like the Academy of Television.

Main actress, Drama

Claire Foy, The crown
Tatiana Maslany, Black Orphan
Elisabeth Moss, The servant's tale
Sandra Oh, Kill the day before
Keri Russell, Americans
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

The voting system at the Emmy Awards is a little complicated, but for the most part, it operates on the principle of peer voting. This means that writers vote in the category of writing, consumers vote in the category of costumes, etc. But there are some exceptions to this rule – and regarding the categories of actors, the only people other than the actors allowed to vote are the casting directors. For this reason, we might want to revisit the surprise casting victory for Nina Gold and The crown at Creative Arts Emmys during the review of the outstanding lead actress in a theater category this year. Will Claire Foy, in his last year of eligibility to play Queen Elizabeth before she delivers the crown to Olivia Colman, bring home the price? This is possible. But really, Elisabeth Moss a convincing performance The servant's tale feels almost impossible to beat. Too long neglected for his work on Mad Men, Moss now feels like an unassailable favorite.

Support Actor, Drama

Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, The iron Throne
Peter Dinklage, The iron Throne
Joseph Fiennes, The servant's tale
David Harbor Strange things
Mandy Patinkin, Country
Matt Smith, The crown

The TV Academy loves reruns, but the winner of last year, John Lithgow for The crown, I'm not in the running this time. Could David Harbor win for his good job dad on Strange things? He was a favorite in Season 1 when he had a lot less emotional work to do – so it can be hard to imagine losing for his much tougher turn in Season 2. Again, he faces fierce competition from Westerosi's favorites Nikolaj Coster-Waldau and Peter Dinklage. Dinklage already has two victories to his credit, including one for a season when his character did not do much, but Coster-Waldau may be the one to watch, given the number of thronesThe most resonant moments rested on his shoulders this season. Despite all this logic, my guts go with Matt Smith for its perfectly small and sometimes friendly Prince Philip. Of course, there could be a lot of controversy over a winning prince where his queen did not succeed, especially after all this pay gap – but the fact is that Smith is fighting less than Foy in this category, and he really done imaginably as a co-star in Season 2.

Supporting actress, drama

Alexis Bledel, The servant's tale
Millie Bobby Brown, Strange things
Ann Dowd, The servant's tale
Lena Headey, The iron Throne
Vanessa Kirby, The crown
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The servant's tale

A fun fact about The servant's tale is that in his short two-year history at the Emmy Awards, he has not yet lost a category of actor in which he has been nominated. The main question seems not to be if he will win again here but which wretched residents of Gilead will bring back the gold. Alexis Bledel was promoted after winning the guest actress award last year and fighting against Television Academy's favorite. Ann Dowd and standout season Yvonne Strahovski. If voters just dab The servant As a political choice, Dowd feels like a lock to repeat his victory in this category last year. Given the magnitude of season 2, I wonder if all the voting members went to the end of Hulu's post-apocalyptic adaptation – but if they did, they would know that this season really belonged to Strahovski, who in sterling work on everything from Mandrel at Dexter for more than a decade now.

Comic series

Atlanta
Barry
Blackish
Calm your enthusiasm
GLOW
The wonderful Mrs Maisel
Silicon Valley
Kimmy Schmidt unbreakable

With the heavyweights of Emmys Veep and Modern family Outside the race, the comedy Emmys was thrown into unprecedented confusion, while several bridesmaids also had the chance to win the grand prize. Atlanta is already a favorite of the industry, as it is The wonderful Madame Maisel; Both years, both years, the Golden Globes were taken before the Emmys had a chance to notice them. But look for an industrial comedy to take this one – not the venerable Calm your enthusiasm, but the newcomer to HBO Barry who presented Bill Hader remarkable dramatic talents and shot in satire on the actors trying to do it in Hollywood.

Main actor, Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Ted Danson, The right place
Larry David, Calm your enthusiasm
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
William H. Macy, Shameless

A stacked and delicate category –William H. Macy permanent nomination Ted Danson is fantastic about The right place, and a price-voter favorite, but he's competing with his Calm your enthusiasm rival and friend, Larry David, who has not had the chance to be nominated in several years. They could split the votes between them, which would make room for Donald Glover– last year's winner and deserving – or Anthony Anderson, whose work on Blackish is consistent, but not necessarily remarkable. But if the price voters are split, between the two black comedy stars – which could not be more different, but, you know – that would go away Bill Hader turn like Barry in Barry as the most likely choice.

Main Actress, Comedy

Pamela Adlon, Better things
Rachel Brosnahan, The wonderful Mrs Maisel
Allison Janney, Mom
Issa Rae, Unsafe
Tracee Ellis Ross, Blackish
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

VeepThe most marked absence here, in a category that Julia Louis-Dreyfus (rightly) owned for years. Allison Janney is a serious contender – she won for that role before – but her rewards came in the support category, not in the lead. Pamela Adlon and Issa Rae are critical critics, but the Academy largely neglected both shows last season, suggesting that this year's nominations are a hasty effort to award credits where credits are due. And although Lily Tomlin is a favorite of the industry, Grace and Frankie is only an O.K. show, making room for another performer to take the prize. My money is on the charm Rachel Brosnahan, who not only is captivating in toothpaste Wonderful Mrs. Maisel, but was a pleasure in the next advertising tour. It's not fair that Brosnahan could face these half hours of comedy with eight episodes of an hour of dramaturgy, a period drama that uses a lot of coats and hats to put Brosnahan in the role. But the Emmys are not fair, especially when it comes to category confusion, and at least Brosnahan is funny in his role, as Midge Maisel scintillating and sharp-tongued.

Support Actor, Comedy

Louie Anderson, Baskets
Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live
Tituss Burgess, Kimmy Schmidt unbreakable
Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta
Tony Shalhoub, The wonderful Mrs Maisel
Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Henry Winkler, Barry

Which category How Kenan Thompson come here? How is Henry Winkler in the race? How are Louie Anderson and Alec Baldwin the defending champions in this category, in roles that could not be more different? It's a strange moment to support actors in comedy, as evidenced by this remarkable training. Baldwin will almost certainly win, even if his Donald Trump The impression is less interesting during the second year of the reign of our dear chief. But if he does not do it, it's because of decades of good will accumulated for the candidate Winkler, who never won for Fonzie but who showed up at every Arrested development episode where he stood with a perfect comic game face, ready to say or do literally anything. It helps that Winkler is really great in Barry as a committed performance coach of Hader; Based on the end of the TV season, it will also feature some really spectacular performances next season.

Support Actress, Comedy

Zazie Beetz, Atlanta
Alex Borstein, The wonderful Mrs Maisel
Aidy Bryant, Saturday Night Live
Betty Gilpin, GLOW
Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne
Megan Mullally, Will & Grace

The total number of nominees here …eight, in a category that normally consists of six people, just talk about this incredible moment for women in comedy. It's really nice to see Saturday Night LiveMembers of the distribution who are not Kate McKinnon to be recognized, mainly because McKinnon, two-time winner, will win almost again. Zazie Beetz and Alex Borstein do not have the buzz around them that their co – stars do, and Betty Gilpin-Who probably should win – is buried in a show with dozens of other performances demanding attention. My faith in the powers of Megan Mullally is infinite, so I would not be surprised if she found her fanbase of perennial rewards for the revival of Will & Grace. If not, watch for Roseanne bump. The show is crushed and burned thanks to its namesake but Laurie Metcalf is loved. What if she managed to combine the high emotional currents around her failed attempt at the best actress at the Academy Awards this winter and the meteoric rise and sudden collapse (then sudden recovery?) Of the Roseanne come back? A few votes for her in such a category could make all the difference, because that's how close this race will be. To avoid presidential tweets, we must unfortunately pick on her.

Limited series

L & # 39; aliéniste
The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Engineering: Picasso
Impious
Patrick Melrose

While the second iteration of Ryan Murphy real crime anthology did not have as much juice from The people against O.J. Simpson, it was another remarkable achievement – and perhaps more important for his chances of Emmy, there is no real competition here. L & # 39; aliéniste was pretty but dull; idem Engineering; Impious was awesome but poorly watched; idem Patrick Melrose. Unless a huge anger (maybe the TV Academy recently invited a group of cowboys?), American Crime Story should reign once more.

Main actor, limited series or film

Antonio Banderas, Engineering: Picasso
Darren Criss, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Jeff Daniels, The imminent tower
John legend, Jesus Christ Superstar in concert
Jesse Plemons, United States Callister (black mirror)

The assassination of Gianni Versace did not have the cultural impact of his American Crime Story predecessor about O.J. Simpson but Darren Criss the performance was easy to distinguish; Playing serial killer Andrew Cunanan as a combination of rejected puppy and good-natured sociopath, Criss was magnetic and terrifying in a way he never would have been on screen before. Given the poor reception of the show, Criss could eventually be usurped by some of its competitors, probably Benedict Cumberbatch (a previous winner for Sherlock) or maybe even __John Legend, __ who recently got the EGOT status for producing Jesus Christ Superstar in concert and could just add another Emmy for his titular performance. But if Emmy voters were actually watching Versace, even in part, it seems difficult to distract from what Criss has accomplished.

Main actress, limited edition or film

Jessica Biel, The fisherman
Laura Dern, The tale
Michelle Dockery, Impious
Edie Falco, Law & Order True Crime: Menendez Murders
Regina King, Seven seconds
Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Cult

Were theatrical distribution what it was 10 years ago, Laura Dern would currently be a serious candidate for an Oscar win for his performance in The tale, a heartbreaking and inventive examination of the director Jennifer Fox her own childhood and her efforts to ignore and finally confront her. The tale was premiered with moving critics at the Sundance Film Festival in January, and HBO, having recently won Dern Emmy for his work on Big Little Lies, quickly. Despite the overall strength in the category, especially for Regina King, a double winner of Emmy for American crime, the statue is easily lost. What she does not have.

Supporting actor, limited series or movie

Jeff Daniels, Impious
Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar in concert
John Leguizamo, Waco
Ricky Martin, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Edgar Ramirez, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Michael Stuhlbarg, The imminent tower
Finn Wittrock, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

If Emmy voters like Versace as much as they liked American Crime Story– and much more than Nielsen families –Edgar Ramírez can benefit from a wider scan. If that's not the case, Emys favorite Jeff Daniels, who, for fear of forgetting, managed to beat Jon Hamm, Bryan Cranston, Damian Lewis, Hugh Bonneville, and a pre-scandal Kevin Spacey for lead actor in a drama in 2013, for The press room of all things! In reality, Versace can even work for Daniels: voters who do not want to vote for Darren Criss against Daniels in the role of leading actor in a limited category, where he is nominated for his performance in the drama of September 11th. The imminent tower, maybe pour in to strengthen it here. A lot of consolation? Maybe – but it's more pleasant to see a deserved victory for Impious, who else might well leave the prices empty handed.

Supporting actress, limited series or movie

Sara Bareilles, Jesus Christ Superstar in concert
Penelope Cruz, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Judith Light, The assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Adina Porter, American Horror Story: Cult
Merritt Wever, Impious
Letitia Wright, Black museum (black mirror)

Maybe a wave of love spillover for Black Panther could propel a thriving movie star Letitia Wright to an Emmy victory; Hey, that happened in 2011, when Bridesmaids probably reinforced Melissa McCarthy to his only major actress victory (which was, technically, for Mike and Molly). It seems much more likely, however, that the TV Academy will by default choose the biggest movie star of this group: Penelope Cruz, who has less time on the screen Versace that one could expect from someone who plays literally Donatella Versace. Yet she manages to imbue her image with a publicity often caricatured with real depth and sympathy. Honestly, Judith Light the performance in the same series – as the long-time wife of Andrew Cunanan's third victim – is more powerful and more skillful; but Cruz has the juicier role, which will make all the difference at the Emmy party.

Variety series

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
Last week with John Oliver
The last late concert with James Corden
The late show with Stephen Colbert

The Emmys are one of the most averse rewards to change in the entertainment industry, especially with respect to variety categories – which tend to look like year after year, from nominees to winners. Late Show with David Letterman won an outstanding variety show for five consecutive years from 1998 to 2002; then The Daily Show with Jon Stewart intervened, enjoying a series of 10-year wins. Although The Colbert Report ahead of his network mate for two years, The daily show came back for a final win in the newly-renamed variety-talk-series category in 2015 – and since then Last week tonight seems to have been considered the true successor of Stewart. He won in 2016; he won in 2017; he has already won a Creative Arts Emmys pack, including the best writing for a series of varieties, so we can also declare this category all sewn.

Variety sketch series

At home with Amy Sedaris
Drunk Story
I love you, America with Sarah Silverman
Portlandia
Saturday Night Live
Tracey Ullman's Show

Speaking of the Emmy's resistance to change: it's going to be S.N.L. Duh. When the awards initially divided the talk shows and skit series into different categories, the skit was reborn thanks to innovative projects such as Inside Amy Schumer and Key & Peele. But no matter how deliciously crazy At home with Amy Sedaris perhaps, none of the nominees in this current crop have the weight to face the biggest sketch design of television – even a remarkably weak season outing. This reality probably will not interfere with Kate McKinnon or Alec Baldwin, and that will certainly not prevent S.N.L. to take home another prize for Lorne Michaels trophy room.

Reality contest series

Fantastic race
American ninja warrior
Runway project
Drag Race of RuPaul
Excellent chef
The voice

Fantastic race won this category an amazing 10 times, his series broken only once per Excellent chef and, in the last three consecutive years, The voice (who has won four times in total). The world of reality TV, at least in this category, is remarkably stable; Drag Race of RuPaul crashed the party last year but did not win, and there is nothing to suggest he could sashay at the head of the pack this time around. So in the face of what looks like an inevitable vote between The voice and Fantastic race, we will go with The voice. Voters seem to like a series here.