Heavy snowfall possible on Stateline

ROCKFORD (WREX) – I hope you have located the snow shovel and the boots.

Let's start with Winter Storm Warning it comes into effect overnight for northern Illinois. This includes Boone, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, and Winnebago Counties. A system coming from the Rocky Mountain Front is due to visit north of Illinois tomorrow. This could result in a first significant snowfall in the season area. If you stay home, several snowy episodes during the month of November have officially awarded Rockford 3.9. "

The forecast for tonight is favorable for dry conditions until midnight. If you have not had the chance to go to Stroll on State, it lasts until 9 pm and the weather is nice. Temperatures drop slowly in the 1930s, with breezes that sometimes seem to cool with the wind. Precipitation remains until tomorrow morning.

Here is the configuration for this storm:

1. The bottom of the front line wins the night and will be positioned on northern Missouri / West Illinois from here tomorrow morning.
2. Upstream of this system, the Gulf of Mexico's moisture is pumped into the Midwest.
3. As low pressure settles, cold Arctic air will be channeled.
4. The jet stream will be located just to the south, which helps to provide the necessary lift for heavy rainfall (the same rise in the spring can lead to violent storms).

These four things are essentially the ingredients needed for a snowy 'cake'. This strong snow axis will most likely develop in southeastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Models have agreed much more on the path of this system. This means increased confidence that a major winter storm will impact the Stateline.

As for accumulations, there is some uncertainty. At present, it seems that a broad band of 6 "-8" is likely coming from the southeast of Freeport, across much of Central Winnebago County, extending to the south across Lee and Ogle counties. This snow luck of 6 "-8" s extends as far east as the northern suburbs of Chicago. Outside this area, total snowfall becomes a little less certain, especially southeast of the Stateline. The snow falls quickly towards Joliet and Kankakee. The same steep slope is possible in the most northwestern part of Illinois.

Uncertainty regarding (1) the exact course and (2) the location of strong snow bands could potentially result in snow totals being higher or lower than those with the heaviest snow. is currently scheduled (19:30 Saturday). If the trajectory of this storm moves 50 miles to the north or south, this will obviously have an extended impact on the totals of snowfall. Since this storm is still developing in the Rocky Mountain front, there is still a lot of ground to cover before it can give an exact track with much confidence.

The other proverbial fly of ointment is the development of large strips of snow. It is almost certain that somewhere in the northwestern quadrant of this system, strong snow bands will develop. Places where these strong snow bands develop could really increase these totals of snow. The 6 "-8" forecast could be closer to one foot if these snow bands really go up. With most winter storms like this, it is extremely difficult to predict the location of these snow bands. In many cases, the event takes place before certainty can be given about the location of the heavy snow bands, mainly because it depends heavily on the location of the low point at 700 mb (jargon of the technical meteorology).

In summary: tomorrow is a busy day of travel for many, as for Sunday after Thanksgiving. Many people will probably be on the road all day tomorrow. This high-impact storm could actually cause traffic jams all day long. It is extremely important to keep an eye on the forecasts, as minor adjustments and adjustments will likely be made in the next 24 hours.