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The people of Orange County woke up Sunday in a new political landscape.
A day before, Democrat Harley Rouda declared victorious in his bid to overthrow the Republican party's 30-year-old representative in the county's 48th coastal district. Saturday night, the Associated Press had called the contest for Rouda.
For the first time in decades, the majority of the county's residents will be represented by a congressional Democrat.
Despite all the historical distinctions the GOP made about Orange County – "behind the orange curtain," the birthplace of Richard Nixon, the cradle of Reagan's conservatism, the House's seven-member House delegation members will only include two Republicans. Depending on how the repressive races of Congress, too close to the call, are shaking, it could be even less.
Matthew Cunningham, a GOP political strategist, said he saw Rouda's victory more as an abnormal victory over a flawed candidate than a lasting loss from a conservative district. Cunningham – who was Republican Communication Director Scott Baugh during his first challenge against Rohrabacher in June – said he thought the CA-48 would be competitive and could even lighten the Republican in 2020 with another candidate. to the GOP.
But Cunningham acknowledged that the results of the 2018 elections indicated that Orange County had completely left the era of Republican rule in the region.
"I may not like it, but I think the era of Republican congressional seats in Orange County is over," Cunningham said. "We need to ask ourselves tough questions about what it means to appeal to a majority of voters."
To be clear, Rohrabacher did not concede his assistance. On Sunday, there were 329,000 ballot papers not counted in the entire county – about one-third of the votes cast – and her campaign said she would wait to comment on the outcome until everything be calculated.
But Rouda's lead has tripled since polling day to 8,510 votes, or 4 percentage points. If its advantage holds as expected, the real estate manager of Laguna Beach will have transformed in blue the district of the most republican houses of the county (R + 8.5).
Rachel Potucek, communications director of the Orange County Democratic Party, called for the 2018 election and Rohrabacher 's loss, "a shot of fame for the extremism of. extreme right "in the county, claiming that this theme was used in several federal, regional and national races. In the region.
"Republicans need to think seriously about the balance between their extreme base that is shrinking and the rest of the population," Potucek said. "Issues such as health care, climate science, firearms safety and human immigration are widely supported."
Fred Whitaker, president of the Orange County Republican Party, described as ridiculous the fact that "it was a justification against right-wing republicanism". He added that he thought Rohrabacher was still connected to his district and Whitaker was not ready to concede the contest. He also noted that Rouda had become more centrist in the general elections than at the primary and wondered about the district's reaction to Rouda's governance if elected.
The GOP still has a solid hold on many local county seats. While Democrats have reduced voters' voter registration advantage to 1.1 percentage points across the county, they control only three of the county's 34 councils. Depending on the way in which a competition is held for the Board of Supervisors, it can also remain a governing body composed exclusively of GOPs.
Rouda has developed a platform to expand access to healthcare and its affordability, and to implement a universal background check for the purchase of firearms. Rohrabacher's is mainly based on a tough anti-immigration platform, accusing his opponent of promoting open borders and warning residents that illegal immigration was threatening their physical and economic security.
In a district where sea level rise threatens coastal communities, Rouda has also campaigned to fight human-induced climate change, while Rohrabacher has labeled human-caused global warming a "hoax", although the scientific community has almost reached consensus.
On Saturday, Rouda went to social media to thank his supporters and claim that his victory was also a victory in a battle of ideas. He said his campaign better understood the needs of the district electorate.
"Our constituents want common sense and real change that really reflects their core values and problems," Rouda tweeted.
Rohrabacher was by no means a common GOP candidate.
The congressman, who has been in office for fifteen years, has often been the subject of controversy over the past two years: for declaring that homeowners should be able to refuse to sell their property to homosexuals, for advocating training in armament for high school students, for meeting with a far-right activist who questioned the history of the Holocaust, and especially for his relations with Russia.
Rohrabacher – who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats – was criticized for his defense of Moscow during the US investigation into the interference of the Kremlin in the 2016 elections. He rejected the conclusions of US intelligence agencies on these Russian efforts. He opposed economic sanctions against Moscow. And he met an accused Russian spy.
After the loss of Rohrabacher, the re-elected Democrat Alan Lowenthal will become the oldest member of the County in the House at six.
Meanwhile, two other Republican-owned House seats in the county still have a slim margin as counted by the remaining ballots.
On Sunday afternoon, Representative Mimi Walters (R-Laguna Beach) had an advantage of 2,029 votes over Democratic challenger Katie Porter in the 45th district, which represented one third of the number of seats occupied by the member. of Congress after polling day. And Republican Young Kim got 2,423 votes ahead of Democrat Gil Cisneros in the 39th district, which also shrank from Tuesday.
"The irony is that the (Democrat) Lou Correa now occupies the safest seat of Congress in the county," Cunningham said.
Whitaker said he hopes the countless votes would go to the GOP, but he admits that if Rohrabacher and other House Republicans lose their seats, the party may have to make some changes.
"If we have lost races, we have to understand what has happened," Whitaker said. "You have to adapt to the preferences of your constituents."
