Examining if the Bears' Mitchell Trubisky really did a wide-open TD against the Packers

Mitchell Trubisky did not play a great NFL quarterback in the first game of his second season NFL quarterback. That's one of the biggest takeaways from the Bears' devastating 24-23 loss to the Packers on Sunday night, when they blew a 20-point lead to a one-legged Aaron Rodgers. For the most part, the offense is just as much blame for not putting the packers away when they had to chance.

And that brings us to a picture that's been circulating on Twitter for much of Tuesday.

It's a photo that appears to show Trubisky missing a wide-open Trey Burton in the end zone on a third-and-goal late in the first quarter – not in the sense that Trubisky misfired, but in the sense that he failed to pull the trigger entirely. Instead of throwing the ball to Burton, Trubisky came back across the field to Taylor Gabriel, who made a catch and promptly lost five yards. The Bears kicked a field goal and extended their lead to 10-0, which ended up being important when the Bears lost by one point.

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Did Trubisky miss an easy touchdown? Or is the photo misleading?

The answers to those questions, as expected, are not as simple as yes or no. Many, like Hall of Fame contributor finalist and train Cowboys VP of personal player Gil Brandt, were quick to point out which screenshots can be misleading. The game moves faster than a picture or a slow motion replay.

In the photo and in the slow-motion replay, Burton is as wide open as wide open gets.

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But what does the play look like at full speed? It looks like this:

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I'll be honest: The first time I watched the play at full speed, I was convinced that Trubisky did not have a window. No shot, I thought. That packers defensive back was lurking and he made a beeline towards Burton as soon as Trubisky stopped looking at Tarik Cohen heading towards the flat, which packers shut off, and set his feet to deliver deliver a strike to Burton. And if that throw gets picked off, then it is necessary to have a say, then we're going to spend a lot of time doing it. ball into a window that was not there.

It is not easy being a quarterback in the NFL.

Former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky seemed to think that the throw could've been picked.

Kevin King said that his teammate would have intercepted that potential pass.

Trubisky's performance in the entirety of the game, at least partially. Is there an argument to be made that Trubisky should have spotted the open target sooner?

Probably.

He was not, as I said. Was a screen to Gabriel. But the screen action influenced the safety, giving Burton leverage off the snap. Window was there, Mitch was trying to make primary read / throw work, but GB was not fooled.

– dan durkin (@djdurkin) September 11, 2018

It's a difficult play to analyze, and that's why it's difficult to blame Trubisky for the final outcome of the play. The very fact that we're debating Trubisky should have thrown the ball that made the first impression made it seem. There's a real chance that the pass gets picked off if Trubisky tries to force the ball into Burton. And that's the one outcome Trubisky needed to avoid.

But can Trubisky be criticized for not seeing Burton earlier? I think so, especially because of failing to cycle through his reads was an issue throughout most of the game. He spent much of the second half dropping his eyes as soon as he first read disappeared. If Trubisky had realized that Cohen was covered earlier and spotted, he might have had a touchdown – again, maybe.

To get back to the original question, I think the answer is that Trubisky might have missed a touchdown, but even if he did, it was a mistake. school and 12 games a season ago in a Stone-Age offense. He's going to struggle at points of view, he's more comfortable in Matt Nagy's system and speaking to the NFL. The target he has not seen you as slow-motion replay made it seem. It was not an easy play. But as time goes on, one would expect Trubisky to make that read quicker.

The fact of the matter is, Trubisky actually makes a mistake when he plays Allen Robinson in the end zone. Trubisky had Robinson open, but he just sailed the throw. If Trubisky hits this pass, we're not spending our Tuesday arguing about how it's happening.

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Trubisky, so it is worth mentioning that Trubisky was not the reason Bears lost on Sunday night. Nagy deserves just as much blame for his play calling and decision making late in the game, when he called for a passing play on third-and-short and then a field goal kicker to the Bears up six, begging Rodgers to beat them by point. The defense should have done more to prevent Rodgers from tearing them apart in the second half. Jordan Howard should not have ran out of bounds. And so on. Trubisky is not blameless, but it is not only one worth blaming.

And here's the good news: Trubisky was not even at his best against the Packers and the Bears still should have won the game. If Trubisky progresses the way we expect him, this Bears team should be able to make the leap from competitive to good.

One blown lead should not define this version of the Bears. And one controversial play in the red zone should not define Trubisky's season.