[ad_1]
ISTANBUL – He did not get everything he wanted.
For weeks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has attempted to attack his regional rival, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, through a clever leaking of information leaks linking him to a horrific crime: l & rsquo; Assassination of a dissident, Jamal Khashoggi. .
President Trump's statement Tuesday made it clear that the United States would remain loyal to its Saudi ally, leaving Erdogan's greatest ambition – to marginalize his rival and realign US policy in the Middle East – unfulfilled.
"This is not credible," Numan Kurtulmus, deputy chairman of Erdogan's political party, told reporters Tuesday, dismissing Trump's explanation that no one really knew who was responsible for the death of Mr. Khashoggi, "comic".
But that does not necessarily mean that Erdogan lost the geopolitical battle over the consequences of the murder.
The Turkish president may be better placed than when Khashoggi disappeared at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul seven weeks ago.
Mr. Erdogan, who has been widely criticized for Locking up more than 100,000 people since an attempted coup d'etat two years ago has allowed this affair to gain international stature. He managed to claim the high moral level left vacant by the US president and maintained pressure on Saudi Arabia.
"He stands with the vast majority of people in the Arab world," said Asli Aydintasbas, senior researcher at the European Council for External Relations. "People are outraged and think that Erdogan is on the safe side."
"Across the Arab world, Erdogan is very sensitive to what Erdogan represents," she added. "That's what interests him and that's what's important to him."
Beyond that, the Khashoggi affair allowed Erdogan to soften his authoritarian image in the West and potentially create momentum for re-establishing deep-seated relations with the United States.
In regularly describing the gruesome details of the assassination, Erdogan found a common cause with US lawmakers outraged by Saudi's shameless tactics. Earlier, some US politicians were more concerned with reprimanding NATO member Turkey for going back on democracy and acquiring a missile defense system with the Russians.
"The main benefit has been that Erdogan is gaining political capital in Washington, which will be useful," said Sinan Ulgen, former diplomat for Turkey and president of the Center for Studies in Economics and Economics. foreign policy in Istanbul.
Although he has failed to bring about a change of policy within the Trump administration, it is unlikely that Erdogan will drop the Khashoggi case. Turkey has called for a UN investigation into the killing and continues to demand answers, if only to cut off the Saudi prince's wings, which Erdogan sees as a threat.
At the height of the case, Turkish officials called on Washington to change the Middle East alliance, in the hope of moving the United States away from the mighty Arab monarchies. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as secular military authorities. d & # 39; Egypt.
Turkey has clashed with Saudi Arabia on several fronts, including the dispute between the Kingdom and Qatar. Erdogan's government also opposes US sanctions on Iran, directly contrasting it with the Saudi Crown Prince, often known by his initials, MBS, who described Turkey as part of the US-led regime. A "triangle of evil".
"It was a far-fetched idea that Trump would drop MBS," said Ulgen. "There will be some disappointment in Ankara, but also realism."
In fact, Turkey expected Trump's position from the beginning, said Aydintasbas.
"Erdogan is a smart politician and has been around for a long time," she said. "He can see where Trump is coming from," she added. "They seem to agree to disagree."
Despite persistent anti-American sentiment, often used by the Turkish government, there are signs that both parties want to restore relations.
"You can see in Ankara the desire to normalize relations with the United States," said Aydintasbas. "In addition, Trump clearly wants to settle its relations with Turkey. Erdogan does not want to ruin that.
The release last month of American evangelist pastor Andrew Brunson has facilitated Erdogan's relationship with the White House and Congress, allowing them to face further litigation that has brought their relationship back to a level without previous year.
Washington has already said it is investigating more of a Pennsylvania-based preacher, Fethullah Gulen, whom Turkey accuses of inciting the coup attempt in 2016.
The two countries also began joint patrols in Manbij, northern Syria, where Turkey and the United States fought. Washington supports Kurdish forces in the region, but Turkey sees them as a serious threat to security.
On Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed his acceptance of Trump's decision to side with Saudi Arabia, without renouncing the Turkish position that the one who ordered the murder be revealed.
Many countries did not want to quarrel with Saudi Arabia over the killing, he said. "We do not want it either, but the murder must be brought to light," he told the unofficial news agency Anadolu.
Cavusoglu was in Washington Wednesday for meetings scheduled to resolve many of the outstanding disputes between the two countries. These include an imminent fine imposed on Turkish bank Halkbank for violating US sanctions against Iran, as well as the detention of US citizens by Turkey and three Turkish consular employees accused of terrorism, accused of of foundation by the US authorities.
Then there is the important front in Syria.
Erdogan consistently opposes US support for Syrian Kurdish fighters, whom he sees as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which Turkey, the United States and Europe have all referred to. a terrorist organization.
Although these problems persist between countries, it is unlikely that Erdogan is wasting the political capital he acquired through the Khashoggi affair, political observers in Turkey said.
He can still threaten to broadcast the audio recordings of the murder, which, according to Turkish officials, indicate Saudi high-level involvement. But analysts say it is a "nuclear option" that it will have little chance to use, because that would essentially end its debt.
On Wednesday, in a speech to the presidential palace in Ankara, Erdogan did not mention either the Khashoggi affair or Trump's statement of support to the Saudi Crown Prince.
Instead, the Turkish president was already in the middle of the election campaign for the local elections in March, which shows that national political concerns are still in the foreground, since he has enumerated his last enemies of the country. State.
He criticized the European Court of Human Rights for a ruling calling for the release of a Kurdish political leader, Selahattin Demirtas.
He denounced a jailed philanthropist, Osman Kavala, who was swept away during the post-coup repression.
He thundered against wholesalers, which he accused of having increased the price of onions and potatoes.
Its nationalist position must be seen in the light of local politics, said Ulgen.
Turkey's economic difficulties, including a drastic drop in the lira and high inflation mean that Erdogan's party for justice and development risks losing some important municipalities in March.
"The members of the project to kneel Turkey and make our country surrender are always in solidarity," Erdogan said, referring to supporters of popular protests in Gezi Park and Taksim Square in 2013.
"Those who rent Gezi are they not the ones who destroyed all the windows, all burned? Have not they burned the buses belonging to the state? Did not they set fire to the craftsmen's shops? Should we tolerate them?
