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For several months, the campaign 2018, rightly, focuses on control of the House. All parameters continue to reflect a mid-term election during which Democrats could take control of this chamber. But for the drama and unpredictability, the contest for Senate control could be the place to look.
The House is not a slam-dunk for the Democrats, but most Republicans after the campaigns are really worried and are probably right to be it. The overall environment is difficult for the GOP because of President Trump and the location of competitive races. suburban areas as an example. There are so many seats at risk for Republicans (and very few Democratic seats in the same danger) that Democrats have several ways to pick up the 23 they need to return the room.
The Senate is and has always been a different story. There, the prospects of Democrats are much more difficult, largely because of the two great structural differences with the battle for the House. If the terrain that will determine the control of the House more generally reflects the size of the country, the campaign for the Senate is largely in the heart of the Trump country.
Republicans defend only nine of the 35 Senate seats in November. They must play much less defense than the Democrats. Second, many of the most competitive seats held by Democrats are in the states that Trump easily won in 2016: West Virginia by 42 points; North Dakota 36 points; Montana by 20 points; Indiana and Missouri, each of 19 points.
The range of possibilities in the Senate is not the same as in the House. No one wonders if the Democrats will get seats in the House in two months. The question is how many: some of the 23 that they need, some more than 23 or a lot more than 23. In the Senate, Republicans could, restrictively, lose control of the chamber or -seat majority .
The state of the races offers little definitive clues about what's coming. Almost everywhere you look the contests are tight. Florida presents one of the first and probably the most expensive senatorial races in the cycle, pitting outgoing Democrat Bill Nelson against Rick Scott, the time-limited Republican governor.
Florida is the state of perpetual swing: the purple monster of American politics. So maybe it's not surprising that things are close. (Trump won the state by one percentage point in 2016. Barack Obama won by three points in 2008, then at a time of his reelection in 2012. George W. Bush won by 537 contested votes in 2000 and then a landslide in the vernacular of the presidential results in Florida, a five-point win in 2004.)
A recent survey of Quinnipiac University shows that Nelson and Scott are tied at 49%, as are other relatively recent polls. Scott is used to this. In two elections for the governor, his victory margins were about one percentage point each time. Nelson won an easy reelection six years ago, double-digit, but those days are over.
Florida is not the only state where things seem tight. An NBC-Marist poll in Missouri shows Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill and Attorney General Josh Hawley, even at 47% each. In Tennessee, NBC-Marist shows a dead heat between former Democratic governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Rep Marsha Blackburn (48 percent for Bredesen, 46 percent for Blackburn). In Nevada, where there have not been many recent polls, Republican Senator Dean Heller and Democratic Representative Jacky Rosen are also seen as being in a race that is a virtual turmoil.
You had the idea. Almost everywhere you look, these contests could go both ways. There is no clear trend in many of these races, which means an autumn campaign in which strategists on both sides alternately dream of emerging with control of the room or sweating, leaving them in the minority. .
If Senate control boils down to one race per race, Republicans have a slight advantage. To win the majority, Democrats must protect the five incumbents in the redest states and win two of four competitions where Republicans occupy the seat. Each defeated player makes the final victory much more difficult.
At the moment, several Democrat incumbents are in danger, starting with Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who is challenged by Republican Representative Kevin Cramer. Heitkamp won his last race with only 50.5% of the vote. Republicans express more confidence in this contest than almost everyone else. Cook's political report lists them.
The Democrats of Missouri and Indiana, where Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly confronts Republican man Mike Braun, are not far behind in trouble. Republicans remember that they had little chance initially of defeating former Sen. Evan Bayh during his comeback attempt in 2016 and that they like their chances in this race. But some Republicans note that Donnelly is leading a smart campaign.
Senator Jon Tester of Montana and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia are two other Democrat nominees. Trump campaigned in their states to try to rally his constituents in November. But among the five Democrats in the most red states, these two countries are now appearing in a slightly better shape than their colleagues from North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida.
Holding these five seats would still mean that Democrats must overthrow two Republicans. Their prospects are the brightest in Nevada, Tennessee and Arizona, where Republican Martha McSally faces Democratic Representative Kyrsten Sinema for the seat of Republican Senator Jeff Flake.
None of these states is particularly easy for Democrats. At the presidential level, Nevada is a really purple state, with a perhaps blue trend due to demographic change. Democrats like to think that the same thing is happening in Arizona, but it has not made any noise yet. Tennessee, meanwhile, is moving in the other direction, more red and redder. This is not the same state as when Bredesen won the governorship.
Texas is the other state where the Democrats saw their prospects improve thanks to a campaign led by the Democratic representative Beto O'Rourke that caught the country's attention. O'Rourke avoids many of the conventions of modern politics, preferring his instinct to that of a consultant. He turned his challenge to Republican Senator Ted Cruz into a competitive contest, albeit in a state that remains conservative and predominantly Republican.
For example, State Card Management highlights the challenge to Democrats. They need almost perfect campaigns to offset the integrated benefits of the GOP. Given this view, it is not surprising that Republicans think they will eventually retain their majority in the Senate or even add one seat or more.
The question is whether there are more important forces at work that could make things happen to the Democrats, things that have less to do with the person who runs the best TV commercial or who knocks on the door or presents good debates.
"What holds me back at night is the possibility of the dominant force," said a Republican strategist Friday. "In 2014 and 2016, our party has benefited from an end-of-cycle move that has rocked almost every tight race. You might see something like this developing this fall – not a wave, just a change – that could reverse the races in the direction of the Democrats. "
Today, no one can say if that will be the case. But the very existence of a series of races as close as they are now and the possibility that they will continue over the next few weeks suggests that the campaign for the Senate deserves a lot of attention.
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