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The Fantasy 32 analyzes the NFL from a fantastic angle, with at least a mention of each of the 32 teams in the league. Although efficiency is widely discussed, the column will strongly rely on usage data because volume is king (by far) in fantastic football. Use this information to make the best decisions about waiver, exchange, and alignment for the week ahead and beyond. Make sure to check every week of the season for a new version of Fantasy 32.
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Note that Monday Night Football's data may not be reflected in the graphs of the article until Tuesday afternoon.
L & # 39; infirmary
Falcons WRs Calvin Ridley (ankle) and Mohamed Sanu (hip) Both left Sunday's game with injuries. Justin Hardy was the greatest benefactor, drawing seven targets on 24 possible routes out of 42 passes in the match. If any of Ridley's or Sanu's members is away this week, Hardy is sure to ignore, but if both are absent, Hardy will definitely engage in the flexible discussion, especially with Janoris Jenkins, who may overshadow Julio Jones.
Jets WR Quincy Enunwa he's injured right ankle on Sunday and should run out of time. Enunwa had handled a heavy target part, but he was starting to dive a bit with Jermaine Kearse in good health and taking over as first receiver of the team. Kearse led the Jets' attack Sunday with nine catches and 94 yards on 10 targets (four more than any other Jet). Kearse, the number 26 fantasy game in 2017, had only accumulated 71 yards in seven assists in his first four games, but his expanded role – combined with the absence of Enunwa – instead in the flexible discussion in leagues to 12 teams. Robby Anderson (five targets Sunday) and Terrelle Pryor Sr. (six) are too risky to start.
Raiders WR Amari Cooper fell with a concussion after only nine clicks and only a few hours after commercial rumors began to circulate. In the absence of Cooper, Jordy Nelson (36 of 37 possible routes) and Martavis Bryant (29) worked the perimeter with Seth Roberts (31) in the slot. Oakland is about to give up its efforts, but if Cooper runs out of time or is traded, Nelson's action will rise enough to place him in the WR3 debate most weeks. Bryant's playing time would increase considerably and his ground capacity would be sufficient to lead him to a flexible discussion. Roberts is only worth in the deep PPR leagues.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp & # 39; s Knee injury does not seem to be serious since he came back (albeit briefly) to Sunday's match. However, should he run out of time, Josh Reynolds must be on your radar in an offense that ranks third in touchdown (3.5) and in first position in three sets of wider receivers in assists (98%). Reynolds was restricted to two targets on Sunday, but was on the field for 20 of the team's 33 assists (Kupp traveled 13 routes and was targeted once). Reynolds, a fourth-round pick in 2017, showed lightning while a rookie and Kupp's absence would make him fall in the limelight. Gerald Everett – who dubbed Tyler Higbee on the passing routes on Sunday – would join the TE2 mix.
Jaguars TE Niles Paul He's injured his leg Sunday just a week after Jacksonville lost Austin Seferian-Jenkins for the season. Paul fell to his fourth engagement, which led James O 'Shaughnessy to travel 24 of the possible 29 routes. Unless the Jaguars make an impact acquisition, this is a situation to ignore, except in the deepest of the two tightest leagues.
Opportunity alert
Throughout this article, I will refer to "OFP" and "OTD". OFP represents fancy points adjusted according to opportunities Imagine a league in which players are created equal. "OFP" is a statistic that weighs each pass / report / target and converts the data into a single number that indicates the possibility for a player to score fantastic points, or his total of "expected" fantasy points. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that an average player in the league who saw the same workload in the same area of the field would have scored 14.5 fantasy points. "OTD" works in the same way, except that instead of fancy points, it is affected.
That said, here is the scoreboard of PFP week 6:
OFP ranking of week 6
Player | Actual Pts | OFP | FOR P |
---|---|---|---|
1. James Conner, RB, PIT | 29 | 30 | -1 |
2. Todd Gurley II, RB, LAR | 37 | 29 | 8 |
3. David Johnson, RB, ARZ | 13 | 27 | -14 |
4. Jameis Winston, QB, TB | 31 | 27 | 4 |
5. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG | 38 | 26 | 11 |
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, KC | 39 | 24 | 15 |
7. Andrew Luck, QB, IND | 23 | 24 | -1 |
8. Alshon Jeffery, WR, PHI | 27 | 23 | 4 |
9. Tom Brady, QB, NE | 22 | 23 | -1 |
10. Adam Thielen, WR, MIN | 29 | 23 | 7 |
11. Cam Newton, QB, CAR | 23 | 22 | 1 |
12. Baker Mayfield, QB, CLV | 12 | 22 | -ten |
13. Eli Manning, QB, NYG | 9 | 21 | -12 |
14. Keenum, QB, DEN case | 19 | 21 | -2 |
15. Julio Jones, WR, ATL | 24 | 21 | 3 |
* Full position rankings will be published on ESPN + this week.
Vikings WR from Adam Thielen The record pace reached early in the season is probably unsustainable, but OFP tells us that it can afford a decline in efficiency while still managing the number of elites. Thielen's FORP throughout the season is 31, which means that his 31 fancy points are higher than the expected total. Still, its 123 OFP is the second highest, behind only DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver. Thielen is a legitimate receiver of the top 5 broad fantasies and you should not feel the need to try to trade him for his cap.
Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston has entered its first start in 2018 as a solid QB1 game and that's how you should see it move forward. Admittedly, it was a light match against Atlanta's defense, but Winston delivered … and then some. He completed 30 of 41 passes for 395 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 31 yards with his legs. Remember, Winston scored a fantastic week in the top 10 in 46% of his debut last season, earning him ninth. Surrounded by a formidable group of experienced players, Winston should be in training against Cleveland on Sunday and in most weeks.
Falcons WR Julio Jones He has not scored yet this season, but his 116 points of fantasy are actually higher than his 113 OFP's. Jones does not work much near the goal line (a goal-zone target in his last five games), but he still sees so much volume that he's the # 5 recipient of Fantasy.
QB Corbels Joe Flacco He is 20th at the quarterback with 100 points of fantasy, but his 111 OFP ranks fifth at the position and suggests that better days might be ahead. Flacco has not recorded any output in the top 10 fantastic outings since Week 1, but the Ravens' offense averages 75.8 games per game (most) and 2.8 touchdowns. per party (10th). An abnormal number of these scores were in the category of precipitated results (47%, making it the fifth best result), so we should expect more than affected by Flacco. Flacco is an outstanding home streaming option against the Saints this week and is a solid QB2 for the future.
FOR P
FORP is the difference between the total fantasy points of a player and his OFP (or the expected total of fantasy points).
First, here are the players who have largely missed their OFP and who are therefore ready to witness an increase in fantasy production, assuming they see a similar workload:
Better days to come?
Player | Actual Pts | OFP | FOR P |
---|---|---|---|
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, TVH | 116 | 148 | -32 |
2. Ryan Griffin, TE, HST | 24 | 54 | -30 |
3. Antonio Callaway, WR, CLV | 42 | 70 | -28 |
4. Josh Allen, QB, BUF | 63 | 90 | -27 |
5. Jarvis Landry, WR, CLV | 78 | 105 | -27 |
6. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, BUF | 31 | 52 | -21 |
7. Jeff Heuerman, TE, DEN | 27 | 47 | -20 |
8. Jordan Howard, RB, CHI | 49 | 68 | -19 |
9. Derek Carr, QB, Oak | 85 | 103 | -18 |
10. Donte Moncrief, WR, JAX | 53 | 71 | -18 |
Browns WR Jarvis Landry is targeting a target share of 29.2%, a career high, which is impressive if it is awarded 27.5% each of the previous three seasons. He has an average of 12.6 receiving yards, his best career result, but with a catch rate of 47% and a touchdown, he is 27th in the wide receiver in fantasy points. Landry ranks eighth at the position in OFP, which tells us that better days are likely to come. The ineffectiveness of teammate Antonio Callaway seems to have vowed to demote him, but as long as he is in his current situation, a big coin or three is inevitable.
TE Texans Ryan Griffin has sometimes flirted with fantasy during his career, which makes his brutal effectiveness in 2018 a little surprising. Griffin was targeted 25 times, but captured only 10 catches for 140 yards and no points to score. He is 37th in the position in fantasy points, but 10th (seriously) in OFP. The difference between his touchdown (0) and his 3.3 OTD is the most important in the league. The Houston attack has been mediocre in tough defenses over the past two weeks, but an upcoming list including Jacksonville, Miami and Denver means that it may take a little step back before a major rebound. However, FORP suggests that Griffin and his quarterback are heading for better days. Griffin and Broncos TE Jeff Heuerman, who manages a target share of 15% over the last three weeks, is a TE2 option.
Jaguars WR Donte Moncrief 26th at the wide receiver of OFP, but 58th in fantasy points. The 2.5 OTD of Moncrief ranks 18th and four end zone targets. It is too risky to queue right now, but the role of Moncrief should allow more production, especially in the Jaguar offensive.
And these players have exceeded their OFP by the widest margin and are therefore candidates for a decline in fantasy production:
The regression to come?
Player | Actual Pts | OFP | FOR P |
---|---|---|---|
1. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL | 151 | 106 | 45 |
2. Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC | 163 | 120 | 43 |
3. Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA | 91 | 50 | 41 |
4. Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL | 94 | 54 | 40 |
5. Albert Wilson, WR, MIA | 90 | 51 | 39 |
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, KC | 136 | 99 | 37 |
7. DeSean Jackson, WR, TB | 90 | 53 | 37 |
8. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR | 106 | 73 | 34 |
9. Philip Rivers, QB, LAC | 126 | 95 | 31 |
10. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG | 157 | 126 | 31 |
Will Falcons QB Matt Ryan repeat his incredible season 2016? He is definitely off to a good start. In 2016, Ryan published a ridiculous 124 FORP (430 fancy points, 306 OFP). During Week 6 this season, he is "on the pace" for a FORP 120 (403 points, 283 FORP). Obviously, we can not rely on this level of efficiency to move forward, but even with a return to the Earth statistically, Ryan's PFP ranks sixth. The Fantasy Quarterback # 2 can afford a regression to the average and will always keep the QB1 value.
Dolphins WR Albert Wilson The No. 20 Fantasy, wide receiver, has seen the ground only on 61% of Dolphins passes this season. His OFP ranks 52nd. Wilson finished 37th or worse in four outings (50th or less in three), but in the top 10 in the other two games. He has four touchdowns, but a 0.7 OTD (this gap of 3.3 is the fourth highest in the league). Wilson's touchdowns required 24-, 43-, 72-, and 78-yard post-capture races, which is as hard to believe as they are unsustainable. The total OTD on these three pieces was … 0.03. Incredibly, he saw a target inside the 13-meter line of the opponent. This is one of the easiest calls in regression to the average for a decade, but Wilson will be on flexible radar if the Dolphins trade DeVante Parker.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett Another wide receiver is unlikely to maintain current production. Lockett is ranked 56th in the OFP wide receiver, but five touchdowns put him in 19th place in fantastic points. The difference of 3.4 between touchdown and OTD (1.6) is the third highest total in the league. Lockett scored in all three targets, but saw only one extra target inside the 10-yard line. His other scores required 10 and 25 yard runs. Lockett started 2018 with an impressive 10 touchdowns in three NFL seasons, including four in the last two seasons. Lockett is the player trying to negotiate this week.
Deep dive
Bear WR Taylor Gabriel has been discussed in this column before week 5 of Chicago, but last Sunday is further evidence that it is without a doubt the most underrated fantasy asset. Gabriel has earned 100 yards of winning for the second straight game and now manages a 22% target for the season (7.0 per game). Mitchell Trubisky's second target has at least five targets and four receptions in each of Chicago's five games. Available in nearly two-thirds of the ESPN leagues, it should be recovered and considered a marginal option of the WR3 against New England.
Colts RB Marlon Mack was finally healthy for a full Sunday match and this allowed him to easily lead the Indianapolis backfield by wearing (and in efficiency). Mack carried the rock 12 times for 89 yards and was targeted twice. Mack's sustained efforts are expected to solidify his role as the top ball carrier in an attack with an average of 3.0 touchdowns per game very strong this season. It should be noted that while Nyheim Hines was limited to three spans and three targets, he managed to capture Mack 29-23 and will continue to play an important role in the passes. Mack is available in 74% of ESPN leagues. Pick it up and consider it as a flexible option against the Bills this week and in the future.
Cowboys WR Cole Beasley Last weekend, Dak Prescott admitted after the game that the team was planning to attack the Jaguars CB Tyler Patmon slot machine and that the plan was working. Despite sustained efforts, Beasley should not be considered a reliable weekly starter for the moment. He had 17 catches for 193 yards and no goals on 24 targets in weeks 1-5, which was barely lower than in 2017, resulting in 36 catches on 62 targets for a total of 314 yards and four results in 15 games.
Needless to say, the Redskins' passing game was a disappointment. Alex Smith had a fantastic eleventh-place finish in the first week of the season, but was no better than 16th in four games. Paul Richardson (best weekly finish is 38th), Jamison Crowder (33rd) and Josh Doctson (67th) were all bustés. Fans Chris Thompson and Adrian Peterson and tight back Jordan Reed are the only players in this offensive to consider for your lineup most weeks.
Instant Attack
Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny recorded nine spans and two targets on Sunday, but only played 13 shots. His potential makes him a valuable asset on the bench, but nothing more with Chris Carson (24 shots) and Mike Davis (23 shots) more involved.
TE Panthers Greg Olsen was on the field for 58 of the Panthers' 59 offensive shots against Washington in Week 6. This is Olsen's first action since his 14th leg injury in his 14th win of the season in Week 1. The important role of Olsen and his seven A focused effort has put him back in trouble as a TE1 midpack.
Browns WR Damion Ratley stepped up with six catches and 82 yards on eight targets Sunday. Injuries in front of him on the depth chart allowed the 2018 sixth round pick to reach a career high of 62 clicks against the Chargers. He was on the field for 45 of the team's 50 game passes. With Rashard Higgins expected to lose more time and Rod Streater finished for the year, Ratley is expected to be the No. 3 wide receiver of the squad for a troubled secondary from Tampa Bay this week. It's a sneaky game in the deep leagues.
Patriots WR Josh Gordon was unleashed. The former Brown (they could really use it today) was on the court for 35 of New England's 37 assists Sunday night, scoring nine targets in the game. The production was not excellent (five catches, 42 yards), but the better days are coming with Gordon who will now play a full series of snaps in one of the best offensives in the league. He's a WR3 against Chicago this week.
Bearing Eagles: Week 6 marked the Eagles' first game with Jay Ajayi in the injured reserve. Corey Clement was limited but still played 25 shots, handling 11 staves and three targets. Wendell Smallwood led the unit with 42 snapshots and 18 spans, adding a pair of targets. Josh Adams was active but did not play instantaneously. We should expect a similar dynamic, even though Clément thinks that it will be necessary to work healthier and that Darren Sproles will participate significantly in the pass when it comes back from a thigh injury. Smallwood and Clement are flexible options against Carolina this week.
Bengals WR Tyler Boyd has been on the field for 84% of the Bengals' snaps, including 88% of the passes this season. He manages a target share of 23% and ranks 19th in the extended receiver position in OFP (79) and 12th in real fantasy points (107). Boyd is experiencing a third year escape and should be locked into weekly queues.
RB Lions Kerryon Johnson has been on the field for 40% of Detroit shots, has completed a course on 29% of the team's passing games, manages 45% of scopes and has accumulated a target share of 7%. Johnson entered Week 6 for the 35th at the position in OFP. The rookie remains in a rotation in Detroit and is no longer a fragile flex until he assumes a larger role.
Saints WR Cameron Meredith was on the field for a season high of 59% of the Saints' passing games and also reached the season's top scoring with five targets when the Saints were on the field against Washington in Week 5. Meredith became the the team's first target for slot machines, but requires a little more game time and target volume to make it a consistent flex option. Nevertheless, he should be on the benches.
Hot questions
Can I start running with the Titans with confidence now? No – the offense of the Titans is a mess. Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis combined for a horrific 40-yard rush in 15 touchdowns against Baltimore on Sunday. Henry has not yet produced a week in the top 40 and Lewis has two tries out of six. Lewis '15% target share keeps him in the limelight, but he is a fragile game with the Titans' offensive with an average of 1.0 touchdowns per game almost unbelievable and the worst in the league. Henry is late on Lewis in the stakes and is not a factor as a receiver, meaning he barely deserves a spot in the lineup of the 10-team leagues.
is 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin a fantastic weekly starter? I would consider the match, but yes. QB C.J. Beathard is a clear downgrade to Jimmy Garoppolo, but the second-year setter was better than expected. The Packers side team struggled, but Goodwin was in good health Monday night, seeing the pack on 95% of the team's shots while using its world-class speed to win several big wins, including two touchdowns. His ability to play and Beathard's skill make Goodwin a weekly flex option.
is Falcons TE Austin Hooper now a TE1? Otherwise, he is close. Hooper captured nine passes in back-to-back matches and 22 targets during the period. He turned his heavy workload into a pair of over 70 reception efforts and a touchdown. While Ridley and Sanu were both injured on Sunday, but given the severity of the injury, Hooper is on a short list of players you can feel confident about. He is in the top 10 marginal against the Giants in Week 7.
AT Cardinals WR Christian Kirk did he make his way into the WR3 discussion? Despite great efforts lately, I would not go that far. Kirk has accumulated 76 passing yards in three of his last four games and is the most notable fan of 31st place in the period. The problem is that Arizona's offensive is struggling badly and that the average of 6.0 goals per game in Kirk is not enough to allow consistent whimsical figures when opportunities to hit wheels are still too rare.
is WR Packers Brand Valdes-Scantling Is it worth it to be registered goodbye? Outside the leagues of the dynasty, no. The rookie of the fifth round was impressive, but Packers NFL Nation reporter Rob Demovsky agrees that he will return to fourth on the depth chart once Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison return (after week 8). Valdes-Scantling has 10 passes for 171 yards and 16 goals in two games, but that's no more than the rare rare handcuffs at the wide catcher position.
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