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ANN ARBOR, Mich. – Republican leaders increasingly fear that their Senate and governor candidates will be in political trouble in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and other party-winning states, and that likely to spread to the House of Representatives as the GOP must win in November to keep control of the room.
Their concerns also extend to states with democratic tendencies, such as California, Illinois and Virginia, where the most reputable Republicans have fallen far behind in the polls, allowing Democrats to devote millions dollars, but also to campaign and participation efforts. Chambers districts highly disputed in the hope of dropping GOP holders
The Republican troubles in these states reflect a convergence of factors: outgoing governors with baggage and nominated candidates with limited charisma and appeal; Democratic benefits in fundraising and the key issue of health care; the intensity of voters fueled by the opposition to President Trump; and a rival list of Democratic candidates, particularly for the governor, who are closing the fall race in a strong position.
With polls showing top Democratic candidates leading in these states, favorable conditions are important for the party, considering the Republican advantage topping the list in cities like Arizona, Maryland and the United States. Massachusetts and their high chances of winning Senate seats held by Democrats Missouri and North Dakota, which could allow them to retain or even increase their majority in the Senate.
Republicans are also focusing on winning battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio, where their governorship candidates are running more evenly against Democrats. But even in Wisconsin, where Governor Scott Walker, the G.O.P. holder, is fighting for a third term, President Trump will appear Wednesday to try to strengthen the party's position, including his Senate candidate, Leah Vukmir.
"The Governor's races are at the top of the standings outside of the year to work like a big snow plow, setting the stage for the party offices below them," Republican strategist Mike Murphy said. . "If you have a weak snowplow, a lot less goes behind you"
As G.O.P. especially in the Midwest, which President Trump may consider to be the most crucial part of his base, Michigan is a prime example of a crucial political dynamic: While congressional control and the medium-term implications for Mr. Trump absorb attention, it is his Democratic forces at the top of the lists of states that could radically transform American politics after 2018.
In Michigan, which the president narrowly promised in 2016, the Democratic leadership candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, has become one of the sensations of the year this year after a run in a primary easier than expected and the establishment of an imposing general election. On Friday night, she campaigned in this college town with Senator Bernie Sanders to rally young voters – not because she needed help, but because the Michigan Democrats now think that it's a good thing. They could upset up to four seats in the House and win other races to release the Republicans take over power here.
A survey conducted by the New York Times Upshot and Siena College revealed that the Democratic candidate had a lead in one of these home runs, while another was actually tied.
With an overwhelming vote, Democrats could also overthrow the state legislature. to rebuild their seat with the politicians in the making; lock in congressional gains by canceling Republican-led gerrymandering; and adopt an initiative that will greatly facilitate voting by 2020 in a state that broke the hearts of democrats two years ago.
"I'm trying to get every democrat I can on the finish line," said Ms. Whitmer, noting that she included a catch for all of her housemates in her stump speech. . "I do not want anyone to think that in 18 days they will be able to vote for the governorship and that their work will be over."
Ms. Whitmer is confronted by Bill Schuette, state attorney general, a Republican who has been weighed down by the outgoing unpopular governor of his party, Rick Snyder. Mr. Snyder explicitly declined to approve his candidacy for a position of G.O.P. successor
Beyond Michigan, a backlash from the Democrats could dramatically boost their efforts to win the House, but also boost their chances in a number of legislative legislative challenges that, combined with the Governors' race, could consolidate their efforts. earnings for a month. decade after the next redistricting cycle.
"The governor, senator or senator, deserves the most attention and the most money, and most voters must vote," said Corry Bliss, who heads the House's super republican, PAC, and is deeply concerned about dragging on his candidates in states like Illinois and Michigan. "So, if you're at the bottom of the ticket and the top loses two digits, it's very hard to catch up."
Democrats are increasingly optimistic that the hardships of Republican candidates will spoil fundraisers and demoralize conservatives in critical states such as Pennsylvania and California, undermining participation efforts at the right when 39, an election at several competitions in the House in these states.
"When the poll does not lead to a presidential race, energy at the top of the list is important for everyone," said Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, a Democrat who is expected to win easily next month, as well as the party of his party. nominated governor, representing Tim Walz.
With the win at hand – many of these Democrats have polls that exceed the margin of error – candidates are sharing more time and money with candidates in the House and other downballots candidates for make the most of what appears to be their best mid-season campaign since 2006.
In Illinois, JB Pritzker, the billionaire heir to the Hyatt hotel, who heads Governor Bruce Rauner, the Republican party's outgoing president, has spent $ 20 million for a field effort that has already allowed to reduce the anticipated turnout contested House Districts. In Virginia, Senator Tim Kaine, who is about to stand for re-election, has already held more than 50 protests with candidates in the state House of Representatives and is sending a letter outlining Kaine and his Democratic comrades.
And in California, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom, who is expected in his run for governorship, focused his efforts on the nine most competitive elections in the House and plans to return to a group of historically Republican districts of Orange County for a bus tour in the latter part of the campaign.
"This is not a traditional place where Democrats usually end their campaigns," said Newsom, but "Orange is the new blue."
Even in states where Republican candidates for governorship are competitive, lower-ball Democrats still see the benefits of the left's growing enthusiasm this year.
In Georgia and Florida, Democrats in the House believe that the appointment of Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum, African-American candidates for governorship, could increase voter turnout in a handful of Republican-controlled districts. and who have large black populations.
In Kansas, the controversial state secretary, Kris Kobach, could still win the governorship through a third-party candidate in the race. But his polarizing candidacy, as well as persistent anger towards former governor Sam Brownback, has endangered two Republican-owned House seats, according to The Times polls in the Upshot / Siena newspaper.
The difficulties faced by Georgia in Pennsylvania are even more glaring. In addition to appointing mediocre candidates who vote badly against Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob. Casey Jr., the party has also suffered a series of resignations and resignations from the House and must stand on a less favorable congressional card.
And because Democrat Senators like Mr. Casey, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin are facing easier reelections than expected, according to polls, they were released in order to collect funds for coordinated efforts of committees. and campaign with a variety of secret ballot candidates.
Indeed, the biggest problem this year for Republicans, especially in the industrial Midwest, is that in a series of states that Mr. Trump was swept away or almost won, the party failed to recruit leading candidates and left flag bearers who aligned themselves. with a president whose popularity has subsided with women and voters in the suburbs.
"The Trump effect in Republican primaries has produced Republican candidates who are not necessarily good candidates for the elections," said Ed Rendell, former Democratic governor of Pennsylvania.
There are some matches for Republican candidates this year. While Representative Beto O'Rourke electrified many Texas Democrats in his attempt to overthrow Senator Ted Cruz. National Republicans hope that Governor Greg Abbott's well-funded and organized campaign will help bring some of their vulnerable holders to the House to victory.
And in Utah, Mitt Romney, who is expected to win a seat in the Senate after a landslide, recorded an advertisement to help rescue the representative, Mia Love, who faces a daunting challenge.
Yet no state can see the same lasting political impact of a democratic rebound as Michigan.
Mr. Trump won with a margin of just over 10,000 votes, but his presidency, which has created divisions, is clearly fueling a negative reaction.
"I have the impression of living in a parallel universe, I can not believe that this country is ethically devalued," said Cathie Longan, an activist who telephoned Friday in an office outside the US. suburb of Detroit filled with flyers for the Democratic Party ticket and decorated with the banner "Hop On The Blue Wave".
"I woke up the day after the elections and actually shouted out loud," she said.
Women Dominate the Ranks of Michigan Democrats: In addition to Ms. Whitmer and Ms. Stabenow, candidates for the position of Attorney General and Secretary of State, the candidates occupy three of the four seats in the House and more than half of the legislative seats targeted are women. ()
"The perfect answer to Hillary who lost in 2016 is this 100% female ticket that comes back and shows that we are not OK With the way women are treated in this state, we do not agree with the how women are treated at the national level, "said Dana Nessel, the Attorney General's candidate.
Which also makes this year in Michigan as decisive two voting questions that should largely pass, in part because of Republican disarray.
Proposal Three would restore the vote of the right-wing party in Michigan, enact the no-fault vote and allow voters to register and vote on polling day, among other measures to facilitate voting. Broadening access to voters would be a boon to the presidential hopes of Democrats in 2020.
Proposal Two would create an independent redistricting commission that would deprive the legislature of redistribution.
"We would have at least two more seats in the House without gerrymandering," said Michigan representative Debbie Dingell, who expressed her surprise at the excitement of the move. "People see it as a way to get their government back."
And the Democrats here are seeing redemption this year, not only for the 2016 presidential defeat, but for the elections that brought the Republicans to power in Michigan and much of the country.
"Let's hope this is the end of the book until 2010," said Brandon Dillon, chairman of the state party. "In 2010, we had our ass kicked because of health care and an unpopular president. It would be very nice to see us come back and take back control of health care and an unpopular president. "
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