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But the increase in wind shear over the open Atlantic – the storm is more than 1,600 miles from the east coast – has weakened Florence into a tropical storm, with 65 mph winds starting at 5:00 am Friday.
The wind shear will decrease over the weekend and Florence is expected to return to a significant cyclone intensity (category 3 or higher) early next week, as the storm moves northwest and approaches the coast. US.
It is too early to tell whether the storm will wreak havoc somewhere on the East Coast or whether it will return to the sea safely.
However, there are disturbing signs in the major computer models that meteorologists use to predict hurricane trajectories a week or more in advance.
European and American models have shifted to the west, consistently showing a threatening hurricane dangerously close to the east coast.
Among the forecasting tools, meteorologists have dozens of different models and versions of the forecast tracks, and the majority of them show that the center of Florence remains at sea, but most of them follow it enough to have an impact on the weather. next week.
Florence is expected to head south from Bermuda early next week but will be close enough to bring high winds and dangerous surf conditions. The big waves will also begin to affect the southeast coast of the United States, with larger waves and surface waves starting this weekend, increasing until next week.
The trajectory of Florence will depend on the development and circulation of many weather systems while the storm is headed by a large pressure ridge in the eastern United States and the North Atlantic as well as by the progression from one trough across the country.
But the people of the east coast can be reassured by one thing: more than 75 storms occurred within 200 miles of Florence's current location in the Atlantic since hurricanes began in the 1850s.
CNN meteorologist Judson Jones contributed to this report.
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