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Some aspects of MLB's free agency are simpler than others. One of the least simple parts is the presence of qualifying offers. Essentially, a team can make a "qualifying offer" on a one-year contract to an impending self-employed player, the amount of which is identical to that of the league (this year, it raises to 17.9 millions of dollars). This player then has ten days to decide whether or not to accept this offer. If the do accepts (which has not happened often), they sign the contract for one year. If they do not agree, they become a free agent, but the clubs that sign them will lose a draft pick and their previous club will win one. Which choices are won and lost is a little complicated, so we'll just point you to that link as a reference.
The deadline for the extension of the qualifying offers was today and seven players in total have received them. Here is a quick overview of each player who has received them, as well as predictions on what they will decide.
Bryce Harper
This was probably the most obvious call among potential quality assurance candidates. Harper is at his peak and is one of the two best performing free agents on the market this season off with Manny Machado. He did not have the year of the march he probably hoped for, but he has an impressive production track record, he is young and it is easy to dream as one of the best players of the game. Scott Boras is also his agent and he will charge.
Prediction: No chance, he accepts the offer of qualification.
Dallas Keuchel
The Astros had some interesting choices. Marwin Gonzalez and Charlie Morton were also OQ candidates, but the team decided to offer only one offer to Keuchel. For his part, Keuchel won the Cy Young in 2015 and has played a very important role in the success of the Astros in recent years. On the other hand, his 2018 season was not the best and he has some persistent neck injury problems that will give some teams a break before giving him a big salary.
Prediction: not likely to accept the qualifying offer.
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Few would have predicted that Ryu would get an OQ even in recent years due to injury issues and the number of options that the Dodgers seem to have at their disposal. However, Ryu was dominant on his return from injury and did a great job for LA in the playoffs. He has every interest in accepting the QO, to be paid, to prove that he is healthy and productive next year, and then to enter the market next year without the QO baggage because players can only receive one qualifying offer.
Prediction: will probably not accept the qualification offer, but it's pretty tight.
Yasmani Grandal
Grandal is about to be the best receiver on the free agent market. Given the shortage of good strikers in the major leagues, it's a good position. That said, he did not do himself a favor for his playoff performance, which was ….. forgettable. However, he has been one of the most consistent players both behind the marble and ground among reclaimers in recent seasons. So he should sign a pretty good contract before it's all over.
Prediction: likely to not accept the offer of qualification.
Craig Kimbrel
He has not been particularly good in the playoffs and his best years may be behind him, but the renowned levers still have a market and still seem to be paid. Kimbrel is no exception. The QO will spoil his results, but his record is eloquent and he will sign a final important contract.
Prediction: will not accept the qualification offer.
Patrick Corbin
Corbin came back from an injury and quickly returned to form as one of the National League's best pitchers in 2018. The Diamondbacks may have cracked in the final months of the season, but Corbin did not do it. He will become a free agent and will probably be the most sought after pitcher on the free agent market, with the Yankees appearing to be in daily contact with him.
Prediction: will not accept the qualification offer.
ONE J. Pollock
It's an interesting choice here too. Pollock started the year with gangbusters, but was hit by another injury, as was too often the case with him. However, his injuries are rather monstrous in nature and do not necessarily indicate a chronic problem. That's another guy who could be good at signing his QO and trying his luck to build his value in 2019 and get to the market this year. However, it stands out in this year's free player-agent harvest, so the odds seem to be in favor of its decline.
Prediction: The qualifying offer will probably not accept, but it's not a slam dunk.
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