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More week 7
All NFL teams have to deal with injuries, but it's hard to remember a hit team as hard The Atlanta Falcons were the first half of this season. Their problems worsened on Tuesday when they placed Devonta Freeman in the injured reserve to undergo surgery at the groin. Although it is possible that Freeman could return for the last weeks of the season, his Fantasy season is essentially over. Let's see what it means in Fantasy.
The best place to start is what the Falcons have done up to now in the four games played by Freeman. Tevin Coleman was the leader, but Atlanta stayed true to the committee's approach. Coleman has an average of 13.7 carries and three targets per game. Its counterpart, Ito Smith, recorded an average of 7.3 litters and 2.5 targets. For what it's worth, in the 6th week, Coleman saw his lowest total shots (38) and Smith's best (31). In other words, it looks a lot like what he did with Freeman and Coleman, except that both halves are less than 4 yards per race.
Smith has rushed for a touchdown in the last three weeks, but Coleman still has more shots in the red zone and in the 10, which could be noise. I would not say that one is particularly more likely to score than another, even with what we've seen from Smith recently.
The biggest difference for this team is the state of defense. The Falcons have had a much more balanced offense over the past two seasons, but with half of their defense hurt, they relied heavily on Matt Ryan. They handed 60% of their offensive games this year and that figure was only 55%. Most major injuries are long-term problems, so we should not expect this to change. For this reason, Ryan will remain in the top five of the quarter most weeks, but it's not great for the backs.
I would expect a separation almost favorable to Coleman. It will be a No. 2 semi-final or a high-end flex. Smith is expected to become a popular waiver addition this week, but rather a low-end flex week after week. He would benefit if Coleman suffered an injury, so he has more than his weekly projection suggests. if we see more evidence that Smith is the red zone back, he will gain additional value.
In the end, it's a real committee approach for a poorly defended team. The Falcons did not run the ball particularly well when they tried. You probably start Coleman by the byes, and you should add Smith if you're desperate for the halves, but do not panic.
If you're looking for Devonta Freeman replacements, Jamey Eisenberg has them this week's waiver wire.
So who should you sit down and start? And what shocking QB could you win in week 7? See you now on SportsLine to get the Fantasy Football ranking for each position and see what QB shocked in the top 5 this week, all from the model that beat the experts in strength last season.
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