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Madness is upon us. The league landscape is about to change in ways that could cause the Warriors to look up from their phones and nod in a moment. Let's go back to the major questions
Where will LeBron go?
Reports from Adrian Wojnarowski, Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst of ESPN over the past 48 hours suggest some urgency among the Lakers to trade against Kawhi Leonard before the free agency as a way to squeeze LeBron. The Lakers looked at a similar situation a year ago with Paul George, chose to sit still and have to feel nerves by reading gossip – gossip that I would consider at least pretty credible – that George leans to stay in Oklahoma City [19659004]. Sources from several teams have confirmed the information that the Lakers tend to look for in the league looking for an additional first-round pick, stating that they would take an unwanted future salary to trap it – a fascinating twist Given the need to hoard the hat space. That alone indicates that the Lakers are at least a little worried, and interested in catching Leonard now. If the Lakers build a super-isthmus team, their own choices over the next three or four seasons will lose value; they are likely to fall in the 20's. Thus, the research of others
The subtext of these reports could be that the Lakers see themselves in a race against the clock with LeBron's deadline to adhere to his contract of $ 35.6 million with Cleveland at 11:59 pm Friday. If LeBron opts, his path to the Lakers becomes more complicated, with more varied competition. And as Windhorst has reported, everyone around this situation is under the impression that LeBron wants to make his decision quickly.
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ESPN's Zach and Kevin Arnovitz choose their five most intriguing free agency teams. In addition, they discuss LeBron, Paul George, the upcoming CAP boom in the summer of 2019, and so much more.
And if the teams could sign stars before the repechage? The Rockets have proposed a major upheaval of the NBA calendar
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To be clear, the opt-in option may still work for the Lakers. They would just have to trade for LeBron, which would deplete their commercial treasure chest of Leonard.
The mere perception that the Lakers are worried about this opt-in deadline is obviously good for the Spurs. They do not want to trade Leonard against the Lakers, but in the end, insiders bet on Gregg Popovich, a franchisee pragmatist, who will bite the ball and dance with the one who offers the most. (What the Spurs want for Leonard is a point of contention: they should go into full rebuilding mode, but they have told some teams at least that they would prefer to stay competitive, sources say.)
These opt-in deadlines are pivot points. The Clippers treated Austin Rivers for Marcin Gortat in part to tilt up with DeAndre Jordan (and perhaps the Mavericks, among his contenders) back in their favor. If Jordan withdraws from its $ 24 million contract for next season, LA has a starting center. If he opts, the cutters of a pencil strike regain some control over his fate. They would do well to keep even a disgruntled Jordan, and using Gortat as a backup, say the sources. If they exchange it, they can do it without worrying about acquiring a center.
Back to LeBron: I have never quite bought the idea that he absolutely needs a superstar partner in the bag to go to the Lakers. This would certainly help LA's case to have one before Friday night's opt-in deadline – all the more so that opting would open paths to Houston and almost anywhere. elsewhere LeBron imagines
But transactions do not stop in mid-July. A Lakers team with LeBron, attractive young players and cap flexibility would instantly become one of the league's most attractive destinations for free trade and agencies over the next 12 months. A second star could come in August, or anytime before the next season's deadline. A third star could come next summer. Sources have denied reports that LeBron texted Kevin Durant to join him in LA, but whether Durant signed a one-year contract this summer (or one plus one with player option in the year 2), you can bet your life savings Each desirable team will circle it all season. Durant's motives remain a mystery to everyone in the league.
This opt-in chicken game could go up to 23:59. Friday. Does the Lakers really believe that LeBron could opt for Cleveland and give Dan Gilbert at least some of his control? Does LeBron want to do L.A. believe it? Would he have dared to opt without an arranged trade?
Meanwhile, the Celtics and Sixers kicked the tires on Leonard, and both have the goods to outbid even the best LA offers – unless the Lakers go crazy. picks and two of their best young players. (They probably would not send Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball to San Antonio, although there are lingering questions around the league as to whether LeBron would like to play with the Lakers in the middle of the family's circus. Ball.A logical end point and a bargaining ground for Friday's deadline negotiations could be something like Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and two unprotected first-round picks.)
Boston and Philly have been cautious. They do not know about Leonard's current or long-term health, or they can trust Leonard's world and his advisers about his intentions next summer – if they even get it permission to have such a conversation. Both should have some faith in their culture and their lists, and in the fifth year they could offer Leonard next summer.
If LeBron opts on and watches the Lakers feel George and Leonard, how are things? unfold when he returns to Cleveland with no better option (other than maybe Philly) and asks for a new contract? Think of it from Gilbert's point of view. He could finally say that he had beaten LeBron in a negotiation. Would he dare to squeeze it, and ask LeBron to agree to an agreement without a no-trade clause? What a great theater. The Cavs in this scenario could sign and trade LeBron, but this route is more difficult than the opt-in-and-trade path.
Other teams want LeBron to evolve quickly. His choice will be reflected throughout the league. Think of the Raptors. Marc Stein of The New York Times has already reported that no one on Toronto's lineup could be had for the right price, and some teams say that Raptors' brain trust at least involved so much during calls on the night project. A rebuild arrives at some point for The North. But how could they feel comfortable igniting this process without first knowing if LeBron is leaving the East, and overcoming an unyielding obstacle to the Finals?
Yes, Philly and Boston will be better next season – maybe Toronto should not pay attention to LeBron's decision if someone offers the Raptors the motherlode for Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan. But it would be painful to blow up a team of 59 wins, then watch James Bolt. (Boston, for what it's worth, is very confident to be able to retain Kyrie Irving next summer despite persistent rumors that he might view it as one of the New York teams, according to sources from the league.)
What about Paul George?
George re-signing for the maximum would be one of Sam Presti's major wins as GM's of Oklahoma City – validation of the precise, development-oriented culture that he has built, and a giant risk in dealing for a star on an expiring contract with well publicized eyes for Los Angeles
The stakes are huge. If George re-signs, the Thunder have a two-star path to somewhere for at least another season or two. (There have been reports that George could sign a one-plus-one contract to reinstate the free agency next summer.) But by that time, George would have only nine years of service – a short to qualify for the maximum maximum possible. George wants to return to the free agency as soon as he will be eligible for this contract, a two-plus-one would be the most logical.The Thunder should and should offer full up to five years, since this fifth year It's easy to say that George would make that money on his next contract, but that guy broke his leg four years ago.)
When he leaves, the Thunder has Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, a group of role players, and limited cap flexibility in 2019 and beyond. We saw this movie in 2016-17, and it will become old, fast. It does not lead anywhere interesting. George's departure would at least raise the issue of the transition to complete rebuilding, disassembly that Thunder's fans have never really witnessed, and who would sniff out what Westbrook could bring back to the trade market.
Is it cold? Yes. Westbrook is the one who stayed. Losing all three of James Harden, Durant and Westbrook in the space of six or seven years – before one of them has spent their bonuses – would be depressing.
But his super-max carries huge risks on the back-end, and Presti is not a fool. It will not close any options.
That said, it is possible that Presti never finds a rich enough bid to move it. Even offers that look good – say, a completely theoretical Knicks offer from Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, and two unprotected first-round picks – could turn into pu-pu-platter of blah in two or three seasons. Westbrook guarantees competitiveness and pleasure.
If George returns, Thunder's payroll will reach $ 240 million, including luxury taxes. It would normalize in 2019-2020, after the expiry of Anthony 's hideous affair, and perhaps the possession deeper than Thunder' s thunder would make swallowing a bill of law. one year
. factory tax bill. This is an indulgence level Warriors and Cavs. It looks like something should give, only we do not know what. Anthony will only capitulate in a redemption. The abandonment through the stretching clause brings more relief, but the Thunder could feel embarrassed by embarrassing it like that
What's up? does the tightening of the hood mean
• The heritage of 2016 Half a dozen teams have access to a significant ceiling space, and three of them – Atlanta, Chicago and Sacramento – report that they plan to use it to take a bad paycheck and extract rough choices that the price, the sources say. (This is a particularly interesting and smart decision for the Kings, since they do not have their choice of 2019 and, as a result, have some incentive to compete. But they have no chance of winning. To be good, and should look at the lost choice If they chase players instead of dead money, I'd expect them to chase young free agents – including the restricted guys as Aaron Gordon, Jabari Parker, and perhaps Zach LaVine.)
The lack In theory, space transforms the exception of mid-level, a value of nearly $ 9 million a year, a powerful tool, but only a few teams have access to it. A very sad number of outlaw teams – Washington, Detroit, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Miami, New Orleans, Denver, Portland, maybe even Charlotte – are so close to the tax that they're "in the mix." they can not or should not • Do not use the full intermediate level and, in reality, you will only have access to the baby for the tax teams (about a value of about $ 5.5 million). Thanks, summer 2016 pic spike!
This is going to be the ceiling for a lot of good players who wish to change team. These players will be very, very disappointed. Some will start a free agency in the hope of a good multi-year contract, and will install a week or two for one-year contracts, in the hope of taking advantage of the market more favorable to players next summer. (Many players have already done this by exercising player options.) Teams will find bargains in mid-July.
Many midfield teams – the Knicks, Spurs, Grizzlies, maybe Magic and Jazz – should take advantage of this environment to sign up good players for longer-term deals. We tend to rent short-term offers as victories for teams. Think of Tyreke Evans last season, or the original $ 19 million deal from Atlanta for Paul Millsap in 2013. But as these contracts expire, we will all, "Man, would not he good to have this player on this salary for another year or two? "
Some teams are concerned that such agreements will compromise the future ceiling space. The Knicks, with big dreams of free agency in 2019 and 2020, seem to be such a team. But the league will again be (relatively) full of a cap in 2019 while other offers of the summer of 2016 will disappear. It will never be like 2016 for gamers, since more of them are flooding the market for next summer, but 2019 and 2020 will be much better than this summer.
For many teams, this means that their own ceiling space will not be as much of a competitive advantage. If they can now inculcate good players into longer term contracts, many of them should do it.
• Utah and Indiana are particularly interesting in this regard. Both want to improve, and Utah rightly thinks that it 's far from being really good. The Jazz must give up Derrick Favors and Dante Exum – and give up their unsecured business – to open a meaningful room, so that they can stay above the ceiling, retaining Favors (and Exum), and using the intermediate level.
It's unclear how much of a Favors market has gone beyond Utah and Dallas, and Mavs can pull themselves out of the big men's market even before Favors strikes. The teams in place should be able to retain strong veterans for multi-year deals by offering them a little more than the intermediate level of nearly $ 9 million.
• Another disadvantage of one-year offers from the team's point of view: de facto non-exchange clause due to odd rules regarding bird rights. The Celtics, for example, may feel uncomfortable about excessive spending on Marcus Smart – and fine with Smart taking his one year qualifying offer. But they need medium-sized contracts to match wages in the trades, and Smart on a multi-year contract is one of their only methods of acquisition.
• Most league leaders expect a fresh market for restricted free agents. them – including Smart – sign qualifying offers of one year and enter the free agency without restriction next summer. Dallas may have feared this when they withdrew the offer of qualification from Doug McDermott a few hours after they had done so.
Smart and Jusuf Nurkic seem to be the best candidates for this strategy. Nurkic has refused a long four-year extension in the fall, according to league sources, and may have trouble finding a team other than Portland who would be willing to offer more ways. Portland could try to keep it in the long run at a courtesy payoff just above that – say $ 11 or $ 12 million a year – and dare Nurkic to do better.
• Teams with restricted free agents – Orlando with Gordon, Chicago with LaVine, Milwaukee with Parker – figure to bring heavier bids. No reason to go out doors with a maximum offer. Remember: Parker and the Bucks stopped the extension negotiations in the fall when it became clear that Milwaukee's parameters were around $ 18 million over three seasons, sources said. ESPN. Some of these negotiations may take some time. The Houston dance with Clint Capela could be spicy
• The Pacers could force Orlando's hand with a $ 20-million tender sheet for Gordon, according to Wojnarowski, betting that Orlando could decline after selecting Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba at the back. drafts on the back. (Indiana can spend about $ 20 million, even with Thaddeus Young, Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic, Young has exercised his player option for next season, by Wojnarowski, Bogdanovic and Collison are mostly unofficial contracts. guaranteed.)
There has been slight discontent for years in Gordon's refusal of Magic to accept a smaller role in attack, and his ambitions to be a dominant star. But Gordon could become a secondary star of the Swiss army knife type. It would be an interesting game for the Pacers. If their bid sheet costs around $ 20 million, I would be willing to bet on the Magic to match, but that's not a bet I would feel confident about.
• It will be interesting to see how the dynamics of the market affect the other subset. extensions – those for the first-round picks of the 2015 draft class entering their four seasons. A few, including Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker, expect to receive early-level offers early, if not midnight on July 1st.
A note on the cities: It is not eligible for the super-max. 30 percent of the cap, even though he made an All-NBA team last season. He must do it again next season. The Wolves can write this eventuality in its extension, guaranteeing it the super-max if it qualifies.
If Towns qualifies, Minnesota could be on the hook for about $ 125 million in 2019-20 salary at only five guys: Towns, Jimmy Butler (probably on a new max deal), Jeff Teague ($ 19 million option) dollars for this season), Gorgui Dieng and Andrew Wiggins. This does not even include recent draft picks, or anyone that Wolves could sign for a two-year contract this summer.
This seems untenable. I would expect wolves to soon explore the Wiggins market, if they have not already started. To get rid of his salary, they may have to wait until next summer, when an unused cap-room team will be ready to take Wiggins into space – and send something nice in return.
The Wolves have explored the possibility of getting far enough under the ceiling – about $ 10 million – to extend Butler up to his maximum salary this summer, according to sources, but that would require dumping to both Wiggins and Dieng. Improbable
• The rest of the interesting guys eligible for the extension of this draft class could find a leaner initial market: Terry Rozier, Justise Winslow, Trey Lyles, Myles Turner, Stanley Johnson, Frank Kaminsky, Willie Cauley -Stein, Kelly Oubre, Delon Wright, and maybe some others. The teams will be hurrying early, hoping that these guys are watching good veterans sign for cheap and come back to the table at the end of July with lower expectations. At the same time, agents know that there will be more money in the system next summer, when these players could enter the restricted free agency. Finding a common ground can be difficult
Other notes on teams in fiscal hell
• Again, there is very few veterans for whom an extension can start at 120% their current salary, or 120 of the league's average salary, makes sense. Two of these types are in Milwaukee: Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton. I would expect the Bucks to hire Middelton, earning $ 13 million in the last secured year of his contract, and Middleton shut them down. If the Bucks are ready, Bledsoe – who earns $ 15 million – should think about it very seriously.
• If they miss the big stars, the Rockets might ask Eric Gordon for extension discussions once they are allowed to do so. in July, the sources say. I would still bet on Houston offering Chris Paul something less than his maximum of five years, especially given the tax benefit of living Texas.
• An extension for Tobias Harris at 120% of his salary of $ 14.8 million but anyway feels unlikely. The Clippers may hesitate to make as many sacrifices.
• Denver with Nikola Jokic on a new contract is expected to surpass by more than $ 10 million tax before reporting on Will Barton, whom they would like to sign again. Dumping both Kenneth Faried and Arthur Darrell would probably not open enough space for Barton ink and safely avoid the tax. Denver could also explore Mason Plumlee or Wilson Chandler.
They must be ready to tie their first round 2019, as they feverishly tried to trade during the draft to acquire another choice among teenagers after choosing Michael Porter Jr., sources said. (They wanted Zhaire Smith.)
• Denver's five-year contract for Jokic does not include any player options for Jokic's fifth year, according to sources. It's a five-year direct contract – something that Denver legitimately wanted to reject Jokic's cheapo 2018-19 option and give it an immediate raise.
• Keep an eye on Greg Monroe in New Orleans if the Pelicans stand firm on plans to offer DeMarcus Cousins a shorter, no-max contract – and somehow losing him. The famous "Sign-and-Trade" that sends Cousins to Washington is very complicated given the fiscal situations of both teams, and may require a third team – if Washington and Cousins are even interested.
• Another veteran candidate: Al-Farouq Aminu. But a 120 percent increase would leave it below the middle level, and so he probably rejects it. Portland should still offer, however.
• Several teams have called the Heat about Josh Richardson during the draft, but Miami has shown no interest in trading it despite their tax bill, sources say. Something must give here too.
• There is mutual interest between the Warriors and Jamal Crawford in a potential minimum agreement, sources said. He might want more than the minimum. It's unclear if the Warriors will use their mid-level mini-exception, but if they do, it probably will not be on Crawford.
Other notes on teams with flexibility
• T.J. McConnell is an interesting extension candidate. There has been little noise up here about a potential deal.
• The easiest call on the board: Phoenix acquires a playmaker, either in free agency (Fred VanVleet is a name to watch) or via the trade. The problem for Phoenix is that its best assets – Booker, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges – are untouchable, and their young big ones (Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss) have limited commercial value. Chriss was available on repechage night, by league sources.
A bigger fish would require Phoenix to slip Josh Jackson into a trade. It is the swing room, which the Suns love or not. He puts Kemba Walker in play. Is a team of Raptors under reconstruction saying no to Dudley, Tyson Chandler and Jackson for Kyle Lowry? (I doubt Phoenix does that, but it makes you think.) What about Mike Conley if the Grizz kills (and Conley is doing well)?
Phoenix has not shown any interest so far for Dennis Schroder, sources said. ] Enjoy the fun!
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