Gypsies see blue "tsunami" in House as Senate road narrows

Democrats are more likely than ever to win back the majority in the 30-day House of the midterm elections, but have seen their narrow shots bring the Senate back to erosion following the controversy surrounding Brett's confirmation. Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court.

The Kavanaugh saga has dominated politics for a fortnight, stimulating supporters of both parties. While no one knows for sure how the next four weeks will unfold, the fight is likely to further harm Republicans with suburban voters considered essential in many districts in the House.

However, there are signs that the brawl around Kavanaugh's investiture has helped Republicans fill their gap in enthusiasm over the Democrats, who have so far stayed the course.

The Republican National Congress Committee recorded a 279% increase in donations during the first week of October compared to the same period in September. The group did not provide a dollar figure for transportation.

And a NPR / PBS NewsHour / Marist poll released on Wednesday showed Democrats dominated Republican voters' enthusiasm, up from 10 points in July.

"The Republican Party is doing three things: cutting taxes, killing terrorists and confirming judges," said Matt Gorman, spokesperson for N (NRCC), the GOP campaign arm at home.

"When we do that, we turn on our base and call on freelancers. We are about to face the voters after doing all three. "

This growing enthusiasm worries the Democrats. A few weeks ago, they had already seen a narrow path to retake the Senate, where Republicans hold a narrow majority of 51 to 49, but these prospects seem to be dwindling.

Voters dissatisfied with Kavanaugh's treatment seem to be heading for GOP Senate candidates in deep red states where President TrumpDonald John TrumpKavanaugh supporters drink beer to celebrate his confirmation. Chelsea Handler on Kavanaugh: "We're stronger than this bullshit" Kobach governor candidate connects 9/11 to immigration MORE is more popular, including North Dakota, Missouri, Tennessee and Texas.

Kavanaugh was confirmed in the Supreme Court on Saturday, ending senatorial days in the Senate after three women came forward to accuse the judge of sexual misconduct, though he strongly denied accusations.

The vote marks a vital victory for the Republicans, whose base rallied around Kavanaugh, finding that the judge had been the victim of a partisan defamation campaign.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellTrump, GOP aims to arm Kavanaugh's vote before Nov. McConnell: The GOP Senate "refused to be intimidated by the crowd". The winners and losers of the Supreme Court bout PLUS (R-Ky.) Saturday hailed Kavanaugh's confirmation as a major asset for Republican candidates in the Senate in mid-term.

For Republicans, the biggest boost will be a series of competitive Senate races, with Democrats expected to defend 10 seats in the states that Trump won in 2016, mostly in North Dakota, Indiana and Virginia -Occidentale.

In North Dakota, two recent polls showed Senator Heitkamp (D) lagging behind her competitor GOP, Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerThe Hill's Morning Report – A historic vote on Kavanaugh's approaching protests and anger, Heitkamp publishes an announcement explaining that Kavanaugh does not vote Optimist Republicans cancel ads in North Dakota MORE (N.D.), by margins of 10 and 12 points.

And although polls showed strong support for Kavanaugh in a state that President Trump had won by nearly 36 points, Heitkamp had voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation, saying that the Senate testimony of one of the accusers Kavanaugh, Christine Blasey Ford, had been a determining factor in her decision.

In Indiana, Sen. Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyTrump, GOP, wants to arm Kavanaugh vote before November The winners and losers of the Supreme Court are fighting McConnell: Kavanaugh wins "a shot at adrenaline" for his medium-term chances., another vulnerable democrat in a red state, also opposed the judge in the final confirmation vote in a state where the poll showed a close race.

A recent Fox News poll showed that Donnelly was ahead of Republican rival Mike Braun by just 2 points, which is in line with the poll's margin of error.

But another democrat vulnerable to the red state, Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump links Kavanaugh's confirmation to mid-term Trump elections, GOP aims to turn Kavanaugh's voting vote in November, Daines' son shares father's video watching Kavanaugh vote MORE (W.Va.), broke the ranks of the party when he voted in favor of Kavanaugh's confirmation in the Supreme Court, thereby mitigating the risk of GOP attacks during the latter part of his campaign. re-election against Republican Attorney General of West Virginia, Patrick Morrisey.

A GOP strategist told The Hill that private polls showed that the Kavanaugh investiture was at the top of the agenda, alongside employment and the economy, in Virginia. Western and North Dakota.

Meanwhile, Democrats see states of a deep red where they hoped for a narrow path now to escape.

In Texas, momentum seemed to be heading towards Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzCruz describes how to hide protesters in the Washington DC restaurant, Reid Wilson, says the Conservatives are digging the gap in the Texas Senate race where Rourke is not "interested" in the approval of Obama PLUS (R), who said he raised $ 12 million in the third quarter fundraiser of the year. And a recent Quinnipiac poll showed the senator 9 points ahead of his opponent, Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D).

In Tennessee, a Fox News poll revealed that Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnDem: Bredesen's Great Support After Kavanaugh Poll's Support: GOP's Blackburn Leads Democrat Bredesen by 5 Points in Tennessee Senate Race Countdown to Elections: Dems to Raise Millions of Dollars | Trump attacks potential challengers | GOP finalizes 2020 congress plans | Democrats see Kavanaughs fight to lead voters at polls | Bloomberg spends a lot on Senate Dems PLUS (D) leads former Tennessee governor Phil Bredesen (D) by 5 points.

Bredesen also faced more bad news after a big, super-democratic PAC said he would not spend resources to beef up his campaign after declaring that he supported Kavanaugh's confirmation.

At the same time, Republican ads seizing the battle of the Supreme Court began to hit the airwaves of Missouri and Montana – two red states with vulnerable Democratic representatives – last week before the Senate voted to confirm Kavanaugh .

In Montana, an announcement of Republican Matt Rosendale hit Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterMcConnell: Kavanaugh Earns "Adrenaline" for Mid-Life Opportunity at GOP Night Care – Presented by National Partnership for Women and Families – New Plans for the GOP 39, Iowa may disqualify people with pre-existing conditions | Health groups urge Azar for funding for migrant children | The map shows opioid deaths by state and county, Cook's political report, shifts three Senate races to Republicans MORE (D) and Democratic senators on their handling of allegations against Kavanaugh.

And in Missouri, Republican Josh Hawley has accused the Senate, the Democrats and his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMcConnell: Kavanaugh wins "adrenaline rush" for mid-career chances at Hillicon Valley GOP: seven Russians charged with hacking | Apple and Amazon servers would have been compromised by China | Pence calls Google to end censored search engine work | Ireland investigates a violation of Facebook on a Republican PAC survey unveils a survey showing Hawley well ahead of McCaskill (D), create a "circus" around the candidacy in a personal ad.

The big unknown, however, is whether the rise of Republican enthusiasm will continue to be felt on Election Day, now that the fight for Kavanaugh's nomination is over.

"If Kavanaugh is confirmed, maybe the Republicans will feel less need to show up," Hill said Friday before the confirmation vote, Michael Cornfield, co-director of the George University poll Washington.

"If he's refused, [Republicans] can exceed the intensity of Democrats, "he added.

But the situation is different for the House, where strategists warn that confirmation of Kavanaugh will likely feed the participation rate of Democrats mid-term.

The fight for the investiture triggered major protests in the Senate. Hundreds of protesters – including many women – were arrested a few days before the final vote.

Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to override Kavanaugh's confirmation, ignoring the credible allegations of sexual assault and the fiery testimony of the candidate last week before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Democrats have a much more favorable map because they are looking to reverse the 23 seats they need to regain control of the House. Many of the key races taking place on the battlefield take place in suburban areas where Republicans have shown signs of struggle to conquer women.

Polls reveal a growing gender divide, with women tending to favor Democrats over Republicans, and outrage over Kavanaugh's appointment could further widen the gap.

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan electoral handicapper, currently qualifies 31 races in the House as "nerd," while 12 are considered "Democrats Endangered", having recently moved a large number of races to the Democrats including seats occupied by representatives. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderDems Announces Third Quarter Fundraising Campaign Cook Cook Report Reports Seven More Dems Election Countdown Races: Dems Wins Millions of Dollars Up for House | Trump attacks potential challengers | GOP finalizes 2020 congress plans | Democrats see Kavanaughs fight to lead voters at polls | Bloomberg spends a lot on Senate Dems PLUS (R-Kan.), Carlos CurbeloCarlos Luis CurbeloGOP spokesman announced that Republicans would lose seats in the House in mid-session Cook's political report moves 7 more races to benefit Dems The Hill's Morning Report – How does the saga affect Kavanaugh will she on the midterms? MORE (R-Fla.), And Mia LoveLudmya (Mia) LoveCook Policy Report Drives 7 more races to Dems The number of GOP women in the House could fall to a level comparable to that of the Second World War. The Republican CEO claims that GOP lacks a good funding mechanism for the candidates, said Republican CEO MORE (R-Utah).

Winds favorable to Democrats manifest themselves differently.

Sixty candidates for the Democratic House broke the $ 1 million mark collected between July and September, 30 broke the $ 2 million mark and eight raised more than $ 3 million, with Ben Ray Luján (DN. Mr.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said Thursday.

And the DCCC itself has also witnessed a surge in fundraising. The group announced Friday that small donations had increased 467% in the last week of September compared to the previous week, the commission said Friday. The total amount collected this week increased by 277% to $ 4.38 million.

Democrat House Democrats have sought in recent weeks to take advantage of Kavanaugh's appointment.

In the 7th district of New Jersey, for example, Democrat Tom Malinowski hit Rep. Leonard LanceLeonard LanceDems Announces Fundraising for Third Quarter GOP considers Kavanaugh as a stimulus for Senate, a danger for House of Representatives sacrifices women and House Republicans with Kavanaugh Plan PLUS (R) in an advertisement to dismiss the allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh.

And in the 6th Georgian district, Democrat Lucy McBath criticized her Republican opponent, Rep. Karen HandelKaren Christine Handel – Night Health Care: Kavanaugh asked if Roe v. Wade was a "law in force" in a leaked email | The Senate will vote next week on the opioid package | Authorities seek to imprison migrant children for an indefinite period | HHS leader, lawmakers get together on price of drugs The worst case scenario for House GOP is a 70-seat wipeout 2 women win Georgia Dem run-offs, extending the series of female candidates PLUS (R-Ga.), For his previous eulogy of Kavanaugh, reporting to the Associated Press in an interview last month that Handel "had defended Brett Kavanaugh and declined to rule on these charges".

Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist based in New York, said that Kavanaugh's confirmation had angered the Democrats and predicted that they would come forward, while Republicans would be less motivated.

"The Republican base will see that she got what she wanted," he said. "I do not think people end up saying thank you."

Reinish said the confirmation would fuel much more than a democratic "blue wave" in November. He predicted instead a "tsunami".

"If the Republicans thought they had already had a problem, they have an earthquake now, because you can not minimize anger and you can not minimize the emotion and you can not minimize the democrats' mobilization after that, "he said.

– Lisa Hagen has contributed