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Ready or not, a quarter of the fantastic football season is now in the books. Although each year has its own mix of chaos, there is an undeniable surge in pass offenses as 400-yard games continue to accumulate. This means that more and more WRs are entering the flexible conversation, even in standard leagues, and that the number of trusted RBs is decreasing.
It is impossible to support all formats, but I will do my best to provide context as you go. The given RCT is for standard leagues as that is what we are marking. Please note that I am using the ECR Tuesday night and that updates will surely arrive from Wednesday morning. I will use players for which I am higher or lower against the consensus in a reasonable starting / sitting range ranging from 10 to 14 players, or more. Let's dive in.
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quarterbacks
beginning
Alex Smith (to NO): Mariano Rating: 12, RCT: 16
This tilt on Monday night already boasts an implied total of 52.5 from Vegas, rising rapidly from 51 open. The Saints are favored by a touchdown, which is more than just considering their offense and their home play, but that means a lot of work should land on Smith's shoulders (and legs). The Saints' defensemen limited Tyrod Taylor and Eli Manning to around 250 yards and one touchdown each, but were eviscerated by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Ryan for about 800 yards and nine touchdowns. Washington did not need Smith to hit the gas pedal often and he has not yet passed the 300-yard pass in three games, but we know he has one with sneaky racing potential .
Carson Wentz (vs. MIN): MR: 14, RSC: 18
Wentz and the Eagles are favored by a home placement against a Vikings defense after a 38-point backhanding under Rams' hooves, though the match only has a total of 44.5. Josh Allen scored three goals against the Vikes three times in the third week, and Wentz's situation can not be questioned after 50 unsuccessful attempts to defeat Tennessee in the second half. 4th week. Wentz looked good in motion and had no rust when connecting with Alshon Jeffery or Zach Ertz throughout the game, making it one of my favorite mid-range QBs for sneak into the top 12 this week.
I am taller than C.J. Beathard (vs. ARI): MR: 21 ECR: 27
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Blake Bortles (at KC): MR: 15, RCT of 12
What happens when a powerful attack from Kansas City plays at home against a solid Jacksonville defense that recently gave patriots in New England the look of an NCAA program? Hyperbole aside, this game will attract a lot of attention for this game with little discussion of the Jacksonville offense. When Leonard Fournette is away, Bortles makes great use of Bortles' potential, but his floor is simply worse than many other fluent options. I do not hatred Bortles at this place, but I find several better results to play.
I am below: Kirk Cousins (to PHI): MR: 16, ECR: 14
Running Backs
beginning
Aaron Jones (at DET): MR: 16, RCT: 25
Jones' 29 shots led Green Bay's three-man RB team (Jamaal Williams was just behind at 28 and Ty Montgomery was 20) en route to a nice 10-56-1 run against the Bills. Green Bay now travels to Detroit to compete on a team of Lions brutalized by Ezekiel Elliott for a total of 240 yards. He also dropped 167 yards to Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell in the first week and 239 yards to Matt Breida and Alfred Morris in Week 2. Even James White and Sony Michel combined for 100 yards in a dull performance.
Even though I think Jones is RB's top talent from Green Bay, I agree that the committee be used as long as Jones is 1A. They communicate with each other and are able to strike the battlefield. The Packs are the favorites of the road (by a point) in one of the six games with a total of 50 or more points projected per line of Vegas (they are currently at 51). This game could produce more than 200 yards between the three, so do not think that last week was a stroke of luck.
Phillip Lindsay (in NYJ): MR: 25, RCT: 32
It's becoming clear that Denver needs both of its rookie referees to carry out this offense because Case Keenum is just not a playmaker. It's not a revelation to most of you, but it's worth to be stressed when you have to play Lindsay. His 24 shots led all Denver RBs (Royce Freeman was 16, Devontae Booker was 20) while he had dominated Freeman 14-8, although both scored. Lindsay being the change of pace in a game, Denver is the slight outsider auspicious for his floor compared to Freeman who is more dependent on TD.
I am higher on Isaiah Crowell (vs. DEN): MR: 31, RCT: 37, Chris Carson (vs. LAR): MR: 35, RCT: 42.
seat
Dion Lewis (vs. BUF): MR: 33, RCT: 25
This is going to be a simple section: I do not want the RB in the lowest score of the week projected by Vegas. He opened with a total consensus of 39.5 and has already fallen to 39. Players in Lewis' turn should note that the Bills gave up at least 30 yards to four players on the back of the field and seven TDs in total at RB. But it seems like a great place to give Derrick Henry 18-20 touches. He averages only three yards per race, although Lewis is not much better (43-143-1 on the ground). Lewis will always have his on the screens, but it's a flexible game for him that lasts at least a week, rather than the low-end RB2.
Sean McCoy (vs. TEN): MR: 37, RCT: 29
McCoy is still struggling with a rib injury that made him miss Week 3 and hit the ball 29 times in three games. McCoy's skills should allow him to be script-proof, but no one is immune to Buffalo's attacks yet. Add to that a Titan defense that has not yet generated a DT and you have the recipe for disaster. It's really a sad waste of talent for a guy whose main window closes with his 30-year season.
I am below: Nyheim Hines (to one): MR: 41, ECR: 33
Wide receivers
beginning
Doug Baldwin (vs. LAR): MR: 24, RSC: 34
Say what you want about the state of the Seahawks, but their defense, Earl Thomas-less, risks being wiped out by the Rams. Even at home, Seattle probably needs a man aged 12, 13 and 14 to follow. This means, however, that Baldwin and Russell Wilson should have many reasons to compete against a Rams secondary at Aqib Talib who lost a combined 19-258-1 line to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Baldwin dominated Seattle with seven targets in Week 4 after missing two weeks with (another) knee injury, playing 76% of the shots back (Tyler Lockett scored six targets on 94%). He should often free himself from Marcus Peters and be the main weapon of choice for Russ in a difficult battle.
Quincy Enunwa (vs. DEN): MR: 26, RCT: 36
I was surprised to have sat in Enunwa for the last two weeks during which he scored almost identical lines 4-57-0 and 4-66-0 on eight targets each. Sam Darnold, the novice caller, caught only 21 out of 37 targets, which I think realizes he needs to further integrate Robby Anderson to counterbalance the offensive, but that's not the question.
Enunwa is clearly the favorite of this attack and Denver's defense has not been so hot. In addition to the greatness of Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos are on average in the league (between the 15th and the 17th) against No. 1, No. 2 and slots receivers by FootballOutsiders'Defense adjusted value on average data.
I am higher on: Taywan Taylor (at the BUF): MR: 43, ECR: 50, Jamison Crowder (to NO): MR: 45, ECR: 55Paul Richardson (to NO): MR: 52, RCT: 60
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Keelan Cole (to KC): MR: 36, RSC: 29
The body of the Jaguars WR is an interesting group. Donte Moncrief has the largest share of airfields with 35.28% (296), followed by Cole with 20.72% (192) and Dede Westbrook with 19.88% (166). The Jacksonville offense has been scored 77 times with Cole and Moncrief for 60 and Westbrook for 57. Westbrook has 28 targets in total, while Cole is 24 and Moncrief is 22. Blake Bortles avoiding the one and only formidable DB for the Jets at Trumaine Johnson, but Johnson is the victim of the TD of Moncrief. Cole has many teams, but I can not justify placing him so far above the others at this stage.
Antonio Callaway (vs. BAL): MR: 52, ECR: 42
It's never a good sign when your head coach talks about reducing play time on Monday. Callaway showed lightning bolts, but only caught 10 out of 25 targets, largely because of his lack of polish and apparently thinking of his next move before securing the ball. In addition, the Ravens find student DB Jimmy Smith to play alongside Marlon Humphrey, who has a strong 71.8 PFF rating so far on the perimeter. Baker Mayfield increases the value of those around him, but Callaway is not yet reliable despite his ability to play a lot.
Phillip Dorsett (vs. IND): MR: 79, ECR: 64, Michael Gallup (to HOU): MR: 77, ECR: 66Pierre Garcon (vs. ARI): MR: 65, ECR: 56
Tight ends
beginning
C.J. Uzomah (vs. MIA): MR: 15, RCT: 28
My condolences go to Tyler Eifert and I hope that he will be able to make another comeback, but the Bengals' passing attack intensifies in 2018 and Uzomah has been used more often than Tyler Kroft. Uzomah has eight out of five targets for Kroft, but the most important is how Uzomah played 70% of the shots in Week 4 compared to 27% for Kroft. Moderate expectations are the way Miami has rushed for 226 yards, but I'm waiting for extra work with the Xavien Howard corner that should stay true to A.J. Green as glue.
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Dallas Goedert (vs. MIN): MR: 26, ECR: 15
I do not like (or do not like) a lot of big TEs by a real margin, but I was surprised to see Goedert as high up. Maybe it will balance out as more ranks come up. He participated in only 40% of the catches with two targets in Week 4 after registering 67% in Week 3, which should be related to the return of Alshon Jeffery. I respect the capital proposed by Philadelphia on a talented TE, but its fantastic relevance is no greater than that of Trey Burton last season. When Zach Ertz is in good health, I do not see the reasons for playing Goedert.
Charles Clay (vs. TEN): MR: 21, RCT: 16
The Titans were manhandled by Zach Ertz (10-112-0) in Week 4, but kept Mike Gesicki, Jordan Akins, Ryan Griffin and Austin Seferian-Jenkins each under 25 meters in the first three weeks . Clay is somewhere between these names and Ertz, but he is closer to ASJ than rank 1 stud. With eight targets in three weeks, Clay was almost invisible before seeing six in week 4 As a result, PPR formats may be comforting because Josh Allen is a safety outlet, but I am absent.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer of FantasyPros. For more Nick, check out his archive and follow him @ NMariano53.
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