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By now, you've probably seen the rant.
I say this because it seems like everyone has seen the rant. If you have not, you can watch it right above. But I can not tell you how many tweets, texts, DMs and emails I got from friends, co-workers and fellow fantasy players about it. They said some version of the same thing. "Man, I'm sorry for your bread, that's awful, but I can relate."
Because they've been there.
Story after story poured in. "I think you're bad, listen to this one."
I often write about the unifying aspect of fantasy football, the language of the world and how it works. I talk about the joy, the hope and the light.
I do not talk about the bread.
Late Monday night, after the game, I was sunk into my couch with only the glow of the television faintly illuminating the room. The rest of my family was long asleep, Scott Van Pelt and Steve Stanford were on the TV, and I just lay there. Depressed. Why do I do this to myself?
Why do we care so much? I get wanting to win, I get disappointed when I do not. I get the frustration that comes from spending a whole week of preparation of a game where, every week, half of all the teams will take an L. But the end of the day His life is dedicated to fantasy football – it's still a make-believe game.
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2 Related
And so, I sat on my couch, just destroyed. Like, legitimately depressed. The night before that intense rant, I was seriously questioning why I play this dumb game.
Make no mistake, logically, I get it. I had some bad luck. I did not know what to do in fantasy football. I did the research, I played the odds that gave me the best chance to win a bunch of cheap events, I fell just short. It happens. Every week, all the time, to anyone who has ever played the game.
It makes complete and total sense and my brain just nods. While my heart just crumbles. Emotionally, I am just destroyed. Why does this game do this to us? How do we get so wrapped up, so we do not have to go to a place where we do not have a job? August?
When I win a game, I'm happy, but you know my overriding emotion? Relief. Relief that I did not lose. That my make-believe collection of players scored more than my opponent's make-believe collection. That I do not have to feel like crap. And if the reaction, I'm not alone.
To be clear, I took this one. In fact, I never have. Goal I do truly care. That was a reaction I heard a lot. People were surprised that this year, all these years later.
Oh, I care. I always care. The issue is time. I'm in 12 leagues, plus the two "Vampire" leagues. There's another 15 or so that I "help" with and need to keep reasonable track of. There's DFS of racing and smaller games, like Pigskin Pick 'em and Eliminator. All in all, I probably made some decisions a week. Some of them fall through the cracks. There's a league where I've known that I would like to know that I would like to know that it would be better deal. But I definitely care about every single league I'm in.
The league is called The Scott Fish Bowl and if you are active on Twitter, you can see a bunch of people tweeting about it, especially in the middle of July, when we draft. Some of us, Le'Veon Bell. Yeah, this rant was months in the making.
The league is run by my friend Scott Fish, a fantasy analyst for Fanball. Scott is just an awesome human being and he is a leader in support of a great cause, and the whole industry has rallied around it. There are 800 teams divided into 12-team leagues with 22-man rosters. It is a "super flex" league, where you can play four flex players, including one QB, so ideally you are starting two quarterbacks with three traditional flex players.
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Half-point PPR, half-point per first down, except you get one point for tight end receptions and one point for tight end first downs. Also, no kickers or defense, which I love. If you used standard ESPN roster size and kickers and defenses, it is basically the equivalent of an 18-team league. Unless you've ever played in an 18-team league, you have no concept of how deep it is.
Coming into this week, I have lost five of six. I had a lot of comments about folks about how they could not believe an expert had lost five games, but I did not want to lie. I'll own it. Here's the team that I started this past week:
QB: Carson Wentz, Alex Smith
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Sony Michael, James White, Marshawn Lynch, Alfred Morris
WR: Julian Edelman, Antonio Callaway Dede Westbrook
YOU: Greg Olsen
I have the aforementioned Le'Veon Bell on my bench and Jack Doyle in my training room. I also had drafted Larry Fitzgerald, which was my biggest miss in the draft. Middle of July, in this format, thought he'd be a star. Just dead wrong. He has been unstartable. But other than Larry Fitz? I think that's a strong team in that deep league. A little weak at wide receiver, but given that I've gotten zero from my first-round pick and almost nothing from my tight ends in a tight-end heavy format? I'm pretty happy that I'm still able to compete.
I lost the week by 3.8 points to a guy who got that crazy on Monday Night Football performance from Mark Ingram, against my Redskins.
Lost the week before that by 4.8 points to a team that started and got six touchdowns from Mitchell Trubisky. That's right. He needed a six-touchdown game to beat me by four points.
Prior to that, Callaway had become the 14th person in NFL history to get 10 targets in a game and fewer than 10 receiving yards (hat tip to Ryan McDowell for that stat).
You can not make it up.
On and on, it has been like that in that league. Starting with the early draft, Le'Veon Bell deciding his career is more important to him than my fantasy team, and all the close losses … I was down 0.9, he was done and I had Alfred Morris needing one tiny little point. Not even 10 yards: a six-inch dive for a first down would have been enough. Morris plays literally just one snap, gets a first down call back because of a holding penalty … and I lose again, 158.64 to 157.74.
WHY COULD NOT ALFRED MORRIS GET ONE STUPID POINT?!?!?
So depressed. And then the next morning, when it came up on the podcast, I just snapped. And it was so much easier to enjoy your misery.
I have thought so much about it, how does it affect us, and I believe it is because we have the illusion of control in reality, we have none. All we can do is watch and hope and pray.
I'm on the edge of my couch, watching every single play Monday night like a hawk. Where is Alfred Morris? Is it getting lined up in the backfield? I can not see that guy's number, is it him? I did not remember the last time I went through an emotional roller coaster like that. Except maybe the day before. And the Thursday before that. And the Sunday before that. It's unlike anything else in my life, this relationship I have with fantasy football. After the rant, Scott Van Pelt reached out, he wrote this: It's why fantasy football is so great and terrible. The despair and joy. Side by side. Each can reach out and touch the other.
That they can, Scott. That they can.
And after I got that rant out, I felt better. And I started looking at my 7 matchups, I started making waiver claims and what do you know? Bring it on, Fantasy Gods. Because you owe me one.
Let's get to it. A reminder, this is based on projections for ESPN PPR leagues. "Loves" are players I think meet their projections, "Hates" are players I feel fall short. Thanks as always to "Thirsty" Kyle Soppe and the Stat-A-Pillar himself, Damian Dabrowski, for their help at various points in this column.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 7
Jameis Winston vs. Browns (ESPN projection: 18.7): Great matchup here, at least 298 passing yards OR multiple TDs in five of six games this season. (The lone exception was Sam Darnold, in Cleveland, on a short week.) The three times QBs have attempted more than 35 assists against the Browns, they've averaged 356.7 passing yards. Dating back to 2017, Winston has at least 35 attempts in the past. Tampa Bay QBs are second in fantasy points per game (27.57).
Kirk Cousins at Jets (ESPN projection: 18.4): The Jets blitz at the fifth-highest rate (30.3 percent). Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards against the blitz of this season and ranks behind only Drew Bree in completion percentage when blitzed. Cousins is averaging 43 pass attempts per game, he is fifth in the NFL in passing yards and third in completion, and now he gets a Jets team that has at least 20 fantasy points to QBs in each of the past three weeks (the Falcons are the only other team that has done that).
Carson Wentz vs. Panthers (ESPN projection: 18.3): The Eagles have had 10 days to prep for a Panthers team that has a touchdown on 81.8 percent of the second worst in the NFL. Wentz certainly looks healthy, at least 20 points in three straight games Andrew Luck for the longest active streak among QBs). In those three weeks, he ranks as QB6 in terms of total points (ahead of Patrick Mahomes). Worth noting: Wentz has more than 275 passing yards and multiple TDs in three straight games, something that, a prior to this run, he had never done in his career.
Baker Mayfield at Buccaneers (ESPN projection: 16.7): You know who chucks it deep? Baker Mayfield chucks it deep. Among QBs currently starting, he ranks high (9.24). Among the many things the Bucs' defense is with the deep ball. They are tied with the Saints for the highest deep completing percentage (59 percent, league average: 44.8 percent) and deep completions allowed per game (4.60, league average: 3.24). Mayfield has the fourth most popular (trailing only Luck, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco), which makes him my favorite streamer this week.
Others receiving votes: Mitchell Trubisky is the fourth-best QB in fantasy since Week 4. And that includes Week 5, when, you know, he was on a bye. Six touchdowns will do that for you, but it's also fifth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. That keeps his floor high, especially against Patriots defense allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to QBs. … It has certainly been ugly, but believe it or not, Eli Manning now has five straight games with 250-plus passing yards. Atlanta will have no issue putting down points on the Giants, which means that it will not be possible to keep up to 21.5 points to a QB in five of six games this season. … last week and here C.J. Beathard has at least 17.8 points in three straight games (multiple passing TDs in each). The only QBs who can say that? Tom Brady, Wentz, Luck and Beathard. Junk time still counts, baby.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 7
Deshaun Watson and Jaguars (ESPN projection: 15.6): Man, he has looked at a real-life-football point of view. And once you've caught up with him, with just two TDs (after every 34.5 attempts) after throwing multiple TD passes in each of the prior three games (once every 19 attempts). (41.4 percent of dropbacks) and the Jaguars (35.3 percent). For his career, Watson has seven TDs and eight INTs versus pressure (21 and 7 when not pressured). I like the luck of the Jags' defense bouncing back more than Watson in this one.
Drew Brees at Ravens (ESPN projection: 15.9): Brees has played one outdoor road game this season. That was against the Giants and he scored 8.6 points. He has traditionally struggled on the road outdoors (he scored less than 14.5 points in three of six such games last season). Other than the Steelers, the Ravens have not played a strong offense in the past four weeks, but still they've allowed just two touchdowns in their past four games.
Dak Prescott at Redskins (ESPN projection: 16.2): There have been 128 instances this season – from 36 quarterbacks – of a QB completing 20 or more passes in a game. None of those 36 QBs are named Dak Prescott. He has a league-high four games in which he has thrown at least 25 passes and failed to pass for at least 200 yards. You're counting on rushing with Dak and the Redskins allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per carry to QBs this season (3.19). The 42-point over / under is the lowest in Week 7.
Alex Smith vs. Cowboys (ESPN projection: 15.5): Smith has just one game with more than 220 passing yards and at least one touchdown pass. This does not seem like the game he changes that. A slow pace of play has resulted in Dallas being the fifth-least-passed-on team in the league this season. Because the Redskins' defense has done well this season, Smith has not needed to get into shootouts, and he's not really running, either, with just one game of more than 15 rushing yards.
Running backs I love in Week 7
Saquon Barkley at Falcons (ESPN projection: 21.9): The best part about doing this new way of doing love / hate is that I can now talk about "obvious" guys like Barkley. I'm taking a step forward in this game, including the likes of Jay Ajayi, Giovani Bernard and Peyton Barber. Forget his rushing for a second; Barkley has more catches than Keenan Allen and more receiving yards than Demaryius Thomas and Calvin Ridley, to name a few. The Falcons are giving up more than eight receptions. My No. 1 running back this week.
Joe Mixon at Chiefs (ESPN screening: 18.1): Say what you want about Marvin Lewis (seriously, go ahead, what do I care?), But the man commits! One back for him and that's it. Injuries have something to do with it, of course, but in Mixon's four games and Giovani Bernard's two starts, the lead back has gotten at least 20 keys. That volume should work against the Chiefs, which gives rise to 5.32 yards per year. more.
Tarik Cohen vs. Patriots (ESPN projection: 10.1): In the past three weeks, Cohen is the fourth-best RB in fantasy on points-per-game basis (only Todd Gurley II, Barkley and Melvin Gordon have been better). Of course the Bears had a bye in Week 5, but in the past two games they have played, Cohen has out-touched Jordan Howard 32 to 25 and their snaps are almost equal (64 for Howard, 59 for Cohen). He has 18 carries for 84 yards and has TD, 14 catches for 211 yards and a TD in those two games, and I expect that production to continue against a Patriots defense that coughs up the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs.
Phillip Lindsay at Cardinals (ESPN showing: 11.8): The always-risky call of a guy in a committee on a Thursday night, but I just lost by one point because of Alfred Morris. What the hell. In the past three games, Lindsay has at least 10 keys in each game, has caught 11 balls and has a 15-6 red zone snap over Royce Freeman. The Cardinals are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, allowing almost 200 total yards to game to opponing backs. They've allowed 10 touchdowns to run backs, the second-most fantasy points per game and what are the Broncos gonna do, let Keenum's Case throw it? Exactly.
Others receiving votes: Running backs who have gotten 15 more points against the Dolphins this season (four instances) have averaged 19.3 points per game. The only question is will Kerryon Johnson get 15 carries? I'm not sure, but I do not know how to improve my view of 10.1 points. … With the Chargers more than a favorite touchdown, I like Austin Ekeler and his amazing 3.34 yards per carry after contact to get some nice run in the second half and be flex-play worthy. If you listened to the podcast this week, you know I am a believer in Ito Smith being top-25-or-so-worthy against the Giants. Since his first carry in Week 2, Smith leads the Falcons into rushing attempts inside the opponent's 10-yard line and leads the Falcons with 13 red zone carries (six more than Tevin Coleman). Giants' opponents have cashed in four rushing attempts inside the NFL. … It took a bit, but with Jameis Winston under center last week, Peyton Barber finally got going (17 keys for 106 yards and a TD … RB9 finish), and I like his chances of keeping it going against a Browns team allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season and the third-most yards per carry after first contact. … And you know all those stats I gave in the Lindsay Phillip section about how bad the Cardinals are? They also apply to Royce Freeman, who, while certainly risky, has a decent chance to hit dirt in this one. Royce, this is it. How lucky do you feel?
Running backs I hate in Week 7
Jordan Howard vs. Patriots (ESPN projection: 11.8): Howard has not caught a ball since Week 3 and is trending in the wrong direction, as he was averaging 45 snaps the first three games but just 32 in the past two. Of course, while Howard's playing time is going down, the Bears' offense has gotten better. This set up a Cohen game that a Howard has against a New England defense.
T.J. Yeldon vs. Texans (ESPN projection: 16): For the season, Yeldon ranks as a bottom-10 RB That's an issue, because the Texans allow the fifth-fewest yards per carry before first contact this season. Yeldon has yet to have a game with 60 rushing yards, so he'll need to be effective catching the ball. However, Houston is allowing the sixth-to-many yards to be targeted when targeting RBs this season. You gotta start him if you have him, but gimme the under on 16 points.
Lamar Miller at Jaguars (ESPN projection: 10.8): In his past three games, Miller is averaging just 2.69 yards per carry. And now he gets an embarrassed Jaguars defense in Jacksonville? Yeesh. The Jags are a top-10 defender in terms of limiting the area and limiting the efficiency of the opponents. The odds of Miller scoring his first rushing touchdown of the season are not great.
Dion Lewis vs. Chargers in London (ESPN projection: 11.1): In the past three games for Lewis, he has 21 carries for 43 yards (2.05 YPC). The Sean McCoy is the only RB to rush for more than 70 yards against the Chargers this season. I do not see Lewis getting that kind of volume (he averages 10 carries per game this season). He has two games with two or three more games, and he has two games in the past. Since Week 2, he is just RB45. After this game, the Titans are on bye, so you need the space roster, feel free to drop him.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 7
Odell Beckham Jr. at Falcons (ESPN projection: 19.5): Remember 2016, when Beckham was WR4? He was WR22 through 5 weeks in this season before a breakthrough game. Through six weeks this season, he's WR13. His 30.7 percent target share this season only Adam Thielen and Julio Jones, and while, yes, Eli is #notgood, he has not been good for a while. Beckham will be leading the way in this game, which is most likely to get the most hits per game, the most touchdowns to the most popular games.
Tyreek Hill vs. Bengals (ESPN projection: 17.4): Eight different WRs have scored more than 15.5 points against the Bengals this season. Hill has 32 targets in his past games and I expect another huge game. The Bengals, Patrick Mahomes owns the highest pass rating when you go crazy Nick Foles season of 2013. And if he's within 80 yards of Mahomes, he'll get the ball.
Jarvis Landry at Buccaneers (ESPN projection: 16.2): You already know I think Mayfield throws the ball to your here. Well, a lot of that is going to Landry, who has a team-high 26th Mayfield under center. Opponents are completing the second half of the year (second-highest rate in the NFL). That's where Landry lines up.
Tyler Boyd at Chiefs (ESPN projection: 14.4): Boyd has a gold touchdown 100 yards in his past five games, and he should keep it going against a Chiefs defense that is a bottom 10 of the slot, in terms of catches, yards and yards after the catch per reception. Can you tell us which line belongs to A. Green's?
Player A: 37 catches on 51 targets for 455 yards and 4 TDs, 0 drops, recording on 17.1 percent of roads
Player B: 33 catches on 55 targets for 494 yards and 5 TDs, 3 drops, recording on 15.9 percent of routes.
Player A … is Boyd. Now, I'm still in the game, but still … I do not think people fully realize what they're dealing with here.
George Kittle vs. Rams (ESPN projection: 11.2): In a game I expect to get the most out of the world with the LA, it's worth pointing out the rules for Raiders, Cardinals, Chargers, Vikings, Seahawks, Broncos. Jared Cook and Kyle Rudolph are the only two real tight ends they've faced (sorry, Antonio Gates and Ricky Seals-Jones). Kittle is in the middle of tight ends in the past four weeks.
David Njoku at Buccaneers (ESPN projection: 10.6 points): His connection with Mayfield is growing, as evidenced by his 11 targets in each of the two games. In each of Baker's three starts, Njoku leads Cleveland in receptions and receiving yards. As we may have mentioned, this is a great matchup; Tampa Bay gives up 7.2 catches, 94.8 yards and the most fantasy points to tight ends.
Others receiving votes: We have per-game basis, the Saints are giving the most fantasy points to this season (51.86). I like John Brown and Willie Snead IV In this game, I expect Michael Crabtree to find him against Marshon Lattimore the most. … Taylor Gabriel has taken all 12 games (214 yards and 2 TDs), actually leads the Bears in receptions and yards this season targets. The Patriots have had six slot TDs this season (second most in the NFL). … Josh Gordon is coming off a game in which he is driving the team, and I'm taking a closer look at his 11.4-point projection against a Bears defense that has allowed the seventh-most deep TD passes this season. … With Quincy Enunwa out, I expect Jermaine Kearse to play the majority of sneaks in the slot against a Vikings team that has given up the fourth-most yards to the slot this season. Heavy target share for Kearse. … Austin Hooper now has at least nine catches and 70 yards in consecutive games (Zach Ertz is the only other tight end who can say that). Hooper has 22 targets in those games and I like him Monday night in a game where a lot of other receiving options are banged up. … In his first game back from injury, O.J. Howard played 13 more snaps and ran than Cameron Brate. I expect that gap to widen further this week in a more matchup. Thirteen of Winston's past 24 touchdown passes have gone to tight ends.
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 7
Demaryius Thomas at Cardinals (ESPN showing: 11.8): Thomas has seven or fewer targets in four straight games and his fantasy output has been bailed out by some late touchdowns. I much prefer Emmanuel Sanders to DT in a game where I expect Denver to go run heavy. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opponent WRs so far this season and Thomas is likely to see the most of Patrick Peterson in this one.
T.Y. Hilton vs. Bills (ESPN projection: 14.7): This game is at home, which helps, but I'm not sure what he says he's still not 100 percent and because he's likely to be shadowed by Buffalo's terrific young corner Tre'Davious White. The Bills have allowed the third-of-a-kind to come to the fore.
Will Fuller V at Jaguars (ESPN projection: 10.6): It's been a tough two-week stretch for Fuller, and things will get better. But not this week, not against this defense. 36.4 percent of deep attempts (tied for second lowest). They will get after Deshaun Watson as well, making it tough for deep plays to develop. Even with a modest projection of 10.6, I'm taking the under.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, is down to praying for stat corrections. He is the creator of RotoPass.com and one of the owners of the Fantasy Life app and FantasyLife.com.
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