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WASHINGTON – As Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh's dramatic confirmation process advances, five moderate but still undecided senators will either send him to the country's highest court or give a staggering defeat to President Trump and the Republican Party. derail his appointment.
Their calculations were completed several weeks ago when Christine Blasey Ford accused Judge Kavanaugh of having sexually assaulted her at an evening in high school, which he unequivocally denied.
Now, not only must senators be asking themselves to confirm Mr. Kavanaugh based on how his qualifications fit with the attitude of their constituents, but they must also weigh the most treacherous political burden: his credibility and temperament at the #MeToo era. multiple charges of sexual misconduct.
Three are Republicans: Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Jeff Flake of Arizona, none of them facing political pressures related to her reelection this year. And two Democrats struggle to keep their seats in the Red States: Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin III of West Virginia.
This is how each senator will weigh his vote.
Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska
Ms. Murkowski and Ms. Collins have earned a reputation as a moderate Republican who is not afraid to break with his party in crucial moments, especially regarding the right to abortion. She and Ms. Collins emerged last year as key votes that resulted in the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
But to determine whether Mr. Kavanaugh needs to be confirmed, Ms. Murkowski, who will not be eligible for re-election until 2022, has set up her own test.
"We are now in a situation where there is no question of whether Judge Kavanaugh is qualified or not," Murkowski said last week in a statement. extended interview on the Capitol. "It's about whether a woman who has been a victim at some point in her life is to believe."
Ms. Murkowski must also consider the vocal opposition of the Alaska Natives, which is one of her main constituencies, to Mr. Kavanaugh's confirmation. Mr. Kavanaugh's perspective on the rights of indigenous peoples emerged during his confirmation hearings after Senator Mazie K. Hirono, Democrat of Hawaii, who issued a previously secret email in which Mr. Kavanaugh had questioned Native Hawaiians as a protected group.
Native Americans in Alaska are strong supporters of Mrs. Murkowski. The Federation of Native Peoples of Alaska, which represents 186 federally recognized tribes in the state, raised $ 1.6 million and gained popular support for it in 2010, when it was the first time it was in the state. she led an election campaign for reelection after the victory of an opponent of the Tea Party in Republican. primary.
Ms. Murkowski was the second Republican to join Mr. Flake last week when he had called the F.B.I. investigate the charges against Judge Kavanaugh.
Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine
Although Ms. Collins supports the right to abortion, she indicated that she thought that Judge Kavanaugh would defend the Roe v. Wade, citing a discussion in which he assured him that he thought Roe was a "well-established law". She also rejected an email that he had sent. in 2003, which Democrats tried to use as evidence that the judge is anti-Roe. Judge Kavanaugh wrote that it was "not sure that all jurists consider Roe as the law of the country in force at the Supreme Court level, because it can always overrule its precedent and that three current judges would do it. "
Previously, Ms. Collins voted for Judge Kavanaugh in 2006, when he was appointed by President George W. Bush to the United States Court of Appeals for the Federal District Circuit of Columbia.
But Collins is one of the Senators who has been under the most pressure from protesters to vote against Kavanaugh. A group of Liberal activists created a crowdfunding campaign that raised more than $ 1.75 million. Donors are committed to getting their opponent to confirm their choice. Still others sent thousands of hangers to the senator's office in Maine.
This pressure could have a different effect than expected: Ms. Collins strongly criticized these efforts, describing crowdfunding as "the equivalent of an attempted bribery".
Senator Jeff Flake, Republican of Arizona
Flake, a frequent critic of Trump, is stepping down from the Senate this year after deciding not to run again. As a result, his vote is immune from political pressure on his peers.
Last week after the hearing, Mr. Flake stated that listening to Judge Kavanaugh and Dr. Blasey's testimony had left him with "as much doubt as certainty."
The senator made it clear that he was inclined to vote for Judge Kavanaugh unless the F.B.I. The investigation reveals that the judge committed sexual misconduct or lied to the committee. And only a few hours before Mr. Flake dramatically fought for the F.B.I. To investigate Kavanaugh J.'s allegations, the senator announced that he would support the judge's confirmation.
"I want to support him. I am a conservative, he is a conservative judge, "Flake told reporters last Friday. "But I want a process that we can be proud of and I think the country has to be behind."
But before that, Mr. Flake had proposed his own simple test: "If you believe it, you vote no."
Senator Joe Manchin, West Virginia Democrat
Mr. Manchin and Ms. Heitkamp are fighting a tough battle of reelection in the Red States and are trying to show voters that they are not blindly aligned with the Democratic Party.
In 2017, Mr. Manchin voted for the appointment of Mr. Justice Neil M. Gorsuch, Mr. Trump's first Supreme Court candidate, and a vote in favor of Justice Kavanaugh could contribute to the Senator's campaign.
The West Virginia Senator's main problem concerns health care: Mr. Manchin, who has repeatedly voted against attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, emphasized that he wished that the courts preserve the protections provided by law for people with pre-existing health problems. .
After meeting with Judge Kavanaugh, Senator In a radio interview in July, he said he was not leaning in any particular direction, but that he felt the judge had "all the qualifications."
As a result of charges against Judge Kavanaugh, Mr. Manchin was speechless. Last week, however, he issued a statement calling the process of confirming "partisan and divisive", while also supporting delaying the process to deal with a crisis. investigation.
In an interview on Monday at WV News, a local news agency, Mr Manchin said he would base his vote on the findings of the investigation.
"If there is nothing conclusive about it," he said, "then it will be based on the merit of his qualification".
Senator Heidi Heitkamp, Democrat of North Dakota
Ms. Heitkamp faces a competitive challenge from Rep. Kevin Cramer, a Republican ally close to the President, in a state that Mr. Trump won by 36 points in 2016.
A few weeks before three women appear to accuse Kavanaugh J. of sexual misconduct, Ms. Heitkamp, who voted for Justice Gorsuch's confirmation, told reporters she had not seen any red flags yet. in his file. In July, she stated that he appeared to be a "fairly standard conservative judge" and "highly qualified".
But Ms. Heitkamp has since made comments suggesting that she was uncomfortable with the allegations made against Judge Kavanaugh.
At a campaign stop on Friday in Grand Forks, North Dakota, she told the Associated Press that "a lot of lawyers in America can sit on the court "and stressed that the standard for judging the appointment of Judge Kavanaugh should not be reasonable doubt."
Mrs. Heitkamp carefully plays the misfortune in front of the incendiary remarks of her opponent. Mr. Cramer, taking a page from Mr. Trump's playbook, denounced Dr. Blasey's allegations as "even more absurd" than those alleged by Anita F. Hill against Justice Clarence Thomas in 1991, adding that It was supposedly an attempt or something that never went anywhere. "
The senator took advantage of these remarks to attack the congressman for posting "a staggering lack of empathy for the victims and the trauma they have suffered."
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