Here's a little secret about the Texas Senate race

Clearly, a seat held by Republicans in danger – particularly in an election cycle where Democrats have very few opportunities for recovery – is a major development. Democrats need 3 seats to regain the majority in the Senate, a prospect that seemed impossible at the beginning of the 2018 round, knowing that they were defending 26 seats, compared to only 9 for Republicans. But as CNN's Terence Burlij points out here, the possibility of a Texas pickup makes math and the democrats' path to the majority possible.

This in itself would be remarkable. But the competitiveness of Texas also means something very important and less obvious: there could be less Republican money in other states if this money must be spent to save Cruz.

It does not matter when, say, the race in the North Dakota Senate becomes surprisingly competitive. (This is an assumption: North Dakota has been competitive year-round and is now leaning towards Republicans.) Donâ € ™ t. Media markets in North Dakota are simply not very expensive. Which means you can make a major statewide television purchase without significantly reducing that $ 2 billion pot.

Think of it this way: in 2014, Cornyn was re-elected during a walk. He spent $ 14.7 million. Two years ago, Senator Heidi Heitkamp spent $ 5.5 million to win the seat of the Senate of North Dakota with 50%, one of the most competitive and tight senatorial races in the country that year. . It's just apples and oranges in terms of what to do with the voters of Texas against North Dakota.

Which brings us to Cruz's current situation. While he and O & Rourke had amassed roughly the same amount as of June 30 ($ 23 million), Cruz still had $ 9 million in the bank, compared with $ 14 million for O. Rourke. Thus, the incumbent operator had already invested $ 5 million in the middle of the summer. This difference will have to be offset by a combination of party committees and super PACs, particularly by the Senate Leadership Fund, which is closely related to the GOP's leadership in the chamber.

And make no mistake: the party committees – especially the National Republican Senate Committee – will spend a lot on Cruz. This committee is basically a protection body for the incumbents. His first goal is to help Republican incumbents to get re-elected. And Cruz is one of the most prominent members of either party – in November.

Add to that and you get this: Texas becomes competitive is a major financial problem for Republicans who are trying to hang on to their Senate majority. If the money – and, above, we're probably talking about spending $ 10 million north – must be diverted to save Cruz, it means the same money has to be diverted from pickup opportunities. And that means the chances of Republicans capitalizing on these pickup opportunities are diminishing – perhaps slightly, perhaps more importantly.

Cruz's inability to put O & # Rourke apart was not only important in Texas, but also in West Virginia, Missouri and Indiana.