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American simulation model (GFS) of Florence during the night Tuesday. (VentuSky.com)
The mighty Florence took a shot on Thursday, but her life as a big hurricane is probably not over yet, and the residents of the East Coast are out of breath.
The tropical storm is expected to turn into a Category 3 hurricane by Monday and the chances have increased that it will have direct effects on the East Coast between Wednesday and Friday next week, between Florida and southern New England .
Friday at 11 am, tropical storm Florence was concentrated about 1800 miles east of Miami and heading west at 8 mph. The winds are constantly at 65 mph. "The weakening of Florence seems to have stopped," said the National Hurricane Center. written in his opinion.
Florence sank on Thursday when she entered the subtropical jet stream. The strong wind shear disrupted the thunderstorms at its core and caused the prevailing winds to fall from 130 to 70 mph in just 30 hours.
So how could this be bad for the East Coast? The weakening pushed the storm towards the &; a 39 west to the United States. The weaker storms are directed by different layers of the atmosphere rather than by stronger storms. A weak storm is more directed by low to medium altitude winds in the atmosphere, while a strong storm can be driven by winds at higher altitudes. As soon as Florence's structure collapsed on Thursday, it turned to the west with the low-level trade winds.
Chances have increased that the storm is struggling to find a northern escape route as it approaches the east coast, although a direct hit is not inevitable. It is still possible that the storm will slow down as it approaches the United States and meanders offshore before returning to sea. But this is not a great chance.
[Explainer: Florence’s final destination depends on many different players]
About 70% of the 70 simulations of the US modeling systems (blue lines in the graph below) and European simulations (red lines in the graph below) predict the storm to land along the east coast.
Group of simulations of American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Thursday evening. Each strand of color represents a different model simulation with slight changes in the initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered where the forecast trajectory is the safest, but they diverge when the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line represents the average of all European model simulations, while blue represents the average of all US model simulations. The finer bold line is the main or operational simulation of each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
The primary simulation of the European model has demonstrated remarkable consistency with a hurricane landing in the Mid-Atlantic in the past five works, goes back to Tuesday night.
Significantly, the average trajectory of simulations of the American model, which had suggested that the storm was most likely to remain well above the sea, tended to move closer to the coast over time. The simulation of the average European model shifted its trajectory from the Atlantic coast to the coast. In short, both models are increasingly threatening.
The average simulations of American and European models have shifted to the west, closer to the coast or inland, with time. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Assuming the storm comes ashore, it's still too early to know exactly where. The European model has favored the Atlantic, but small changes in the trajectory of the storm could place the southeast or northeast coasts in the line of fire.
Due to uncertainty about the final destination of the storm, it is too early to discuss the dangers it will cause, where and when. But it is likely that some coastal areas will face a threat of damaging wind, flood rains and a large storm surge – which is an increase in ocean water over normally dry land. Some areas further inland may also face destructive winds and flood rains.
Even if Florence avoids a direct hit on the east coast, she will probably be very close, which will lead to dangerous waves, erosion of beaches and the possibility of coastal flooding.
Despite a weakening Wednesday, Florence has already begun to rebound while the wind shear relaxes. Starting Saturday, Florence will cross the warmest ocean since its formation eight days ago, fueling hurricanes.
An abnormally hot pool of water over the western Atlantic will provide enough fuel for another round of intensification. Next Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center predicts that Florence will be on the brink of Category 4 intensity with sustained winds of 130 km / h.
The Florence forecast trail is superimposed on a map of the current sea surface temperature. (UW / CIMSS)
If Florence hits or gets closer to the East Coast, it would be a first for a storm at this location. No tropical storm or hurricane approached the United States when it was near the Florence position.
But the unusually strong system of high pressure that should park north of the storm seems to have the potential to push Florence onto an unprecedented and potentially dangerous trajectory.
The time has come to start thinking about hurricane preparedness if you live near the coast.
Do you have a plan if the storm is targeting your area? Do you know where you would go if evacuations are needed? Do you have an emergency kit containing at least three days of essential supplies? Do you have trees that could fall on your house during a windstorm? Cut them now. Dlutter drains and gutters.
[What to put in your emergency disaster supply kit]
Other disturbances are observed in the tropical Atlantic
Elsewhere, two tropical waves in the Far East Atlantic are likely to become a tropical storm or hurricane. The most westerly wave is the one that watches most closely, as the models maintain it at low latitudes, potentially reaching the Lesser Antilles by Thursday. If these disturbances become tropical storms, they will call themselves Helen and Isaac.
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