Fantasy football – Fantastic intelligence for the 32 NFL teams before the fourth week, including Deshaun Watson, Kareem Hunt and Jimmy Garoppolo

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Note that Monday Night Football's data may not be reflected in the graphs of the article until Tuesday afternoon.

L & # 39; infirmary

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo: The emerging Niners superstar tore his ACL and came out for the season. This means that the team will return to C.J. Beathard. The 49ers' offense scored eight touchdowns in Beathard's five starts last season. The third round pick of 2017 has targeted a running back (including back Kyle Juszczyk) on a staggering 35% of his shots, with another 18% going for tight goals. Carlos Hyde handled 48 targets (22% of the shares) during this period and experienced a sharp fall in the department when Garoppolo took over. This suggests that Matt Breida, Alfred Morris and Juszczyk could benefit from this decision in the target department. Overall, the position of the players in the team must be significantly reduced. Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon are WR3 / flex materials, at best, George Kittle is a TE1 fringe, and Breida and Morris are flexible options.

Rams CBs Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib: This may not seem like a "fantastic" entry, but these injuries could have important implications for opposing receivers, especially with the Vikings in play this Thursday. Both players left Sunday's game with ankle injuries. Sam Shields and Troy Hill are the next men to take the position, Nickell Robey-Coleman being suspended in the slot. Shields and Hill may well be strong (Shields was once the Packers' corner number one), but the duo is clearly a major downgrade from stars Peters and Talib. Watch this throughout the week, but Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are expected to benefit on Thursday night.

Opportunity alert

Throughout this piece, I will refer to "OFP" and "OTD". OFP is synonymous with whimsical points suited to opportunities. Imagine a league in which players are created equal. OFP is a statistic that weighs each pass / result / target and converts the data into a number that indicates the opportunity of a player to score fantastic points, or his total of "expected" fantasy points. For example, if a player has an OFP of 14.5, it means that an average player in the league who saw the same workload in the same area of ​​the field would have got 14.5 fantastic points. OTD works the same way, except instead of fantasy points, these are touchdowns.

That said, here is the OFP ranking of week 3:

Week 3 OFP Ranking

* Full rankings will be posted to ESPN + this week

Saints RB Alvin Kamara He finished in the first three weeks and is currently among the top three fantasy. Unlike last season, Kamara's domination is fueled by a large volume and not by exceptional efficiency. Kamara averaged 3.8 yards per race (up from 6.1 last season), 7.6 yards per target (after 8.4) and one touchdown for all 22.3 hits ("down" 15 , 5). In contrast, Kamara completes the NFL in the OFP (99 points expected) and OTD (5.0 touchdowns). Considering that he is at 95 real fantastic points and three scores, Kamara is actually underperforming his expected numbers. Kamara is a good bet to maintain enough volume to allow strong RB1 numbers, although Mark Ingram II is wary of his return from suspension in Week 5.

Bill QB Josh Allen He ranked sixth in the quarter with 21 OFP at week 3. He easily outperformed that mark with 28 fantastic points in his career and must now be taken even more seriously as a potential fantasy option. Last week, in this column, I compared the game from Allen to DeShone Kizer around 2017, and this continued in the third week. The difference between the two young passers-by is that Allen was more efficient with high value usage (at least after a strong 3 week). Allen is in the QB2 mix against Green Bay and should be in the leagues at 16 and two quarters.

With three weeks in the books, Texans QB Deshaun Watson leads all quarters with an OFP of 72. Only Kamara has a higher OFP in all positions. Watson underperformed expectations (59 points), but the opportunity suggests he's headed for better days. Watson has finished each of the last two weeks as a fantastic quarterback. Incredibly, Houston is the only team to have played only one offensive game in advance this season.

Rams WR Robert Woods has resumed last season as a favorite target of Jared Goff. Woods has a goal of 29%, and he is seventh off with 57 OFP (55 real points). Woods production is legitimate and it is a viable weekly WR2. Teammates Brandin Cooks (18th at WR in OFP) and Cooper Kupp (28th) should also be aligned each week.

Deep dive

The Browns made the obvious decision to promote Baker Mayfield in the starting functions. Mayfield was great in his NFL debut in Week 3, completing 17 out of 23 attempts for a total of 202 yards, with just one less throw. The Mayfield promotion is good news for offensive team players, who have been largely in check for two and a half games. Jarvis Landry was Mayfield's target on nine (or 41%) of his targeted 22 shots and remains a solid WR2 game. Antonio Callaway is a must-add on waivers after running a route on the 41 sets of team passes and managing 10 targets against the Jets. David Njoku and Duke Johnson Jr. have so far been at the party, but production is expected to be larger under Mayfield's center. Both should at least stay on the lists. Mayfield, by the way, is better perceived as a QB2 with a benefit than if we see it producing on a larger sample.

Dolphins WR / KR Jakeem Grant has only scored 10 offensive hits in three games, but ranks 36th in the fantastic points position, thanks to three touchdowns (two catches, a comeback). Before you rush to the quit line to retrieve it, consider that its production is extremely unsustainable. Grant only played seven times in the third week of the attack, which was behind or tied with Kenny Stills (37), DeVante Parker (29), Danny Amendola (26) and Albert Wilson (seven). Unless Grant plays a bigger role, he will not lead the team in goals (he has 15) for a long time.

The Cowboys season has a difficult start, but it has not stopped Ezekiel Elliott to lead the NFL by rushing through three weeks. In fact, Elliott averages 5.7 yards per race and is in the lead for 1,461 yards, which would have led the league by 134 yards last season. Elliott's lack of efficiency (11 catches for 37 yards on 17 targets) and the absence of goal-line work (two shots inside the 10-yard line) limited him to the eighth point on more fantastic of the position. These are not perfect circumstances, but Elliott's heavy volume should continue to allow solid RB1 figures, and there is room for even more.

What's in the box?

The number of defenders in the box has a gigantic influence on the wearer's ability to generate time savings.

In the third week, the backs were the highest average defensemen in the box (at least 20 staves):

RBs vs. the highest average of defensemen in the box (at least 20 staves):

Speaking of recruits, Sony Michel & # 39; s The NFL's career started slowly, but it did not help him to see more than eight men in 42% of his 24 scans (seven more than 71%). The Patriots are upset when Michel is on the field, qualifying the shooter 71% of the time. New England was shot on only 16% of non-quarter points (sixth lowest). Michel's role as a leader in this attack is on the rise, but he may not flourish until Julian Edelman's return and Josh Gordon will help open the offensive.

These are the backs that have seen the least defenders boxed:

RBs vs the lowest average defender in the box (min 20 staves):

Although Kerryon Johnson, Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey Having benefited from light boxes, the trio was also very successful ball. Ekeler trails only the aforementioned Breida with a YPC 3.7 higher than its expected mark of 4.4. Johnson (+1.3) and McCaffrey (+1.6) played the ball very well, and the first is about to take full control of the Lions' field, while the latter is a return to the top five weekly.

Fast attack

Bears WR Taylor Gabriel has been targeted 22 times in three games, but that allowed him only 15 catches for 89 yards and no touchdowns. The efficiency (26 fantastic points ranks 57th at the position) is atrocious, but the opportunity (41 OFP ranks 24th) is good. Rookie WR Anthony Miller should miss a significant time with a shoulder injury, which should help cement the great role of Gabriel. It is a sub-radar target that could provide flexible numbers at the end of the line.

Bengals WR Tyler Boyd was on the field for 38 of the Bengals' 47 passes and took seven more targets in the third week. We can say that the first receiver of the Bengals is in full bloom in his third season. Admittedly, Boyd's current level of production (52 fantastic points) is unsustainable (32 FOPs), but said that the OFP still ranks 34th in the rankings. Boyd has two touchdowns, but they hit his only two targets within 11 yards of the end zone. He will need more work near the goal line to handle the first 20 productions.

The Jaguars' offense had difficulties at six points and failed to score a touchdown when defeating the third week against Tennessee. From the good side, Keelan Cole He also emerged as the team's top receiver by completing 35 of the possible 37 routes and reaching a top with nine targets. Cole ranks 42nd at OFP (29), but is the number one target in an attack that, believe it or not, is the heaviest unit in the league (13 points higher than expected ). Cole is a mix WR3 / flex.

Raiders WR Jordy Nelson exploded for 173 yards and a score on six catches (eight targets) during week 3. After the ex-packer, he totaled five catches, 53 yards and no touchdown on eight targets during weeks 1- 2. Nelson is now No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper with two points, three assists and one target for the season. Nelson's target share of 15% is not going to cut it, but if his big week 3 gets closer to 20%, he will definitely join the conversation on the flex. However, he will find it hard to trust, especially considering his 26 OFP's are well below his 40 fantastic points and rank 49th at the position.

Packers RB Aaron Jones debuted in 2018 on Sunday. The second-year return was as efficient as usual (42 yards in six races), but was limited to six runs and one 16-shot target. Jamaal Williams (28 caps, five spans, two targets) and Ty Montgomery (19 snapshots, four spans, seven targets) played important roles. None of the three backs are reliable weekly starters and should only be considered as a flexible one-week darts game. Jones is the strongest.

Hot questions

should Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald to be on benches? I do not think so, especially with the team that should turn to rookie QB Josh Rosen. Fitzgerald is battling an injury, but he was still on the court for 27 of the 30 assists in Week 3. Arizona has an incredibly low average of 47 ppg, which is difficult even for a foul incompetent. Fitzgerald remains a prime target in an attack that seems to have a quarterback boost, so he's still viable against Seattle this week.

should Falcons WR Calvin Ridley to be stuck in the lineups after an explosion of three touchdowns in week 3? Not enough. Ridley had a game against A with P.J. Williams / Ken Crawley on Sunday and took the opportunity. The rookie was still in third position at the road stand (26), followed by Julio Jones (34) and Mohamed Sanu (32). Ridley is in flexible conversation in leagues that start three big receivers (especially with two teams goodbye), but life will be a little tougher against William Jackson III and the Bengals in Week 4.

can Jets WR Robby Anderson to be abandoned? Yes. Anderson was outstanding in 2017 and, to be honest, it's ridiculous that New York does not create ways to put the ball in his hands, but the fact is that Anderson is not close to the relevance of fantasy at the moment. He actually ran fewer routes than Terrelle Pryor in Week 3 and was only targeted 11 times on the season. It should be noted that Anderson did not really bloom until mid-season in 2017, but he was much more involved than that from the beginning. There are worse players to keep at the end of your bench, but Anderson is not a must.

can Redskins WR Josh Doctson to be abandoned? Yes. Doctson leads the Washington offensive (175) and assists (95), but ranks fifth (11). Quarterback Alex Smith channeled the shots to his semifinals (28 targets) and tight ends (24), saving only 36 for the wide trio of receivers consisting of Doctson, Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder. The trio ranks respectively 81st, 70th and 60th in OFP at the wide receiver. None can be started in fantasy right now.

East Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber a viable flex? Not enough. Barber racked up 35 races in weeks 1 and 2, but was held at 91 yards (2.6 YPC) and added only one. Tampa Bay playing from behind Monday night, he was limited to eight runs for 33 yards and no catch. Barber is very dependent on heavy carry volume and touchdowns (the latter has escaped him so far) and is a zero in the passing game. He should not be in the lineup, but he deserves a place on the bench, since he is leading a good attack.