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Jockey Frankie Dettori sits on Enable, the very favorite of the money for the Breeders' Cup Turf. No winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe has ever won a Breeders' Cup race the same year. (Philippe Lopez / Getty Images)
Neil Greenberg
Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog
On Saturday, a full group of talented horses – including champion Accelerate, the last two Kentucky Oaks winners, Monomoy Girl and Abel Tasman, and the winner of the Arc de Triomphe – Enable Award – should be honored. face to win one of the richest scholarships in the world. races, which culminated in the classic Breeders' Cup Classic, worth $ 6 million.
In this race, however, favorites are not always a sure thing. For example, since the beginning of the classic in 1984, the favorites have won nine of 34 competitions (27%), a success rate that opens the door to a surprise. Plus, the average win on the classic winner is $ 26.67, the highest of all the Breeders' Cup races on the map.
[Breeders’ Cup 2018: Entries, analysis, odds and start times]
A good move to consider is the number 1 Thunder Snow, ranked 12-1 on the morning line.
Made famous for his refusal to run in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, he has since won many milestones on foreign lands, including the Dubai World Cup at $ 10 million in 5 in March, with his latest start up at the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes in Belmont in September. Threat in all races this year, Thunder Snow is 6-2-3-0 in 2018, his only out-of-the-table finish having been in the Juddmonte International Stakes due to a problem with equipment .
"He lost two shoes in the field race, but he came back well," said coach Saeed bin Suroor. "Take him back to Belmont in the Jockey Club. He ran a very big race and we are looking forward to Saturday in the Classic to see a good result from him. "
Ranking wins are important for a Breeders' horse's Cup, as is speed – both are on Thunder's resume. In addition, he has gained ground at a frantic pace in the Gold Cup Stakes Jockey Club established by Diverisfy and Mendelssohn, losing by the neck against Discreet Lover over.
Finley'sluckycharm (10-1), No. 11, sprint of the Breeders & # 39; Cup and Mare
This slightly run Twirling Candy girl – a four-time winner with a lifetime record of 11-7-1-1 – has herself won five rank wins, including two in 2018: The Grade I Madison at Keeneland and Grade II Honor Miss Handicap in Saratoga. The latter earned him a speed rating of 107 Brisnet, the second highest rank after Selcourt and Golden Mischief.
Highest Sprilly and Mare Sprint return speed of the Breeders & # 39; Cup 2018
His best time at Brisnet, 113, between the start and the second stop in Madison, is also among the best competitors this year.
No. 8 Bravazo (20-1), Dirt Mile Breeders' Cup
Hall of Fame coach D. Wayne Lukas saw his ball blow into five balls in a 59.8-second ball last Thursday, giving him his second ball since Oct. 17, a five-in-a-row effort. an apartment, sign of the form.
In addition, his record does not reflect how much he improved at the age of 3, with three of his last four races, all Grade I events, recording Brisnet speeds of 100 or higher. The only exception was seventh place in the Pennsylvania derby; however, his pace in this race was 109, his highest level this year.
"This horse has only improved the following [his sixth in] the [Kentucky] Derby," Lukas told reporters at Churchill Downs. "The last race was not too much, but this colt danced in all the dances and shows himself every time. You can not ask him more, but I would like us to have a little luck in his debut. "
No. 4 Robert Bruce (10-1), Breeders' Lawn Cup
The favorite of this race, Enable, is even money on the morning line although no winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe has ever won a race of the Breeders' Cup the same year (0 out of 8). hit the board first.
The son of Fast Company has won two US-rated holdings since joining Chad Brown's Barn, the Grade III Fort Marcy Stakes and the Grade I Arlington Million, and has just completed the second Grade I Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Square. at Belmont Park, where he finished 4½ behind Channel Maker.
The victory at Fort Marcy is the key to success: Robert Bruce has completed the last three-eighths of a mile in 32.8 seconds, a significant improvement in 12 seconds of a long lap produced by a majority of turf winners. Granted, you'd like to see it at today's class level or above, but the peloton in this race was not significantly weaker than those it had faced in all three Grade I trials ever since.
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