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More Week 6
Andrew Luck still without T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle? It got worse.
Luck's performance over the last two weeks has been impressive, if only because he threw the ball 121 times in the space of five days and his arm is not falls. The fact that he pitched for 829 yards and seven touchdowns is not bad either.
In the space of two weeks, Fantasy owners have gone from "you can not trust luck, it will not throw in depth" to "how could you fight against luck?" Well, I'll tell you.
Against the Texans, the Colts lost two touchdowns before half-time and three goals in the middle of the third quarter. Then they had an extra hour to improve their statistics. The following week, facing New England, they had a deficit of 21-3 at the half. In these two game scripts, it made sense that Chance grabbed them. You do not compensate for these deficits with these infractions with the running game of the Colts.
The problem is, without T.Y. Hilton, Luck needs this type of volume to give you a good day. And it's not very likely that he will get it against the New York Jets. If his defense plays more like it did against Washington and Philadelphia, he will be in the 30-40 range for pass attempts, and it probably will not. I do not tell you to have put good luck this week, but I would much rather start with Andy Dalton or the next.
Jameis Winston is back as a starter and he gets a soft landing point.
If you read all that I wrote during the preseason, you know that Winston was excited once his suspension was over. Because of Fitzmagic, we had to wait a little longer than expected, but we can not look back. Winston's first start occurs against one of the worst defenses in the league, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons were bitten by wounds and largely dominated in Fantasy by the quarterbacks.
This match has the second highest total of the season (57.5), and most of these points will have to pass in the air, because Tampa Bay ranks last in front of the record of 3.1 YPC. Winston is a top six quarterback for me and our Beginning of the week. Start with confidence and do not be shy streaming Cameron Brate with him.
The Seahawks and the Raiders are in London.
It's always hard to guess what effect the London game will have on the teams. We have seen some teams completely disappear and others thrive. We saw shootings and defensive struggles. It's frustrating. This makes these two teams the perfect candidates to play.
The Seahawks have taken a very cumbersome approach, and it works. So, as long as they are in a positive gameplay scenario, I would not expect that to change. This is extremely frustrating for the owners of Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin. Wilson may have scored three touchdowns last week, but he has not started 30 assists in a game since the second week. You can not trust him with this low volume and unhurried production. Tyler Lockett is a type of trust. Lockett thrived on the big game, and the Raiders gave up more great games than any defense in the NFL.
For his part, Derek Carr seemed to be a good quarterback in terms of efficiency, but his performances in the red zone and the turnarounds seemed quite different. Amari Cooper has also been infuriating. I'm not sure we'll know more about this Raiders attack, but I'll start Marshawn Lynch and Jared Cook.
The Washington offensive is almost as difficult as that of the Falcons defense.
Much has been said about Falcons injuries, but take a look at Washington's injury report. Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson were both limited on Wednesday. Paul Richardson and Jamison Crowder both missed training. Josh Doctson did not play last week. Jordan Reed could be the only player in a good position, which is incredible. All this to say that the Panthers are a good DST game this week, and you can not consider Alex Smith. If you need a receiver in a very deep league, Maurice Harris may well be Smith's # 1 target.
Keep an eye on target shares for Bears and Texans.
At the beginning of the year, it's easy to be fooled by a few datasets, but there are certainly some interesting things to watch with the targets for Bears and Texans. For the Bears, it's Taylor Gabriel who looks like a 1B in the assists game at the expense of all who do not call Allen Robinson. For Texans, it's Keke Coutee who removes targets from Will Fuller because of Deshaun Watson's lack of time. If these trends continue this week, we will have to re-evaluate our perception of Gabriel, Fuller and Coutee.
We could have really ugly games in Cleveland, Tennessee and Dallas.
We're talking a lot about getting players into high score games, but it's just as important to avoid Fantasy misfires. And there are three main candidates this week.
The Ravens go to Tennessee in a game with a general total of zero players to start absolutely. John Brown and Corey Davis are both No. 2 scoopers and the Ravens two backs are better options than their Titan counterparts.
Jacksonville is in Dallas in a really easy match. Start the halves and the defenses. Try to get away from everything else. The only sneaky game on DFS could be Niles Paul, who saw nine targets last week.
Finally, the most difficult match is that of Los Angeles in Cleveland. The Browns have been a surprisingly good defense in many ways. They rank third in the fantasy score scored and fourth in the DVOA defense. They were even better against the pass, which allowed Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen to become low-end beginners rather than absolutely starting options. You can not sit down Melvin Gordon, but you should not trust Austin Ekeler.
The winter arrived early in Denver.
We're not even in mid-October, but the forecast in Denver this weekend looks like January. On Sunday, we expect 27 degrees with the risk of snow at the time of sending. It is terribly cold and Jared Goff has no experience of this kind. In the past, there is no evidence that cold weather has an impact at the macro level, but I worry a bit about what Goff considers is the number of good starting options that there are in the quarter. When it comes to rams receivers, you have to start with the one who is in good health.
The Packers play prime time at Lambeau.
This is interesting for two reasons. More specifically, their receivers are a mystery from Thursday. Randall Cobb is still struggling with a thigh injury and Geronimo Allison's status in the concussion protocol has not been updated. You must be prepared not to have the word of the end for these receivers when the queues lock on Sunday. Marquez Valdes-Scantling would be a flexible receiver, but you can not start it if Allison or Cobb have a chance to play.
The other impact of this game in prime time is the effect that a nightmare crowd in Lambeau could have on C.J. Beathard and the Packers' defense. It's one of the best streaming defenses of the week. Alfred Morris and George Kittle are the only 49 players I would consider starting.
So who should you sit down and start? And what shocking QB could you win in week 6? Now head over to SportsLine for the Fantasy Football ranking for each position and see what QB shocked in the top 10 this week, all from the model that beat the experts in strength last season.
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