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WASHINGTON – The federal government's new national climate assessment is more than just a warning about the current and future effects of global warming in the United States. It is also the most detailed guide on all the ways in which the country will have to adapt.
Even as countries around the world act together and rapidly reduce fossil fuel emissions, the United States will have to spend billions of dollars to harden the coastlines, rebuild sewer systems, and reform farming practices to protect itself against floods, forest fires and heat waves that are already wreaking havoc across the country. And as emissions increase, the task becomes difficult and expensive.
The United States is unprepared. The report notes that in the Midwest, only four counties and cities have plans to fight climate change. This is in a region where scientists are predicting larger crop losses and larger floods that could paralyze transportation networks. And at the federal level, the Trump administration is reviewing its policies to account for future sea-level rise in the construction of new roads and railways.
Below, five main steps: A scientific report indicates that the country will have to take in the coming decades:
1. Rethinking our agriculture
The country's food supply could be compromised by intensifying global warming, according to the report. Maize, wheat, and soybean yields tend to decrease as the number of extremely hot days increases. More frequent droughts could reduce irrigation water supplies. Dairy cows produce less milk in sweltering heat.
Farmers will have to rethink their practices in response.
In areas at risk of drought, they could use more precise irrigation techniques to conserve water. Agricultural regions could create new meteorological networks that provide more detailed climate forecasts to help farmers make better decisions about which crops to plant and when. In places like the Great Plains, dairy farmers and ranchers may need to relocate their production or invest in air-conditioned buildings to protect their livestock from heat stress.
But the report emphasizes that "these approaches have limits to the serious impacts of climate change".
One of the hopes is that seed companies can develop new crop varieties that are better able to tolerate drought, heat waves and pests. However, the report warns that "progress in this area has been modest" and calls for a much larger public investment.
2. Build for the future, not the past
Much of the country's infrastructure, including roads and sewers, has been constructed taking into account historical weather conditions. But as extreme weather events become more common, the report says, the past is no longer a good guide for the future.
In Hampton Roads, Virginia, almost half of the residents said they did not have the opportunity to leave their neighborhood in the last year because of high tide flooding due to the elevation In the northeast, sewer systems built for past storms are expected to overflow more frequently as climate change leads to more precipitation.
"It's still not a common practice for engineers to think about the future climate," said Costa Samaras, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. While a few cities, such as New York and Baltimore, have begun using climate forecasts in their infrastructure planning, he said "it's not as widespread as it should be."
3. Retreat of the ribs
Depending on how quickly emissions increase, the global sea level According to the report, it is likely that the number of homes and coastal businesses in the United States may be overwhelmed by billions of dollars.
Big cities like New York and Boston are likely to invest heavily in dikes, tidal barriers and pumping stations, but they will not be able to protect everyone. In places like Norfolk, Virginia, authorities are already considering moving some vulnerable neighborhoods.
In the end, warns the report, millions of people across the country may have to move away from the coast. Yet most decision makers are reluctant to even talk about it. Many local governments, in search of larger tax revenues, continue to promote development along the coastline. And a host of federal policies, such as subsidized flood insurance and community rebuilding efforts in place after disasters, still deter people from moving away from risky areas.
Katherine Greig, senior scientist at the Wharton Risk Center and co-author of the chapter of the report on adaptation, said that "we still have a long way to go before we have a serious retirement conversation."
4. Engage nature to help
Climate adaptation is not simply a matter of redesigning roads or power plants to be more resilient to extreme weather conditions. The report also details the means by which our natural environment, if properly managed, can be a cost-effective defense against climate change.
Planting more trees in cities can help reduce urban temperatures and protect people from deadly heat waves. Restoring wetlands and degraded marshes can protect cities and coastlines from flooding and improve water quality. Healthy forests that are allowed to burn at low altitudes periodically, as they did in the distant past, are less prone to extreme wildfires. The protection of pollinators could help make our agricultural system more resilient.
An example from the report: Several Midwestern cities, including Milwaukee, have launched a massive effort to restore water courses to their natural state, removing concrete coverings in order to be able to evacuate more water safely during heavy storms.
5. Expect the unexpected
The authors continue to warn that global warming will likely lead to unpredictable risks, especially as complex systems such as energy, water, transportation and public health are simultaneously under intense stress.
As an example, Hurricane Harvey Texas last year ended up shutting down gasoline refineries, spoiling hospitals, clogging roads and spreading toxins and pathogens when the flood waters flooded the city. These kinds of cascading failures are hard to study and predict in advance.
In general, the report warns that officials at all levels of government and in all sectors of the economy will need to integrate climate change into their decisions, anticipate a wide range of possible futures, and continually reassess these plans. . "Adaptation involves a continuous process of risk management," notes the report. "There is no end point."
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