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Welcome to The Tip Sheet, a daily political analysis of the 2018 elections, based on interviews with Republican and Democrat leaders, pollsters, strategists and voters.
Where are things
• Do you think the 2018 campaign will be over after all Tuesday's ballots are counted? Think again.
Some Republican officials now believe the Georgian governor's race is set for a second round on Dec. 4, as neither Democrat Stacey Abrams nor Brian Kemp, the Republican, will likely win the majority of votes.
The race is this in their private polling station and while Mr. Kemp enjoys a slight advantage in the election of G.O.P. According to polls, the libertarian on the ballot, Ted Metz, could collect about 2% of the vote. (In Georgia, in 2014, as governor, the Libertarian candidate won 2.36% of the vote.)
This could prevent one or the other of the main candidates from reaching 50% on election day if the race remains neck and neck.
• The fury aroused by the new investigation of the office of the Democratic Party of Georgia by Mr. Kemp cast a curveball in the last days of this tight race.
• As election day approaches, Trump's councilors spent the weekend preparing the president for the Republican's losses this week and what that could mean for his agenda in the House.
• Two New York Times polls Upshot / Siena College ended Sunday night on the watch races we will watch on Tuesday – and they are close.
In Kentucky, polling stations will close at 6 pm Eastern, representative Andy Barr, a Republican, and Amy McGrath, the Democratic candidate, are tied at 44%.
In Virginia, where polls will close at 7 pm, Rep. Dave Brat's representative is ahead of Democrat Abigail Spanberger. The survey had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
• In the race for Rep. Steve King's candidacy for re-election in Iowa, a Times Upshot / Siena poll completed Sunday revealed that Mr. King had a 5-point lead over Democrat J.D. Scholten. The margin of sampling error, however, was plus or minus 5 points. Mr. King has generally chosen to be re-elected, but his story of racist remarks, a recent interview with a neo-Nazi-related publication, and the reproaches of a Republican leader have complicated his race.
Mr. Scholten's advisers tell us that they are preparing for a recount if the vote is extremely thin. They also cut a last digital advertisement with Scholten, saying the time was ripe for new leadership in both parties, calling for the replacement of Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan.
• Two months of Upshot / Siena College polls were completed on Sunday night – 96 polls in all, an extraordinary and fascinating venture. Check them all here. Thanks to Amanda Cox, Nate Cohn and our Upshot colleagues.
• On the Senate side, the Trafalgar group, a Republican company, has released a new poll on the Arizona Senate race that shows Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema slightly ahead of G.O.P. candidate, Martha McSally.
• For more details on the situation in the congressional campaign, our election prospects for the Senate are: here and for the house is here.
Trump's Monday
The president has three planned campaign rallies:
• 15 hours in Cleveland with Ohio Republican Republican candidate Mike DeWine.
• 18:30 in Fort Wayne, Indiana, with Republican Senate candidate in Indiana, Mike Braun.
• 10 hours to Cape Girardeau, Missouri, with Republican candidate in the Missouri Senate, Josh Hawley.
Back in New York, if Claudia Tenney is not the favorite member of the Trump Family Congress, she is at the top of the list. On Monday, Donald Trump Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle will host a rally for the North Republican state. He is the fourth member of his family to appear in Ms. Tenney's district in recent months, after President Trump, Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump.
Participation rate in Florida
About 30,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted early in Florida on Sunday afternoon, according to the statistics of the state.
• Ron DeSantis, Republican candidate for governorship, thinks this bodes well for him.
"I'd rather be me than him," he said of his Democratic opponent, Andrew Gillum. Sending to reporters in South Daytona, Florida, he also cited a "considerable reservoir of dedicated voters on polling day" for Republicans.
• Mr. Gillum sees things differently, telling reporters in Miami that he was "not at all" concerned.
"The difficult part is a look at Democrat vs. Republican leaving more than 800,000 independents and affiliates without a party," he said. "We think we are leading in this category and we do not believe that all the Republicans who voted will vote for Mr. DeSantis. We think we will have our fair share. "
Democrats at the door of Bob Hugin
Tom Malinowski is the Democratic candidate running against Rep. Leonard Lance in the seventh congressional district of New Jersey.
But his campaign volunteers are creating headaches for Republican candidate Bob Hugin.
One of Malinowski's volunteer organizers, Lacey Rzeszowski, lives in the same block as Mr. Hugin in Summit, New Jersey. During the two days of the week, his home was the seat of Mr. Malinowski's solicitation efforts in the city. Hundreds of people rushed to his lawn and back to the neighborhood to support Mr. Malinowski.
On Saturday, the turnout was so overwhelming that the police temporarily closed the block.
Mr. Malinowski announced the news to Mr. Hugin's opponent, Senator Bob Menendez, at a breakfast held on Sunday morning in Union County, noting that "the Senator Menendez would like this story. "
"We had 500 people coming to a house to solicit business," Malinowski said. "He closed the block. Here's the fun part: it was Bob Hugin's block. "
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