Fertility rates cut in half since 1950 – the earth's population is still growing



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The total fertility rate – or the average number of children in the world will have risen to more than one year – from 4.7 live births in 1950 to 2.4 in 2017.

Meanwhile, the total population has nearly tripled since 1950, from 2.6 billion people to 7.6 billion, the report says. An average of nearly 84 million people has been added to the Earth's population every year since 1985.

Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Toronto, said, "As women have gotten more educated and participated in these services, University of Washington. "And it comes down faster in younger women."

Other factors have been shown to predict fertility rates, including better infant survival rates and later marriage.

"The age at which women are getting married is increasing," said Dr. James Kiarie, coordinator for the World Health Organization's Human Reproduction Team in the Department of Reproductive Health and Research.

"Said Kiarie, who is not an author on the new report.

While total fertility rates fell among all the countries, they were split roughly, said Murray. "Replacement" describes the total fertility rate, "which comes out to 2.05 live births, the authors say.

For example, a woman in Cyprus had a child on average in 2017, while a woman in Niger had 7.1. This range is lower than 1950's, in which total fertility rates ranged from 1.7 live births in Andorra to 8.9 in Jordan.

"The world is really divided into two groups," Murray said. "In a generation, the issue is not going to be about population growth."

In countries that want to boost fertility rates, the creation of financial incentives for families, including parental leave, has been shown to have a small effect, Murray said. Only 33 countries, mostly in Europe, were falling in population between 2010 and 2017, according to the report.

"The country that is probably most concerned about China, where the number of workers is now starting to decline, and that has an immediate effect on economic growth potential," Murray said. "In a place like India – that is still above replacement to a fertility replacement – that's just such a dramatic change."

That does not mean the global population will soon reverse race. A United Nations report last year predicted that the world population would swell to 9.8 billion by 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. That report forecasts that the half of the expected growth between 2017 and 2050 is likely to occur in Africa.
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In just the past several years, Kiarie said, shares of Africa and Asia have reduced fertility rates. The countries that have seen the sharpest declines are those that had previously been introduced into the world of contraception, he added.

"There's been rapid progress, but I think in terms of the areas that have the biggest unmet need for family planning, it's still largely in Africa," he said.

Thursday's report goes alongside six others, funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, on the global burden of disease. The findings include a rising prevalence of obesity in nearly every nation, and rates of mortality in some countries, and a high burden of non-communicable diseases, contributing to nearly three-quarters of deaths worldwide. blood sugar, blood pressure, body-mass index and smoking.

Lifespans also grew on average since 1950, climbing from 48.1 to 70.5 years for men and from 52.9 to 75.6 years for women, according to the study. However, the study authors say that they are living in better health.

An editorial published by The Lancet points out that the world is falling behind the United Nations' global health goals in some way, and the study should be an electric shock, galvanizing national governments and international agencies not only to redouble their efforts avoid the imminent loss of hard-won gains.

When it comes to fertility rates, Kiarie said, "The goals are about the ability for children, they want," with whomever they choose. "What is key to being able to be, in the women's hands."

Kiarie said, is the focus on individual people, their desires and how countries can empower them to achieve those goals.

"How can we make sure people do what they think is right for themselves?" he asked.

CNN's Yemisi Adegoke contributed to this report.

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