Heat, weekends, aggression and summer shooting in Chicago-ScienceDaily

A new research study from Arizona State University and Purdue University has been published to examine this phenomenon. The authors reviewed data on nearly six million crimes reported in Chicago between 2001 and 2014 to identify factors that could promote or suppress various types of crime.

"The results have been interesting," said Sherry Towers, a research professor at the Simon A. Levin Center for Mathematical, Computer and Modeling Science at the ASU School of Mathematical Sciences and Statistical Sciences. "We found that most types of crime in Chicago had very different characteristics depending on the time of year, the hour, the day of the week and even the holidays.

The research team, consisting of Siqiao Chen, Abish Malik and David Ebert of the VACCINE Center of Excellence of Purdue University's Veterinary Department, published their findings in the latest online issue of PLOS ONE.

Weekend crime

For batteries and serious assaults, the pattern of days of the week was particularly pronounced, with a significant peak Friday and Saturday. Friday pay days were also correlated with higher battery and assault rates.

"People often go out on weekends," said Towers, "interacting with a wider variety of people than usual days.One day, especially on Friday and Saturday nights, it is likely that the day will be over." alcohol is involved and that it can increase aggression. "

The authors found a heavy reliance on temperature aggression, where higher temperatures than usual – especially in June and July – were associated with a sharp rise in violent crime.

"The confluence of hot summer days and weekends is therefore a perfect storm that brings a series of shootings," said Towers. Conversely, the authors found that rainy and windy days tended to suppress crime. "People just do not want to go out in bad weather."

The authors are experts in the field of "predictive analysis" for the maintenance of order. "If you can tell police where and when to focus their resources, it will allow them to have more effective information and reduce crime," said Ebert. "There are natural time patterns in human activity, but they vary by neighborhood, so it's important to select them and provide that information to the officers, we just do not want to put the cops on points, but the appropriate officers "at the right place at the right time to be on the lookout for certain activities. "

The authors note that while Chicago shootings dominate the news, Chicago's rate of shootings per capita is actually lower than in many other US cities. "Chicago is not even in the top 5," said Towers. "Cities like St. Louis, Baltimore, and New Orleans have much higher rates, but Chicago has a much larger population, which means that even though its rates are lower than those of other cities, their numbers are higher and their which attracts people's attention.Moreover, models based on weather and time of day are important in all communities, even small towns. "

The authors also found that holiday effects were important for many types of crime. Aggressive crime drops dramatically at Christmas and Thanksgiving, for example. "Even criminals spend time with their families," said Towers.

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