First big winter storm for Lower Michigan, but for which regions?

It really seems that the first generalized winter storm will cross Michigan Sunday night to Monday. The big question is which way will it take? The path determines who shovels four inches or more of heavy and wet snow.

To understand the trajectory of an impending storm, we examine models of weather calculators. Two models are preferred to predict the trajectories of the storms a few days in advance. This is usually a battle for which the model turns out with a better prediction.

And that's the scenario with this coming storm.

Two totally different meteorological models are provided by the American model called GFS and the European model. You may be wondering why Europe cares about the American weather. Do not forget that these are global models that predict more than 10 days in the future. The storm hitting Michigan will now be in Europe in five days.

In the picture above, I have drawn the place where the thickest layer of snow is provided by both models. The American model (called GFS) takes the center of the storm across central Michigan. The thick snow band is in the colder air of the northwestern half of Lower Michigan. This is the model used by the National Meteorological Service for setting up storm watches.

The European model has a totally different idea. It takes the center of the storm further south, placing the broad band of snow on the southern half of the lower Michigan.

Both weather models have similar schedules at the beginning and end of the storm and amounts in the thick part of the snow.

But the big difference is the placement of thick snow. This is the difference between rain that turns into snow or a total snowstorm.

Which model will be correct?

The European model is generally more precise, but the American model seems to offer the most plausible solution. We are going to be in the 40s in Lower Michigan today and Sunday. So, for the European model to be correct and move to the south, cold air should enter before the storm. It seems difficult to bring in cold air before the storm.

The National Weather Service is leaning toward the US solution to a snow storm in the northern Lower Lower.

This will be a great example to see which model works best for early winter. If the Europeans manage to cross and we eventually have the snowstorm in the south, this will suggest another winter of the higher performance of the European model.

In the next 24 hours, we'll see the trend and I'll let you know. Another scenario is that the end result lies somewhere between the two current forecasts.

Whatever happens, we must realize that we are really in a winter configuration.