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A changing attack strategy
In Iraq and Syria, even with its territory greatly diminished, the Islamic State persisted. A few months after Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared "final victory" over the group in 2017, three Iraqi provinces saw an increase in attacks.
Yet the violence there is less devastating than in the past. The group has already hit Baghdad with attacks that could kill more than 150 people at a time. Now he tends to carry out suicide bombings, attacks, ambushes and targeted executions, especially village leaders known as moktars.
Mr. Knights, who is following these small-scale killings, estimates that more than three moktars are killed or wounded each week in Iraq, which undermines official statements that militants have been defeated.
"This means that 14 times a month, the most important person in the village is killed or seriously injured by the Islamic State," he said. "In these circumstances, do these people feel like they have been released? Eliminating this type of targeted violence is the real challenge, and it's much more difficult than cleansing ISIS fighters' cities. "
In all the cleared areas, members of the Islamic State have resurfaced in the population. They move and hide in cells made up of a handful of fighters and occupy a network of refuges, according to analysts. In Syria, some believe that these fighters await the departure of US forces before attempting a rebound.
If they do, they will be a different kind of threat.
The forces that drove the Islamic State out of its lands were equipped to liberate the occupied cities and not fight a dispersed clandestine force. Their vehicles and weapons were designed to engage the enemy at the front during intense combat, not to eliminate individual fighters on the run.
"It has returned to a much faster insurgent movement as security forces can evolve into a counterinsurgency," Knights said.
