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Aids to President Trump are trying to keep the conflict in Syria off the agenda when Trump meets Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, said a senior administration official at the Daily Beast.
This is an increasingly unlikely proposition. On Friday in London, Trump told reporters that he planned to evoke Syria with Putin during a face-to-face meeting Monday, supposedly without help, without mediation.
What Frightens Some US Officials, Syrian Activists and Many Middle East Analysts believe that Trump, who thinks that "someday, maybe, will become a friend," will finally accede to the insistence of the Russia on the United States leaving Syria – what Trump has recently expressed his eagerness to do.
This would leave the blood-thirsty Russian customer Bashar Assad without any obstacle to a final victory in perhaps the most ruthless conflict of this young 21st century.
The White House declined to comment According to the senior administration official, who was not allowed to discuss internal proceedings with a reporter, no agreement is being made, and the United States foreign policy apparatus is not preparing any. But that does not mean that Trump, who sees himself as the only relevant person in the US foreign policy apparatus, will not follow Putin's vows.
This concern comes from many assumptions and fears about how Putin could play Trump.
What will POTUS say to Putin about his commitment to NATO, given the disdainful manner in which the president hailed his allies at last week's summit in Brussels? Trump finally made expressions of pro-forma support, but shredded trust and confidence essential to a working alliance.
A former Assistant Secretary of Defense warned that Putin may seek to suspend NATO military exercises in the Baltic countries by Trump, as Kim Jong Un of North Korea asked him to suspend his exercises military in South Korea. He claims to have supported Ukraine in his fight against Russian aggression, but reportedly told the G7 leaders in Canada last month that Putin had seized and annexed the Crimean peninsula because people spoke Russian, this which implied that the appropriation of land was justified.
After Friday's indictments of 12 Russian military officers whose names and roles subverted the 2016 US elections were detailed by special advocate Robert Mueller, it is unclear what sort Trump's explanation will require Putin. Trump said Friday that he would again ask Putin "the question" of Russia's interference – implying, even after hearing about pending indictments, that this remains an open question.
NSC officials will not say whether Trump will insist that Putin extradite the officers, the other 13 Russians Mueller, for participating in the social media manipulation company known as the Internet Research Association. .
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You are now subscribed to the Daily Digest and Cheat Sheet. On Saturday, Trump's tweets suggest that the public will continue to create clouds of distrust and doubts about Russia's actions, again referring to a "deep state". The FBI plot against his presidency, and suggesting that the whole issue of Russian electoral interference was the fault of his predecessor, President Barack Obama.
Ned Price, a CIA veteran and former NSC spokesman, warned last week. Trump and Putin may shoot in Helsinki would be "a pledge of mutual non-interference in each other's political systems."
"Putin would definitely market a non-interference pact as a win-win," Price wrote on the NBC. Website of news. "Trump – who has endured harsh criticism for failing to confront Putin's attack on our democracy – could emerge from the summit by shouting out to the masses that Russia will never again meddle in our elections."
This would be a little dissuasive. The secret operations of Putin. But that would relieve Putin of US diplomacy in favor of democracy, human rights, press freedom and the rule of law – while betraying those who sought the help of states -United. Syrians whom the Americans have encouraged to fight and die in the war to defeat the so-called Islamic State, but who now fear that they are left at the mercy of Assad and Putin.
Although Syria has largely disappeared Washington's conversation since Trump threatened to withdraw in March, Syria's overlapping wars have failed. A heavy US force of about 2,000 people remains in northeastern Syria, alongside a heavily Kurdish Kurdish attorney – a major irritant to the Turks, who have moved closer to the approach Russian conflict after first asking for the ousting of Assad
The US-Kurdish relationship, which provides the US military with bases and airfields for operations and replenishment , is supposed to focus on the final stage operations against a remnant of the Islamic State – and, more nebulously, prevent a resurgence of the IS. .
In elements of the administration that oppose the rapid withdrawal of the United States, inertia is considered a success. As the Wall Street Journal recently noted, despite April White House predictions that there would be a quick exit from Syria, US military officials have stopped providing deadlines for completion. of the mission. Preventing Trump from acquiescing to Putin's Assad victory means that the United States will not let its Kurdish allies on their fate, no matter what, and that they nominally maintain pressure on ISIS – although no one within the administration or the military has defined a point where it can be said that the American war against the Islamic State comes to an end.
Within the administration, frustration abounds. Trump is frustrated by the continued presence of US forces in a conflict that he seems to consider over. Others are frustrated by the freezing of White House resources, including hundreds of millions of dollars for post-ISIS recovery efforts, functionally starving what is becoming a zombie mission.
Administration officials are becoming more and more creative, collecting $ 900 million of anti-ISIS coalition members in recent weeks, said the official, a situation described as "joke" by United States. The point of inertia, from the point of view of this official, is to avoid "the worst possible results" in Syria. And although the official does not see any agreement with Putin, the Syrians see one more and more likely when Trump is in Helsinki
"I think he does not like Syria," said Raed Fares, Syrian pro-democracy activist. when he was questioned by The Daily Beast he feared that Trump would give up control of Syria to Russia. "I'm sure he'll do it."
Fares said that Trump has a myopic focus on Iran as the root of terrorism, but that while he withdraws US troops and yields northern Syria to the regime, the result would be long .. Chaos, with al-Qaeda linked groups and dormant ISIS cells that reappear to control the territory.
Fares visits Washington, DC, trying to convince the State Department to resume the annual payment of a million dollars and dozens of civic centers that support women and adolescents in the province of 39; Idlib. "It will take a year to find funds … we could disappear by then," he told reporters from the Middle East Institute
"I think the president really wants to ravage Syria," he said. said Daniel Serwer. Director of Conflict Management at Johns Hopkins-SAIS. "He has already cut the insurgents in the south, he said that he wanted to leave the east, I do not think he is inclined to stay in Syria."
Serwer predicts that this would put an end to international efforts to reach a peace agreement
"There will be no UN political settlement if the United States withdraws. a victory for Assad with Russia and Iran taking advantage of all the fruits that there are, "said Serwer at The Daily Beast
adding that Russia and the United Iran could end up managing a "quagmire". include a massive reconstruction bill and the likelihood that Syria will not be stabilized, that extremists will come back and even less extreme insurgents will come back. I think it's very difficult for Russia, Iran and Assad to win in a long-term perspective. "
Serwer doubts Russia would put pressure on Assad to repel Iranian advisers or Shia militias they've trained and built." I do not think Russia can or even would. I think Russia's main concern is to stay in Syria, and that now depends 100% on Bashar Assad. The idea that they would do anything to Assad that would make him fend off the Iranians, I think it's a bridge too far. "
" Iranians are not going anywhere. They like this success, "he said.
But for Trump, who has justified his frequent praise for Putin as part of a plan to fight terrorists together, it will be tempting to declare victory and to show how Moscow and Washington can cooperate, and the fact that its collaborators who envision a longer-term vision can prevent this from happening will remain an open question at least until the end of the summit in Helsinki.
Additional report by Kimberly Dozier
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