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It feels like we have waited forever, but the NFL is back. Real football, none of that in pre-season.
More week 1
We see the defending world champions start their title defense … sort of. We see the best runners in the world … most of them. We have finally finished watching the quarterbacks unless they are a fan of Eagles, Bills or Bucs.
OK, so it's not perfect, but it's our first real football week. This means that I have 10 things to know:
It looks like James Conner is the starting half for the Steelers.
Man, does that sound like that? I did not think it was realistic to think that Bell would escape the real games that would cost him money. He certainly does not speak as someone who planned to miss the regular season. And there is still a chance that he will show up on Saturday in time to get his check back from week 1. But at this point, we have to treat James Conner as the starter, at least for week 1.
For me, this makes things very simple – you start James Conner if you have him on your team. He is one of the top 10 runners I plan for 23 hits, 94 yards and a score. It's far from its ceiling in terms of distance. If this becomes a long-term hurdle for Bell, Conner could be a league winner. In one way or another, it is still available in 19% of the leagues.
The Eagles are still not at their maximum.
Yes, the defending champions will launch the season Thursday night against the Falcons. No, they will not be at full power. Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery are still recovering from their injuries, but that's not my only concern. This first team has played very little together in the pre-season and now has to face an improved and hungry Falcons team that thinks it should have busted them in the playoffs last year. Zach Ertz is the only eagle I am really excited to start, although Jay Ajayi and Nelson Agholor are good players.
Andrew Luck is back.
Now, we find out where he really is back. Luck took a few shots and looked good in the pre-season, but we still have not seen him unleashing the deep ball. Hopefully this will change during week 1 against a Bengal defense by starting with free security for the rookies and will be without Vontaze Burfict.
Although I'm not sure Luck has the same deep ball once, I'm quite comfortable in the first week. The Colts defense is awful and the game does not look better. Luck should be among the league leaders in passing attempts, which should offset any loss of efficiency.
The only player who could be injured if the chance has lost his fastball is T.Y. Hilton Hilton is not at all one-dimensional, but during his career, he has collected 14 catches of 30 yards or more. If this number decreases in 2018, it will be difficult to return to this level.
You are playing Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo and maybe even Russell Wilson.
Excited by your new bright quarterback toy? You may have to wait a week.
Mahomes travels to Los Angeles to face the shippers and Garoppolo is on the road in Minnesota. These are two of the toughest games in the league, and I'd rather start with Andy Dalton or Tyrod Taylor at week 1. If you're looking for more banners for this week, click right here.
Although there is not much controversy to compare Mahomes or Garoppolo, I imagine that most of you hate the idea of attending Russell Wilson. I understood. He was Fantasy's number 1 quarterback last year, but you have no points last year. Wilson is on the road in a challenging environment in Denver against one of the best defenses in the league. His best receiver is struggling with knee pain, his second option is either Tyler Lockett or Brandon Marshall. You've never heard of his tight end and I'm not sure that he has a racing game to speak of. Worse still, his offensive coordinator is known to slow things down and run the ball. I keep away from Wilson where I can.
The hopes of the recruits have a lot to prove.
It was not an excellent preseason for this class of recruits. Saquon Barkley, Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny all suffered injuries. Ronald Jones and Nyheim Hines were not injured, but their ego could have been. Nick Chubb and Kerryon Johnson are unlikely to see 10 hits in Week 1. Only Royce Freeman and Jordan Wilkins are out of the pre-season, seeming better than before.
For Barkley, the first week aims to prove that he is the number one match-proof. For Wilkins and Freeman, it's about consolidating their grip on the # 1 role of their own team. All the others are fighting to save time and try to prove that they deserve it. Hopefully some of these guys will remind us not to pay too much attention to the pre-season.
The Browns are not terrible. They could even be good.
This has been one of the scenarios of the off season, so I doubt you missed it, but I want to make sure you really understand it. Of course, Taylor is a big improvement over their old quarters. Carlos Hyde is better than Isaiah Crowell, and Jarvis Landry is certainly an improvement over Corey Coleman. But the biggest upgrade is not wearing pads. Todd Haley gives legitimacy to this offense, which has not existed for a long time. The Browns have good players and an excellent offensive coach to lead them. Well, it's like that on paper. I can not wait to know for real.
Jordan Reed and other injury-prone players are in good health, play them.
I was one of the weakest on Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert at training camp. I did not even have Sam Bradford in my quarterbacks. I'm not sure these three players are combining for 16 full games this year, and that's a big reason for that. But they are all healthy at the beginning of the first week, and the risk of injury for more than 60 minutes is well below that of 16 games.
Reed is one of the first five in the world for me and one of my favorite options in DFS. I think he'll be the favorite target of Alex Smith as long as he stays healthy. Eifert is still a No. 1 seed depending on touchdowns, but against the Colts, I really like his chances of finding himself in the end zone. Bradford is a quality streaming option that I would start on Mahomes and Garoppolo.
If a player is healthy before week 1, forget his injury history in terms of weekly projections.
Watch out for new-look offenses in Tennessee and Chicago.
We talked a lot about Matt Nagy, Mark Helfrich and Matt LaFleur. We hypnotized Corey Davis and Trey Burton. We discussed Derrick Henry against Dion Lewis. We now see these two new offenses working. I am particularly curious to know:
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Nathan Peterman are the quarterbacks of Week 1.
Yes, you will want to start the defenses of the Saints and Ravens. At least we can be sure that Fitzpatrick will put him forward enough to give his receivers opportunities. I'm afraid Peterman can sink all this Bills attack, but I always start LeSean McCoy in most situations.
So who should you sit and start this week? And where does each player pile up? Head over to SportsLine to get the Fantasy Week 1 football rankings for each position, and see which TE will finish in the top 10 this week, all on the model that did better than the experts last season.
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