GOP turns to Trump to save a seat in the Tennessee Senate

Elections

"She has the values ​​of Tennessee," screamed Trump Monday night at a rally for rep Marsha Blackburn.

Donald Trump was surprised in eastern Tennessee Monday night to hold a rally and raise funds for Representative Marsha Blackburn. But his mission was broader: to prevent mass brewing in the state's open Senate race.

Just two years ago, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Tennessee, winning by 26 points. Today, Republicans are striving to avoid what would be a disastrous defeat in the battle for Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Senator GOP Senator Bob Corker – a loss that could threaten the majority overwhelming GOP. They are counting on the president to help Blackburn cross the finish line.

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Trump did his best to do this at the loud rally, where the participants applauded the president and chanted, "Martha! Martha!"

"She has the values ​​of Tennessee," Trump roared. "Voting for Marsha, it's really voting for me and all we stand for. It's a vote for "Make America Great Again".

Blackburn, speaking briefly to the crowd, praised Trump's "incredible 20 months" in power.

"I know the Democrats do not stop saying that there is going to be a blue wave," she added, "but let me tell you something:" Mr. President when this blue wave reaches the line of demarcation, it will collide with the great red wall. "

Yet Blackburn and the state republicans rely so much on Trump that the decisive race in the Senate could boil down to one question: how much is Trump?

"I think it's a vulnerable race in a very Republican state," said Tennessee long-time Republican strategist Tom Ingram. "I think Trump is still popular here. But it's a race to scale the state, not a district race. The dynamic changes a lot between a polarized district and an enlarged state. "

Monday's events mark the president's second visit to the state since spring. It's in addition to images of a Trump rally appearing in Blackburn TV commercials, his repeated assertions of President's approval and, in a recent 30-second spot, the use of Trump's own words to criticize the Democratic opponent Phil Bredesen.

Republicans predict tonight's rally will motivate a slow base that will be critical to Blackburn's victory this fall. Republican Party President Scott Golden expected his supporters to queue Monday night for Trump in Johnson City. The event took place in Washington County, in the heart of Trump territory, where the president was cleared in 2016, winning nearly 70% of the vote.

"When you have a president who does all he needs to see people, it really excites our people to get excited about what to do for the elections," said Mr. Golden. "For him, being here, personally, talking with people – 7, 8, 9000, no matter what it will become – in an arena setting, is electric."

Trump's visit could not have come at a better time for the GOP. Blackburn has fallen behind in recent polls. She runs into a wealthy former two-term governor, whose name is recognized throughout the state, and who is also popular among voters who are uncomfortable with Trump.

For months, the president himself monitored the Blackburn elections in the race, according to three White House associates and allies. Trump personally called her to offer her encouragement, tweeted messages of support on her behalf, and organized a rally in Nashville in the spring. The sources said the president was behind the deployment of Vice President Mike Pence last month in Knoxville, where he was running a $ 1,000 per person fundraiser in Blackburn.

Ad spending data shows that six Republican-aligned groups booked airtime for the Tennessee Senate race until November, after spending almost twice as many bookings as Democrats in the United States. during the last weeks.

America First, the leading Trump-aligned super-PAC, is keeping a close eye on the Tennessee race and wonders if it's necessary to help. Another super PAC, the President's Defense Committee, has conducted surveys and predictive modeling that shows that Blackburn is better positioned, based on a partisan breakdown of who will vote, said a group source at Politico.

But that depends on Republicans who want their electorate to go to the polls.

The catastrophic scenario where the seat of the Tennessee Senate falls into the hands of Democrats for the first time in nearly three decades is not lost for Republicans – from Trump. A victory in Tennessee would give the Democrats room to maneuver: even if one of their outgoing Senate members, in danger of disappearing, lost in November, they would still have a chance to win the Senate.

This is why both sides paid particular attention to voter turnout efforts. Garren Shipley, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, said that since 2012, the party had heavily invested in data.

"For Tennessee, that means armed campaigns with the most up-to-date information possible," Shipley said. "This is the toughest and most impressive ground game Tennessee has seen since the reign of the general [Robert] Neyland, "he added, referring to the legendary football coach from the University of Tennessee.

Mary Mancini, president of the Democratic Party of Tennessee, highlighted the main results of August, as the evidence is safe for Democrats.

Mancini said the primaries showed "an increase in participation in all areas", for Democrats. "We have flooded the field with candidates from county commissions, candidates to the House of States and the Senate. People were just excited to vote for a Democrat, "she said, noting that recruiting more Democrats to participate in local races is essential to motivate the party. across the state.

For example, of the 118 races in the House and Senate of the States, Democrats have candidates in 104 of them. "It's our best result in 20 years," she said.

Democrats argue that the GOP's heavy reliance on the Trump brand is a miscalculation. Republicans are betting all their resources on their base, they say, while the Democrats are using to expand theirs with a candidate who entices independents and Republicans to cross.

Bredesen claims an "A" rating with the NRA and recently opened a debate by announcing that he would not support Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

In one of Bredesen's commercials, he looks at the camera, swearing to stay with Trump when it suits him.

Trump challenged this promise Monday night, arguing that a vote for Bredesen was a vote for Schumer and the Democrats, who "will flood your streets with criminal aliens," will extend health care to unauthorized immigrants, "will completely abolish the application of immigration ", will block conservative judges, withhold spending on the army.

"He looks like a good guy," Trump said of Bredesen, linking the democrat to Nancy Pelosi and noting his financial support for Clinton and Barack Obama, "but what's the point? ? "

Citing tariffs that he says have hurt state manufacturing firms, he has made it clear that he will pull out of Trump if necessary and vote "with Tennessee" if necessary.

"This is the best candidate in Tennessee," said Chris Hayden, from left, Majority Forward, about Bredesen. "He showed that he had an independent tendency and that he was going to defend Tennessee first."

Majority Forward, a nonprofit group affiliated with the PAC Senate, has deployed $ 24 million in voter engagement efforts during major Senate races, primarily in the states of Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri and from Indiana.

Ingram said the Tennessee Republicans could not count on transferring Trump's popularity to Blackburn, noting that some who had tried to imitate Trump by going very far right had failed to connect to the voters. He referred to the state's GOP government primary, where, he said, the two most conservative Republican candidates and most aligned with the president finished second and third.

"There is only one asset," said Ingram. "And Trump voters are Trump voters. It is a mistake to consider that they are all ultra-conservative voters. They are angry, frustrated voters who feel left out. Some are very conservative, others are not. They are everywhere in Tennessee. I think putting all your eggs in Trump's basket in Tennessee is a little risky. "